The European continent has been turbulent recently, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has accurately mastered European countries with three clever moves, which has also moved the United States. The geopolitical game surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict has escalated to unprecedented tensions. What kind of means enabled Emperor Pu to calmly cope with the pressure from many sides on the international stage?
1. Withdraw from the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty and restart nuclear deterrence
In the face of joint economic sanctions and military aid from the United States and Europe, Putin knows that it is difficult to compete with conventional forces alone. In 2022, Russia announced that it would temporarily withdraw from the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty signed with the United States, a move that was like a shock bomb dropped on the international community. The treaty aims to limit the nuclear stockpiles of the United States and Russia and ensure global nuclear balance, peace and stability. Russia's withdrawal means that the United States and the West will lose the right to verify Russia's nuclear arsenal, and the haze of nuclear threat will once again hang over Europe. Although the United States is unwilling, it can only sigh secretly, and Putin's move can be said to be directly aimed at the core of the European security system.
Second, the Wagner Corps moved to open up a second battlefield
On the front line of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Putin skillfully used the card of the Wagner Corps to turn it from a "rebel" into a strategic pawn. The mysterious return of corps leader Prigozhin has triggered a re-examination of Wagner's relationship with Russian officials. After a seeming rupture, Wagner was arranged to train with local troops on the territory of Belarus in preparation for a possible military operation. Belarus is in a special location, which happens to be behind the weak Ukrainian defenses, and once Wagner launches an offensive here, it will deal a fatal blow to the Ukrainian army and effectively deter the surrounding Baltic states. Through the script of "rebellion-reconciliation", Putin successfully and covertly deployed this private armed force in key positions, laying the groundwork for its surprise victory at a critical moment.
3. Suspend the Black Sea grain deal and choke the lifeblood of Ukraine's economy
The Black Sea grain deal is another powerful card in Putin's hands. In the face of repeated provocations by Ukraine against the Crimean bridge, Putin decisively suspended the agreement and regarded all ships bound for Ukrainian ports as potential military targets, a move that almost amounted to control of the Black Sea shipping lanes and cut off Ukraine's lifeline for external strategic goods. Appeals and threats from Ukraine and Western countries failed to shake Putin's resolve, and ports along the Black Sea coast were devastated, and grain export routes were almost completely blocked. Coupled with the implementation of the grain embargo by Poland and other countries, Ukraine's economy is in serious trouble, and the moral high ground of the international community's sanctions against Russia has also been shaken.
Can the three tricks help Russia counterattack?
Putin's three-pronged axe seems to be sharp, but in the field of global public opinion, Russia faces serious isolation and condemnation. Nevertheless, these measures have undoubtedly increased security risks in Europe, forced the West to be more cautious in its policy towards Russia, and dealt a substantial blow to Ukraine. However, in order to completely reverse the situation, Russia still needs to seek more breakthroughs in economic and diplomatic fields, ease the pressure of sanctions, and win the understanding and support of the international community. The ultimate outcome of this contest will still depend on the follow-up actions of the parties and changes in the global balance of power.