Xinhua Finance Shanghai, April 22 (Reporter Wang He) The Robotaxi field has recently made frequent moves, and self-driving taxis, which have been in the doldrums for a long time, seem to have ushered in a "turning point" to the upward trend. A few days ago, Baidu Apollo announced that after completing 100 million kilometers of testing and operating mileage, Baidu Robotaxi's new goal is 100 million yuan in revenue and 100 million yuan in profit.
Just in early April, Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed on the social media platform X that he would launch Robotaxi on August 8 this year. Musk also said that Tesla's cumulative investment in training computing, data pipelines and video storage will exceed $10 billion this year.
On April 22, foreign media further reported that Tesla's strategic direction has changed, and the Robotaxi project has now become the highest priority project, surpassing the previously high-profile $25,000 entry-level electric vehicle development plan. Musk has paid great attention to this project, closely monitoring everything from the development progress of the prototype to the planning of production capacity.
In China, GAC Aion and Didi Autonomous Driving announced in early April that their joint venture, Guangzhou Andi Technology Co., Ltd., was approved for industrial and commercial licenses, and Andi Technology is 50% owned by GAC Aion and Didi Autonomous Driving. This is the first joint venture between a L4 autonomous driving company and an automotive company in China to build Robotaxi production vehicles. The first model of Andi Technology has completed the product definition, and is undergoing a joint review of the design and styling, and plans to launch the first mass-produced L4 model in 2025.
"The approval of the joint venture and the positive progress of the first production vehicle mark a new stage in the commercialization of the autonomous driving industry. Didi autonomous driving COO Meng Xing said.
Wang Yunpeng, vice president of Baidu Group and president of the intelligent driving business group, said in an internal letter that "intelligence" has just begun, from the rapid expansion of Waymo to the recent high-profile official announcement of Tesla's entry into Robotaxi.
"It is expected that 2024 will be the outbreak year of L3 autonomous driving, due to national regulations and enterprise hardware and software preparation, which has reached a relatively mature stage. 2026 will be the year of the explosion of L4 autonomous driving. Gu Huinan, general manager of GAC Aion, said in an interview with Xinhua Financial Reporter a few days ago that the best application scenario for full autonomous driving in the future is to share cars, because it saves the cost of drivers, and it is very cost-effective to "smash" this part of the money to do automatic driving. GAC Aion and Didi are the mobility companies that aim to launch a large number of L4 autonomous driving products on the market by 2026, which is based on GAC Aion's own development stage. "It remains to be seen whether Level 4 autonomous driving is in line with the market and whether it can become a mainstream development trend. ”
It should be pointed out that the autonomous driving industry has not been smooth in the past few years. Robotaxi has started the first round of rapid development since 2020, and investment and financing are in full swing, with autonomous driving technology companies such as Pony.ai, WeRide, and AUTO X vying to "circle the city" to land, start road tests and even charge operations.
However, at the beginning of 2022, due to the fact that the progress of technology implementation is less than expected, it is difficult to achieve large-scale expected benefits in the short term, the first round of rapid development bubbles have burst one after another, and the global capital market is bearish on the short-term development speed of Robotaxi, and the investment in enterprises has been tightened, and the industry has entered a painful period - unable to make money, unable to raise funds, and unable to go on the market. Argo AI, an autonomous driving company backed by Ford Motor and Volkswagen Group, was dissolved in 2022, Uber sold its autonomous driving division ATG, and General Motors' Cruise suspended its Robotaxi business across the United States due to a series of safety accidents.
Industry insiders said that in the second half of 2023, after the "reshuffle" of the industry, the Robotaxi industry has returned to rationality, and with the rise of artificial intelligence technology, the training of autonomous driving systems and the iteration of technology have been supported by rapid development. Autonomous driving technology companies continue to improve their own solution development, and strive to improve technical economy, deeply bind OEMs, and jointly promote landing applications.
On the other hand, Continental has quickly built a policy mix to promote autonomous driving. From the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2024, the "Notice on Carrying out the Pilot Work of Intelligent Connected Vehicle Access and Road Access", "Guidelines for Transportation Safety Services for Autonomous Vehicles (Trial)", and "Notice on Carrying out the Pilot Work of "Vehicle-Road-Cloud Integration" Application of Intelligent Networked Vehicles" have been intensively promulgated, providing strong support for the large-scale and commercial application of high-level autonomous driving.
"As a new technology, autonomous driving is in line with the Gartner technology curve, and has gone through the downward period of bubble bursting, the survival of the fittest period, and entered a period of stable development and recovery, and autonomous driving will enter a state of upward rebound. Peng Jun, co-founder and CEO of Pony.ai, said at the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum (2024) recently.
Peng Jun believes that the industry has bottomed out and rebounded in the following ways: first, the technology has gradually matured, and the accident rate of autonomous driving has been reduced to 1/10 of the current driver accident rate; second, the rapid accumulation of industrial practice, Beijing, Wuhan, Chongqing and other places have carried out Robotaxi commercial charging pilots; third, the gradual liberalization of laws and policies, laying the foundation for the commercialization and large-scale application of autonomous vehicles in the next step.
Ark Fund (ARK), a well-known U.S. investment company, remains firmly bullish on Robotaxi, and its 2024 industry outlook shows that Robotaxi currently operates in about 20 cities around the world, with fully driverless commercial options in at least 7 cities. Big models and generative AI will accelerate Robotaxi progress, which generates $28 trillion in enterprise value over the next five to 10 years at 15x EBIT, equivalent to nine times that of all automakers in 2023.
According to the report jointly released by Ruqi Travel and Roland Berger, at present, as the "leader" of commercialization progress, China and the United States have opened Robotaxi charging services to the public in designated cities in their respective territories to achieve full commercial operation without a driver's safety officer. 2024 will be a year for Robotaxi to clarify its direction, accumulate development, and is expected to create a new situation, and industry players will also rebuild their confidence under the background of policy support and industry recovery, and help Robotaxi commercialization go further.
Editor: Luo Hao
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