【Daily Rating】Short-term sentiment ebbed!6 even boards staged a "sky floor" in the afternoon, and the military industry, consumption and other low-level directions were active against the trend
On April 22, the Associated Press of Finance reported that the market fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day, and the Shanghai Composite Index led the decline. On the disk, military stocks rose sharply at the open, and more than 10 stocks such as Guanxiang Technology, China Shipbuilding Emergency, 712, and Sichuang Electronics rose to the limit. Pork stocks rebounded, Lihua shares rose more than 10%, and Xiangjia shares rose by the limit. Tourism stocks rose in the afternoon, and Zhangjiajie and Dalian Shengya rose to the limit. Liquor stocks were active intraday, and Jinhui liquor rose to the limit. The semiconductor sector bottomed out and rebounded, and Nanxin Technology rose by more than 10%. In terms of decline, cyclical stocks such as oil and gas collectively adjusted, and Renzhi shares and Laishen Tongling fell to the limit. Low-altitude economic concept stocks fluctuated lower, and many stocks such as Shuangyi Technology and Jianxin fell by more than 10%. Overall, stocks fell more and rose less, and more than 3,300 stocks in the whole market fell. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was 822.1 billion, a decrease of 38.2 billion from the previous trading day
Sector
Military stocks collectively strengthened, Guanxiang Technology, China Shipbuilding Emergency, Gaoling Information, Dawn Aviation rose 20%, Covestro Technology, Tianhe Defense, Quanxin Shares, etc. rose more than 10%, Sichuan Electronics, 712, Torch Electronics, Galaxy Electronics and other stocks rose by the limit. Among them, the trend of military electronics and informatization is stronger, on the one hand, it has been catalyzed by the news, on the other hand, this direction has experienced a long period of consolidation, and the advantages of rank and valuation are highlighted. However, this direction has accumulated a lot of hedging in the process of previous consolidation, and if you want to start a swing market, you may still need more positive catalysts to continuously attract incremental funds into the market.
Looking at the military industry from a fundamental point of view, since 2022, the military sector has successively experienced negative disturbances such as "industry price control and profit concessions", "delay in central orders", and "value-added tax reform". However, the pessimistic expectations of the sector have been largely fully priced. On the one hand, from 2023Q3, the gross profit margin of some subdivisions such as aviation and aerospace has stabilized and improved, and on the other hand, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has paid more and more attention to the assessment of the market value management of listed companies of central state-owned enterprises, and the intrinsic value of the company can be improved through various market value management methods.
The direction of consumption ushered in a rebound today, pork and other aquaculture industries were active against the trend, Xiangjia shares rose by the limit, Lihua shares rose by more than 10%, and stocks such as Shennong Group, Tiankang Biology, and New Wufeng also rose to the top. On the news side, since March, pork prices have risen more than expected in the off-season. As of early April, the price of live pigs (three yuan) was 15.2 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.5 yuan, or 10.95%, from late February (13.7 yuan/kg).
Dongguan Securities pointed out that in March 2023, the number of fertile sows in the mainland will continue to be reduced. Since the beginning of 2023, the number of fertile sows in mainland China has declined for five consecutive quarters. With the de-production of fertile sow production capacity transmitted to pigs, the supply of live pigs is expected to shrink in 2024, and it is expected that the pressure on breeding costs is expected to decline, and the profitability of breeding is expected to recover. At present, the valuation of the pig breeding sector is still at a historically low level.
Tourism stocks also rose in the afternoon, including Zhangjiajie, Dalian Shengya, Golden Horse Amusement, Xi'an Tourism, Guilin Tourism, etc. On the news side, at present, the tourism market ushered in the "May Day" booking peak. According to the data of the tourism platform, the domestic long-distance travel orders during the May Day holiday accounted for more than half of the orders this year, and the sinking tourism market performed outstandingly. From a market point of view, tourism stocks since last week volatility has significantly intensified, related stocks often appear a trend of sharp rises and falls, it can be seen that short-term active funds around the May Day travel speculation to stimulate the game, as for whether it can get out of the second wave of the rally remains to be further observed, so the response is still based on low-suction arbitrage.
Overall, with the collective pullback of the hot spots in the early stage of the short term, the risk appetite of funds may gradually decrease, and the low-level defensive sectors represented by consumption are still expected to be repeatedly active in the market outlook.
In terms of individual stocks
At the individual stock level, several hot directions from last week pulled back across the board today. First of all, pay attention to the direction of the low-altitude economy, due to the popularity of the core Wanfeng Aowei received a warning letter and fell early, the overall speculation of the plate was suppressed, and some high-level stocks ushered in a catch-up decline, of which CITIC Hai direct volume fell by more than 7%, and Jianxin shares and Shuangyi Technology fell by more than 15%. However, it is better that there is still a short-term activity such as Zongshen power in the low altitude, and there is a lot of overlap between the strong military informatization concept and the low-altitude economy today.
In addition, resource cyclical stocks are also out of fire, oil and gas stocks in the potential Hengxin, Renzhi shares, Zhongman Petroleum fell more than 9%, and Mancaron, Xiaocheng Technology, Zhongrun Resources, Laishen Tongling and other gold stocks also fell to the front, and Zijin Mining, China Molybdenum and other large-capitalization targets are also in the high volume of the negative close, but the better thing is that the medium-term trend has not been destroyed, and it is expected that the short-term cyclical stocks will enter a period of time after the consolidation, there are still opportunities for repeated activity.
From the point of view of the board relay, the loss effect is more obvious, before the two 6 boards are both shares and Chunguang Technology both fell to the limit, of which Chunguang Technology was diving in the afternoon to stage the "sky floor". As of today's closing, the number of even board stocks has dropped to 5, and the stocks above the 3 boards are only the two military + low-altitude economic concept stocks left in the balance design and Victall shares, obviously in the short-term speculation into the ebb stage, the winning rate of the high-level relay model is relatively low, and you can still pay attention to some low-level defensive sector opportunities to make up for the rise, or patiently wait for the previous hot sector stocks to stop falling after the low-suction arbitrage.
Market outlook analysis
At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.67%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.43%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.32%. Northbound funds bought a net of 1.389 billion yuan throughout the day, including a net purchase of 908 million yuan in Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and a net purchase of 481 million yuan in Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.
Today, the market as a whole continued to weaken the consolidation trend, and while the three major indexes fell across the board, the volume and energy also shrank further. On the disk, there is a more obvious high-low cut trend, several hot spots in the early stage, low-altitude economy, cycle (non-ferrous metals, oil and gas, etc.), construction machinery, Chinese prefixes, etc., all fell into the consolidation, military electronics, low consumption direction is active against the trend. On the other hand, the two major 6-board high standards in the market have all been nuclearized, and the short-term speculation has ebbed significantly. In this context, funds may pay more attention to the low-level defensive direction in the near future. Of course, for the above-mentioned old hot spots, due to the deep involvement of active funds before, there is a high probability that they will still be repeatedly active in the follow-up disk, but before the emergence of incremental funds to enter the market, the probability of wanting to get out of the plate market again is relatively low.
As the direction of the high-level hot spots has fallen into consolidation, the short-term sentiment indicators have fluctuated lower and fallen below the freezing point again
Market news focus
1. Ministry of Finance: According to the project allocation, the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be launched in a timely manner
On April 22, Wang Jianfan, director of the Budget Department of the Ministry of Finance, said at the press conference of the State Council Information Office on the 22nd that the Ministry of Finance has included the 2024 ultra-long-term special treasury bond expenditure into the 2024 budget, and at the same time solidly promoted the preliminary preparations. In the next step, the Ministry of Finance will start the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in a timely manner according to the project allocation of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds. We will scientifically design the maturity of the issuance varieties based on the market demand of the bond market and the implementation cycle of the construction project corresponding to the ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, so as to achieve a reasonable match with the project term. At the same time, we will coordinate the issuance of general treasury bonds and special treasury bonds, rationally arrange the pace of issuance, and effectively ensure the capital needs of special treasury bond projects.
2. Ministry of Finance: Support some large and medium-sized cities to implement urban renewal actions to carry out the renewal and transformation of underground pipe networks
Finance Associated Press reported on April 22 that Wang Dongwei, vice minister of finance, said at the press conference of the State Council Information Office on April 22 that the Ministry of Finance will make overall plans to make good use of policy tools such as additional issuance of treasury bonds, local government special bonds, and investment in the central budget to promote the construction of key areas and major projects. The next step will be to work with relevant departments to support some large and medium-sized cities to implement urban renewal actions and carry out the renewal and transformation of underground pipe networks.
(Finance Associated Press, Fenglin)