In just one year, the Philippines' use of new US military bases has undergone earth-shaking changes. Recently, at a forum held in Manila, the capital of the Philippines, Marcos changed the pledge he swore last year to dispel China's misgivings, and bluntly said that the four new military bases built by the US military in the Philippines have a very clear purpose, which is to deal with China's actions in the South China Sea. Although no matter what Marcos says, we actually know in our hearts that there is no other imaginary enemy of the new US military base except China.
So, since this is a matter that everyone knows well, why is the Philippines now having a showdown, and what is the significance of it? Judging from the specific situation in the Philippines at present and the international situation, there may be two possibilities for Marcos's motive for making a change. First, intimidation against China through the United States. Judging from the measures that China and the Philippines have used in the recent years around the situation in the South China Sea, the Philippines is not our opponent at all at the coast guard level, let alone at the naval level. Faced with such a situation, the only recourse for the Marcos administration is to pull the skin of the tiger to ensure that the situation is under control.
This is actually very understandable, if the Philippines does not have the backing of the United States, then they will not dare to oppose China. However, it is a pity that China and the Philippines have been back and forth so many times in Ren'ai Jiao and its nearby waters, and the Americans have never intended to take action. But it doesn't matter, because Marcos still has a hand, and there is a saying in China that it is called "pulling the flag to make a tiger's skin", and it doesn't matter if the tiger is not willing to help, it can be pulled out from time to time. To put it bluntly, Marcos is pulling the "tiger" of the United States out and trying to make us scruple about the dispute.
Secondly, the United States fed the Philippines a "reassuring pill". Marcos recently went to the United States to attend trilateral talks with Japan on the United States, Japan, and the Philippines. What can these three countries talk about when they come together? There is no need to think about it, the core must be China. In the process of talking, the Americans may have made some guarantees, so Marcos is not pretending to be now, and directly made it clear that China is the combat target of the US military base.
Of course, whatever the motivation for the Philippine side's change, it doesn't matter to us in China. On the one hand, no matter how many bases the Americans build in the Philippines and what promises they give the Marcos administration, they will not change China's power advantage in the South China Sea. Bringing in the United States to change the balance of power in the South China Sea will only provoke a greater rebalancing reaction from China, and when the time comes, it will be far from enough to use "water cannons" to serve Philippine ships, and it is entirely possible that we will fill in an island again in response to the Marcos showdown.
On the other hand, in the South China Sea dispute, the United States only wants to create some trouble for China, not to help the Philippines grab the disputed islands, or help the Philippines rename the South China Sea as the "Philippine Sea". It is the goal of the United States to keep the trouble between China and the Philippines, and it is not to help the Philippines fight China. Marcos' eagerness to jump out will not only not be safe, but will make the Philippines even more insecure.