Hong Kong stocks rose sharply today, but A-shares failed to strengthen with it, but performed weakly after opening slightly lower, and the upward momentum was obviously insufficient. The intraday trading volume has shrunk significantly, and the end of the market has also fallen, and the strong stock game atmosphere in the market is clearly revealed, and a large number of funds have a wait-and-see attitude. So, why did A-shares fail to follow the rise of Hong Kong stocks? I think there are three main reasons behind it, and you can compare and analyze whether there is a consensus:
1. Today's market hotspots are relatively scarce, and the sustainability of various sectors is weak.
Today's high-profile sector is undoubtedly the military sector, the rise of this sector is mainly driven by the news, but it is worth noting that, similar to the previous situation of the concept of low-altitude economy, once a sector performs well on a certain day, it is often difficult to maintain the upward momentum the next day. As seen today, the low-altitude economic concept sector, which performed strongly on Friday, has become the hardest hit area of the decline today. For the military sector, tomorrow's trend is expected to follow a familiar playbook: the leading stocks are expected to continue to rise after the divergence, while the younger brothers may gradually fall behind. Logically, the current trend of the military sector is quite similar to the previous concept of low-altitude economy, and its possible eventual evolution has long been foreseen by the market. In view of this, those short-term funds that missed the opportunity to start the hot sector are likely to no longer be in a hurry to chase the rally and enter, and a wait-and-see mood appears.
2. The weighted sectors are also differentiated, with high dividends weakening and large consumption strengthening.
Recently, an implicit main line of the market has focused on high-dividend sectors, thanks to the release of the new "National Nine Articles", the market's attention to high-dividend companies has increased significantly, and these sectors have also started a trend upward trend. However, today, the high-dividend sector has suffered a significant pullback, taking the coal sector as an example, erasing all the gains in the past two weeks in just one trading day due to the good news of the new country, which shows that although the new country nine is good for high-dividend companies, in the A-share market, this is not an absolute upward driver, at least for now, the relevant sectors have returned to the starting point before the policy release.
As for the strength of today's large consumption sector, it is not a sign of a fundamental switch in market style. Looking back on the beginning of this year, whether it is the changes in the liquor or pharmaceutical sectors, their sustainability is not strong, and they often end in a day or two, or even a day. Today, the two major sectors have joined forces to strengthen, and it is more likely that after the weakening of the high-dividend sector, market funds are trying to switch between high and low. However, judging from the historical performance, the long market of the large consumer sector is short-lived, and it is likely that the rebound will end the day after tomorrow at the latest, and the market may turn to the strength of other weighted sectors. For the investment of the weighted sector, it usually focuses on the medium- and long-term layout, and the short-term rotation value is relatively limited, so some medium-term funds focusing on the weighted sector may also be taking a wait-and-see attitude at the moment.
3. The current market sentiment is still sluggish, and the psychological shadow is large.
Looking back at this year, in addition to the 1,000-share limit that occurred last week, there was a similar scenario on February 28, when the market generally attributed this to the impact of options delivery. The options delivery date for this month will be April 24, which is Wednesday. In the current annual report disclosure has not yet ended, the market uncertainty still exists, and facing the period of tight funds at the end of the month, the short-term and even long-term funds that have experienced the early adjustment show a more cautious attitude, which is quite reasonable in the current market lack of money-making effect and lack of hot spots. Sentiment is sluggish, confidence is lacking, and trading volume is also shrinking, which all reflect the low activity of funds in the current market, the insufficient supply of incremental funds, and the difficulty of effectively promoting the index to achieve a substantial rise.
In general, the current market can and cannot be done, the reason for this is that there is no hot topic in the market that can lead the overall situation, which provides space for the rise of other potential themes, and retail investors still have the opportunity to grasp the initiative of new themes. What cannot be done is that there is no volume, the current market volume has not been effectively amplified, and the sustainability of those slightly larger themes is still in doubt. Therefore, adjust your strategy according to the changes in the market situation, shoot the jungler when you have the opportunity, continue to watch the show if you don't have the opportunity, and always be prepared to be patient at the same time.
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