As we all know, according to the target use, the bus industry can be divided into three market segments: highways, buses and school buses (other types of special buses, this article will not analyze). Highway buses mainly include operating (generally refers to fixed routes, mainly profit-oriented passenger cars, such as passenger shuttles and tourist line operating buses, etc.) and non-operating (not for profit, such as unit commuter vehicles, etc.), which is currently the main part of the bus market; and public buses generally refer to urban public buses; school buses are specially used to transport students to and from school.
So how will the three bus segments of highways, buses, and school buses perform in the first quarter of 2024?
According to the data of China Bus Statistical Information Network, in the first quarter of 2024, the cumulative sales of buses over 5 meters will be 29,772 (2,152 other types of special buses have been excluded, the same below), an increase of 44.78% compared with 20,564 in the first quarter of last year. Thereinto:
-- The cumulative sales of highway buses in the first quarter of 2024 will be 21,399, an increase of 68.26% compared with 12,718 in the first quarter of last year;
-- The cumulative sales of buses in the first quarter of 2024 will be 7,905, an increase of 13.32% compared with 6,976 in the first quarter of last year;
-- The cumulative sales of school buses in the first quarter of 2024 will be 468, an increase of 46.12% compared with 870 in the first quarter of last year.
The following bus terminal network briefly analyzes the main characteristics of the three major bus market segments in the first quarter of 2024.
First, the highway bus leads the way, which is the biggest driving force to promote the growth of the overall bus market
Table 1, the cumulative sales volume, year-on-year, proportion and year-on-year increase and decrease of the three market segments of highways, buses and school buses in the first quarter of 2024 (data source: China Bus Statistical Information Network):
The chart above shows that in the first quarter of 2024, in the three major market segments of roads, buses, and school buses above 5 meters:
-- The cumulative sales of highway buses were 21,399, a year-on-year increase of 68.26%, leading the three major market segments of buses, accounting for more than 7 percent of the overall bus market share (71.88%), which is the "pillar" of the bus market, and the proportion increased by 10.03 percentage points year-on-year, which is the only market segment that increased year-on-year. It can be seen that highway buses lead the bus market, and the development momentum is the most fierce, is the bus industry this year the most "hot" market segment, but also become the biggest driving force to promote the growth of the mainland bus industry in the first quarter of this year.
According to the analysis of the bus terminal network, it is mainly supported by the following factors:
First, since the beginning of this year, the mainland tourism market has been extremely hot, and the demand for highway passenger cars and passenger cars has increased significantly.
Since the beginning of 2024, especially during the Spring Festival, the mainland's tourism industry has shown a "blowout" growth trend, and the demand for tourist highway buses has risen sharply, especially for road buses with comfort, customization, personalization and energy saving.
Second, the policy drives the integrated development of rural "passengers, freight and mail", and the demand for rural highway buses increases;
Since the beginning of 2024, the state has increased its efforts to support the integrated development of rural "passengers, freight and mail", and issued new bus product technical specifications suitable for the development of rural passengers, goods and mail in a timely manner, which has effectively promoted the growth of the road bus market below 9 meters in the first quarter of this year.
Third, the mainstream bus enterprises and highway buses have increased significantly year-on-year.
According to the data of China Bus Statistical Information Network, in the first quarter of 2024, the sales of highway buses of mainstream bus companies such as "Two Links and Three Dragons", Ankai, and Foton Ouhui have increased significantly year-on-year (see the figure below, including the sales of traditional power road buses above 6 meters)
As can be seen in the figure above, Yutong, Zhongtong, Jinlong, Ankai, Foton Ouhui and Yaxing Bus in the first quarter of this year more than 6 meters of traditional power highway bus sales increased by more than 1 times year-on-year, which undoubtedly provided strong support for the substantial growth of the mainland highway bus industry in the first quarter of this year.
-- bus sales of the second largest, cumulative sales of 7,905, a year-on-year increase of 13.32%, underperforming the overall bus market, is the second largest year-on-year growth of the market segment, accounting for the first quarter of this year's bus market share of 26.55%, accounting for a year-on-year decrease of 7.37 percentage points, is the largest year-on-year decrease in the proportion of subdivision models.
According to the analysis of the bus terminal network, the main reasons are:
First, although the bus market is gradually recovering, the momentum of recovery is still insufficient.
Due to the fact that the electrification process of buses in some large cities has almost been completed, the market is almost saturated, and the demand for new energy buses is less;
Second, due to the squeeze of multiple urban transportation vehicles (such as urban rail transit, private cars, online car-hailing, electric bicycles, etc.), some passenger sources in the bus passenger market are diverted, resulting in a decrease in the demand for public transport in the terminal market;
Third, the local finance is still short of "silver", and more funds can not be used to purchase buses;
Fourth, the performance of some mainstream new energy bus companies is not very "powerful".
According to the data of China Bus Statistical Information Network, in the first quarter of 2024, the cumulative sales of new energy buses above 6 meters were 6,921, a slight increase of 2.46% year-on-year, and among the top 6 new energy bus sales companies in the first quarter of this year, only Yutong and Suzhou Jinlong rose higher (up 43.9% and 79.13% respectively), while BYD grew but only in single digits (7%); Foton Ouhui, Golden Passenger Car and King Long Bus all had negative year-on-year increases (-37.02% respectively, - 21.13%、-41.18%）。 It can be seen that in the first quarter of this year, most of the market performance of mainstream new energy bus companies is not very "powerful", which is an important reason for the poor recovery of the mainland bus market in the first quarter of this year, and the largest year-on-year decrease in the overall bus market.
-- The cumulative sales of school buses are only 460, the least, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 46.21%, which is the only segment of the bus market in the first quarter of this year, which can be described as a "cold door", accounting for 1.57% of the overall bus market. And the proportion decreased by 2.66 percentage points year-on-year, which was the second largest year-on-year decrease in the proportion of subdivided models.
According to the analysis of the bus terminal network, the main reason is that the current local financial constraints are affected and the purchase of school buses is compressed. In addition, the number of infant schools has shrunk due to the decline in the birth rate of young children in recent years, resulting in a sharp decline in the number of car purchases.
According to public statistics, in 2023 alone, there will be 14,800 fewer kindergartens in mainland China compared with 2022, and since 2024, the wave of kindergarten closures has reappeared.
The sharp reduction in the number of kindergartens is a direct cause of the sharp decline in the school bus market in the first quarter of this year.
Second, the highway bus 5-6 meters is the best-selling, the bus 8-9 meters is the most favored, and the school bus 7-8 meters is the most popular
1. Highway buses: 5-6 meters leading, 8-9 meters leading
Table 2, sales volume of highway buses in each length segment in the first quarter of 2024 and year-on-year (data source: China Bus Statistical Information Network):
The above table shows that in the first quarter of 2024, the sales volume of road buses of each length section:
——5-6 meters cumulative sales of 7,892 units, ranking first, leading the overall bus market, which shows that in the current highway bus market, small passenger cars are the main models.
According to the analysis of the bus terminal network, the main reasons are:
First, with the outbreak of the tourism market, the demand for 5-6 meter small highway buses connected to scenic spots has increased;
Second, the tourism market is showing a "small group charter fever", and there is more and more demand for 5-6 meter small tourist group cars;
Third, in order to save costs, tourist passenger transport companies will replace some of the previous large cars with small highway buses.
It is the superposition of the above three factors that led to the lead of 5-6 meters of small road buses in the first quarter of this year.
——8-9 meters of passenger cars increased by 239% year-on-year, leading the rise of models of each length section, indicating that 8-9 meters of medium-sized highway buses have the greatest growth potential.
According to the analysis, it is mainly caused by the outbreak of the tourism market, which has led to an increase in the demand for medium-sized tourist road buses.
2. Buses: 8-9 meters topped the list, and 7-8 meters led the rise
Table 3, the sales volume of buses in each length segment in the first quarter of 2024 and year-on-year (data source: China Bus Statistical Information Network):
The above table shows that in the first quarter of 2024, the sales volume of road buses of each length section:
——A total of 2,186 vehicles of 8-9 meters were sold, ranking first in the sales list of various subdivisions, which shows that the current third- and fourth-tier cities and urban and rural public transport markets are a key demand focus of the public transport industry;
——7-8 meters soared by 457.1% year-on-year, leading all subdivided models of the bus industry, indicating that the current 7-8 meters urban and rural bus market demand has great potential.
3、校车：7-8米夺冠，11-12米领涨
Table 4, the sales volume of school buses in each length segment in the first quarter of 2024 and the year-on-year increase (data source: China Bus Statistical Information Network):
The above table shows that in the first quarter of 2024, the sales of school bus models of various length segments:
——The cumulative sales of 7-8 meters models were 199 units, winning the sales championship, indicating that the main models of school bus demand are 7-8 meters medium-sized buses.
——The 11-12 meter model led the increase by 400% year-on-year, but because the sales base of the model in this section is too small, the year-on-year increase does not explain the problem.
To sum up, in the first quarter of this year, highways, buses and school buses in the three major bus market segments PK, highway buses are the most "hot", so they have become the most shining "star" in the bus market!
In the next second quarter of 2024, how will the three major market segments of highways, buses, and school buses be interpreted?