After a long wait, lychees are finally on the market.
In mid-March, when the lychee blooms, due to climatic factors, the amount of lychee flowering in many producing areas has decreased significantly, and many orchards have a situation such as "a large number of lychee trees do not bloom". Many growers and experienced practitioners said that this year, due to the impact of abnormal weather and the "small year" of lychee, it is expected that the price of some varieties of lychee such as cinnamon flavor and glutinous rice cake will rise, and it may reach a high price of 100 yuan per catty.
This news immediately attracted the attention of the majority of netizens.
01
Lychee has been listed, how is the market?
Nowadays, early-maturing lychees such as Guixiang Li, Feizixiao, and March Red have been listed, and according to the data of the One Mu Field Platform, the lychees currently on the market are mainly from the southern early-maturing production areas such as Lingshui and Anding in Hainan. The producer charge d'affaires from Anding County, Hainan Province, a user of one acre of land, said that the local price of cinnamon fragrant li is about 17 yuan per catty, the price of concubine smile is between 26 and 28 yuan, and the price of fine products is a little more expensive. Boss Yang from Haikou, Hainan Province, said that the shipping price of the local concubine laughing lychee is 20-30 yuan a catty, mainly because the first stubble fruit has just been listed, so the price is more expensive.
So on the market side, how is the lychee market?
At the end of the wholesale market, Li Binshi, a salesman in the western suburbs of Shanghai, said that the wholesale price of lychees in the Shanghai market is between 30 and 40 yuan, taking the Hainan "Guixiang Li" listed in mid-March as an example, the mining price was 50 yuan / catty, compared with the current price of 30 yuan / catty, down 20% - 40%. However, this price is more expensive than some retail channels, probably because of differences in variety, quality, etc. Overall, the price of lychee has decreased more than in early April.
02
What's next for lychees?
Nowadays, it is only the early stage of lychee listing, and from mid-April to August, lychees will continue to be on the market. Some time ago, the news of lychee production reduction attracted widespread attention from the public, which shows that everyone is still very concerned about the fruit of lychee, especially the consumption boom that is about to usher in the May Day holiday, what kind of changes will the lychee market have?
The lychees that are marketed from late April to mid-May are mainly from Hainan.
To this end, Liu Zhijia, the person in charge of the lychee production area of Xiaomaoming, one acre of Tianwolai, analyzed the next lychee market according to the lychee production area and market time. He said that around April 25, Hainan Lingshui Feizi Xiaotou batch of fruit was listed, according to the price forecast of previous years, the listing price was 25 yuan - 35 yuan;
According to the proportion of the production capacity of the northern and southern concubines of Hainan this year, it is speculated that the northern lychees will be listed when one-third of the goods are sold in the Lingshui production area, and the price of the northern lychees will gradually be reduced at a pace of about 1 to 2 yuan per day after the listing of the northern lychees, until the Hainan concubine laughs basically over. That is to say, after May 10, Hainan lychee will usher in the peak period of listing, and the competition in origin shipments and market procurement is fierce.
03
How is this lychee business going this year?
As a buyer, how to quickly lock in the supply and find the most cost-effective products as soon as possible to do a good job in the 2024 lychee season?
Liu Zhijia continued to investigate the production area of lychee in Hainan and gave some pertinent suggestions:
First, if you do the first stubble, be fast. Hainan production area of the first stubble fruit listed around April 25, at this time, on the whole, the market supply, it is recommended that buyers can use air freight, saving time and improving efficiency, the goods arrive one point early, the market price is one point higher. Taking Hangzhou, where e-commerce is concentrated, as an example, the air freight cost is 4 yuan per catty, and the air freight cost in Beijing is 3.5 yuan per catty, which is suitable for platforms and high-end community group buying channels (mainly e-commerce goods).
Second, the initial listing price is inflated, and we must do what we can. Due to the fact that some varieties have less flowering this year, some Baohua merchants have a higher initial predetermined cost price, and the price of the first fruit may be increased in order to make a profit, and the risk of purchasing Baoyuan is higher. It is recommended that buyers can follow the market according to their own shipping channels to avoid high-priced orders but falling market conditions.
3. Consider the ability to make goods and regional weather factors. Lychees in Hainan need to be transported across the strait, so it is recommended that buyers who go to the wholesale market pay attention to the weather and navigation conditions of the strait at any time to avoid picking the goods and not being able to send them. In case of any situation that affects the quality, it is better to suspend than force the shipment.
Fourth, pay attention to the time of listing in the production area, and purchase from south to north in order to reduce costs. The southern production area of Hainan is a small batch of goods, the market competition is small, the price is relatively stable, it is recommended to go with the market to get the goods. Pay attention to the changes in the listing cycle of the production area through one acre of field in a timely manner, and select the most cost-effective goods from each origin from south to north.
Will there really be a high price of 100 yuan/kg of lychees this year?
In this regard, Liu Zhijia said that taking Feizixiao in Maoming as an example, although the yield per mu has declined this year, due to the high replacement of fruit trees in Maoming in the previous two years has entered the bumper yield period, the total area of Feizixiao has increased this year, and the total output is predicted to be the same as last year, and it is expected to increase slightly. This year's flowering decline is mainly due to late-maturing lychees such as cinnamon and glutinous rice balls, and the specific market needs to be observed according to the later planting management.