Metals fell nearly across the board, Shanghai tin led the decline, London tin and Shanghai silver both fell more than 4%, and industrial silicon rose 1.07% [SMM Afternoon Review]
【Copper Summit Live Broadcast】2024 Copper Market Supply, Demand and Price Outlook Analysis of the Global Economic Situation Interpretation of Recycled Copper Import and Export Policy
SMM April 23:
In terms of the metal market:
As of the midday close, the base metals in the domestic market fell across the board. Shanghai tin fell 6.57%, Shanghai lead fell 2.55%, Shanghai copper fell 1.92%, Shanghai nickel fell 1.68%, and Shanghai zinc fell 1.41%. Shanghai Aluminum fell 1.53%. The main alumina futures fell 0.49%. In addition, the main industrial silicon contract rose 1.07%. The main lithium carbonate futures contract rose 0.18%.
The black series is mostly green, iron ore fell 0.23%, the thread fell slightly, the hot coil was flat at 3823 yuan / ton, and the stainless steel fell 2.07%. In terms of double coke, coking coal and coke fell by 1.82% and 0.76% respectively.
In terms of external metals, as of 11:35, LME metals fell across the board. London tin fell 4.27%, and London nickel fell 2.78%. London aluminum and London zinc both fell, down 1.46% and 1.32% respectively. London lead fell 0.88%, and London copper fell 1%.
In terms of precious metals, as of 11:35, COMEX gold fell 1.31%; COMEX silver fell 1.19%. In terms of domestic precious metals, as of noon close, Shanghai gold fell 3.43%, and Shanghai silver fell 4.63%. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund (ETF), announced that as of Monday (April 22), its gold holdings were flat at 831.9 tons. In ounces, the open interest is 26,746,569.30 ounces.
In addition, as of noon closing, the main futures of European line container shipping were reported at 2583.4 points, down 0.25%.
As of 11:35 on April 23, some futures at noon:
》SMM metal spot price on April 23
Spot & Fundamentals
Copper: Today, Guangdong 1# electrolytic copper spot to the current month contract discount of 270 yuan/ton-210 yuan/ton, the average price discount of 240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, wet copper discount of 350-310 yuan/ton, the average price discount of 330 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong 1# electrolytic copper was 78,430 yuan/ton, down 1,725 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the average price of wet copper was 78,340 yuan/ton, down 1,725 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong's inventory has been declining for 5 consecutive days, and the decrease in arrivals is the main reason. Inventories continue to decline superimposed copper prices have also fallen significantly, holders want to lift the price of shipments, in the morning Pingshui copper price of 240 yuan / ton, but downstream receivers are worried that the future market copper prices still have room to fall and are unwilling to replenish, holders can only continue to lower the premium to be able to trade......》Click to view details
Macroscopic
Domestic:
China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on April 22 that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit China from April 24 to 26 at the invitation of Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs. On the same day, the person in charge of the Department of North America and Oceania of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs gave a background briefing to the media on the situation of the visit. Mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation have always been the fundamental principles of China's view and handling of China-US relations. Putting peace first, stability and trustworthiness are what China has followed in handling China-US relations this year. During Secretary Blinken's visit, China focused on five major goals. First, establish a correct understanding. Second, strengthen dialogue. Third, we need to effectively manage differences. Fourth, promote mutually beneficial cooperation. Fifth, we need to share the responsibilities of major countries.
According to the website of the National Development and Reform Commission, on April 18, Li Chunlin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, presided over a special meeting to study and promote the key points of the next stage of the construction of a unified national market. The meeting demanded that promoting the construction of a unified national market is a strategic and overall work, and the relevant parties should earnestly improve their political positions and conscientiously implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council. It is necessary to adhere to the combination of long and short, treat both the symptoms and the root causes, further put forward pragmatic and effective measures, persistently do a good job in the next stage of key work, and promote the construction of a unified national market to achieve tangible new results.
According to the Qinghai Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, in order to accelerate the cultivation of the salt lake industry, the empowerment of science and technology, the guarantee of factors and other key work, the Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology in accordance with the provincial party committee and the provincial government decision-making and deployment, to ensure the full implementation of various tasks, and steadily promote the construction of a "world-class salt lake industrial base". From January to March, the province's key products potash, lithium carbonate and lithium metal produced 1.492 million tons, 34,000 tons and 135 tons respectively, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, 59.9% and 86.6% respectively. In terms of strengthening planning guidance, the Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology drafted the "Plan for Building a World-class Salt Lake Industrial Base" and the "Outline of the Overall Plan for the Green Industrial Park of Golmud Salt Lake"; in terms of promoting industrial development, it drafted the "Plan for the Second Meeting of the Leading Group for Jointly Building a World-class Salt Lake Industrial Base in Qinghai and Field Research Activities" and "Key Points for Accelerating the Construction of a World-class Salt Lake Industrial Base in 2024", and prepared for the second meeting of the leading group jointly built by the province and the ministry. Implementation Plan for the Construction of Standard System of World-class Salt Lake Industrial Base", and recently promoted the formulation of 20 local and enterprise standards, including technical specifications for ore stockpiling and mining for potash production.
On April 23, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1059 yuan per US dollar per dollar
On the US dollar:
As of 11:35, the U.S. dollar index was at 106.11, down 0.03%. A number of policymakers, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, were tight-lipped last week about when interest rates would be cut, but instead said monetary policy would need to remain restrictive for longer, adding cold water to hopes of a sharp rate cut this year. Markets await the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for March, which will be released this week, to further determine the trajectory of monetary policy. The data is the Fed's preferred indicator of inflation.
In terms of other currencies:
ECB officials have maintained their plans to cut interest rates multiple times this year, and tensions in the Middle East have kept oil prices high, even as higher inflation in the United States has delayed the Fed's shift to easing.
The pound has recently accelerated its decline as inflationary pressures in the UK have eased and the Bank of England's outlook has turned dovish. Bank of England Deputy Governor Ramsden said on Friday that UK inflation could be lower than the central bank's recent forecast. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said last week that he expects inflation to fall to the central bank's 2% target next month.
In terms of data:
Today, the preliminary SPGI manufacturing PMI in France, Germany and the euro area in April, the revised monthly rate of construction permits in the United States in March, and the preliminary SPGI manufacturing PMI in April in the United States will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that the OECD will publish a study on the French economy.
Crude oil: Crude oil futures rose slightly, as of 11:35, U.S. oil rose 0.44%, and Brent oil fell 0.45%. Markets continue to assess the risks posed by geopolitical concerns in the Middle East.
Some analysts pointed out that there are still many risks in the oil market. ANZ analysts highlighted that the US approval of new sanctions on Iran's oil sector expands the scope of current sanctions to include foreign ports, vessels and refineries that knowingly process or transport Iranian crude. "At the moment, the geopolitical backdrop is still fraught with a lot of risks, so there will obviously be a lot of volatility until the situation becomes clearer. Barclays analysts said Monday that Barclays' risk to the fair value estimate of $90 a barrel for Brent crude this year remains skewed to the upside. "The looming threat of geopolitical risks spreading to oil market fundamentals has largely receded, but the overall trend of this risk since October last year is worrying," the analysts said in a note. ”
U.S. crude inventories are expected to rise last week, while distillate and gasoline inventories are expected to decline, a preliminary survey released on Monday showed. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release the weekly industry inventory report at 4:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release the official weekly inventory report at 22:30 Beijing time on Wednesday.
Spot market at a glance:
►Although copper prices have plummeted, the downstream is still reluctant to purchase more, and the spot premium continues to fall [SMM South China Copper Spot]
►The main contract of Shanghai aluminum fluctuates downward, and the aluminum spot may still maintain a discount market in the short term [SMM aluminum spot afternoon review]
►Aluminum prices exceed 20,000 yuan, is there still room for alumina prices to rise?【SMM Analysis】
►Recycled lead: holders are less willing to ship at low prices, and downstream companies are cautious [SMM Lead Afternoon Review]
►Shanghai Zinc: Zinc prices fell less than expected, and the improvement of spot transactions was limited [SMM Afternoon Review]
►Shanghai tin prices fell sharply, and the spot market picked up [SMM tin afternoon comment]
►[SMM Daily Review] Lithium carbonate prices fell slightly on April 23