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Recently, according to Reuters, Tesla wants to cancel the production of low-cost electric vehicles (Wall Street calls it Model 2) and instead focus on the development of robotaxi, a self-driving taxi. Subsequently, electric vehicle media Electrek confirmed that although Musk had previously debunked rumors that Tesla had abandoned its low-cost electric car plan, Tesla did put aside its upcoming $25,000 electric car, which is codenamed NV9. According to people familiar with the matter, Tesla has put all of its resources into self-driving work, and the project has effectively been shelved for now.
In response to the news, Tesla's founder and first CEO Martin Eberhard said that Tesla's abandonment of low-cost car plans is a "shame". But it is also a sign that China will have the opportunity to expand in this area.
David Baron, a prominent Tesla investor from Wall Street, warned that if Tesla CEO Elon Musk abandons his long-standing efforts to develop low-cost electric vehicles, then the agency's bullish case for Tesla will be in jeopardy.
Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, warned that it would be an "epic" disaster if the company made robotaxis a priority and abandoned the affordable electric car program. The long-time Tesla bull said in an interview that the move would be a gamble that could decide the fate of the EV maker for years to come.
Ives said that in the next two to three years, a mass-market electric vehicle priced at less than $30,000 could account for 50%-60% of Tesla's incremental growth, while a fully autonomous robotaxi could be ready for another five to six years.
Looking back at the development of the electric vehicle industry in the United States from the "Tesla abandonment of low-cost electric vehicles":
-- U.S. policies related to electric vehicles
Since 2021, the strong growth of electric vehicle sales in the United States has been due to the recent introduction of electric vehicle support policies in the United States. For example, on March 31, the U.S. "Infrastructure Plan" was released, proposing to invest $174 billion to support the development of the U.S. electric vehicle market, including improving the domestic industrial chain, sales discounts and tax incentives, building 500,000 charging piles by 2030, school buses and electrifying the federal fleet.
-- The development status of electric vehicles in the United States
Entering 2021, electric vehicle sales in the United States have grown strongly, and the penetration rate of electric vehicles has also reached a record high. From January to May 2021, electric vehicle sales in the United States reached 224,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 107%. In May 2021, the U.S. electric vehicle penetration rate hit an all-time high of 3.6%.
Anthony Sassine, senior investment strategist at Jinrui Fund Advisors, believes that the global electric vehicle industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, and the industry as a whole is adjusting to consumer demand, and consumers need cheaper electric vehicles. After the launch of new and cheaper EV models in 2025 and 2026, there will be a new wave of rapid growth in EVs worldwide.
According to the International Energy Agency's forecast, the global EV sales share outlook for 2030 has increased to 35% based on existing policies and automotive industry targets. In China, the European Union and the United States, the average share of electric vehicles in total vehicle sales is expected to rise to around 60% by 2030.
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