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In recent years, the price of gold has soared, which has attracted widespread attention and discussion in the market. According to statistics, in the two decades from 2002 to 2022, the price of gold has increased fourfold. In 2023 alone, the domestic gold price has risen by more than 15%, and from the beginning of 2024 to mid-April, the domestic gold price has risen by about 18%.
According to a report by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun on April 20, the gold price once stood at $2,400 per ounce on the 19th. In view of the increase in turbulent factors such as geopolitical risks and inflation, financial institutions have successively raised their gold price forecasts. Bank of America raised its forecast for gold prices in 2025 from $2,150 to $2,500 an ounce, and even pointed to the possibility of a $3,000 hit. Goldman Sachs believes that gold could rise to $2,700 by the end of the year.
At present, the domestic gold price has risen to 700. But some netizens said: "Now that the price of gold has risen, I don't dare to go to the counter." Shuibei's gold jewelry is not much worse than the brand, now it is less than 600 yuan per gram, and the brand is already more than 700 yuan, so it can't be done at all. Some people also said: "It's so expensive, who dares to buy it, let alone a gold store, and Shuibei doesn't buy it." ”
Gold has long been a "safe haven" for investors, but now the surge in prices has led to a re-examination of gold's value. On the one hand, investors are worried that high gold prices will lead to a market bubble, and on the other hand, ordinary consumers are also beginning to consider whether it is worth buying gold jewelry.
Demand structure: Gold jewellery accounts for the highest proportion
According to the China Gold Association, gold jewellery is the largest consumer market for gold, with gold consumption in the first three quarters of 2023 being 552.04 tonnes, accounting for 66.11%; Gold consumption in the bar and coin segment was 222.37t, accounting for 26.63%; Gold consumption in the industrial and other sectors was 60.66t, accounting for 7.26%.
Market share of China's gold industry
From the perspective of raw gold output, in 2022, the output of raw gold in mainland China will be 372.048 tons, and the gold output of Zijin Mining will be 56.36 tons, accounting for 15.15%, ranking first; Hengbang shares followed, with gold output of 46.76 tons, accounting for 12.57%; Shandong Gold ranked third with a market share of 10.39%.
Analysis of the development trend of China's gold industry
With the continuous recovery of the national economy, the domestic gold supply has resumed growth, and the demand for gold market has also continued to expand. In the future, we will increase gold exploration, tap the potential of domestic resources, expand the supply of overseas resources, and give full play to the advantages of development finance to help the rapid development of the industry.
Ren Zeping, a well-known economist, said: "This round of gold's rise cannot be explained by risk aversion and the dollar index. I think the core reason is the distrust of credit currencies dominated by the US dollar, so what is the fact that gold and bitcoin are soaring to record highs at the same time, part of de-dollarization. ”
Ma Yinchen, an analyst in the precious metals industry, believes that the performance of unlai gold prices will be dominated by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Factors such as geopolitical risks and central bank holdings of gold reserves will continue to support gold prices, but whether and to what level the rally will depend on when the Fed switches from raising rates to cutting rates.
Note: This article is for content dissemination only and does not constitute any investment advice!
Prospective Economist APP Information Group
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