The RAND think tank's exercise on the conflict in the Taiwan Strait has become an established project for military pressure on China, and as a political game of the US military and government, whether the results of the exercise are objective or not remains to be discussed.
【U.S. Military High-Level Meeting】
However, from another angle, the content of the deduction can indeed reflect the current Sino-US confrontation situation to a certain extent, and it can also see some changes in US military thinking.
A new round of deduction
With a new round of turmoil in the Taiwan Strait issue, Senior Colonel Wu Qian, spokesman for the Ministry of National Defense, once again clarified our military's stance on the Taiwan issue on behalf of the PLA: Taiwan is an unquestionable internal affair of China, and foreign forces will never be allowed to get involved.
【Senior Colonel Wu Qian】
It is undesirable for the United States and the Taiwan authorities to seek independence by relying on the United States, and it is also a serious provocation and aggression against China.
The People's Liberation Army (PLA) seldom directly puts "military reunification" on the surface, so the outside world also interprets Senior Colonel Wu Qian's speech as China's serious warning to the United States and Taiwan, and if the situation continues to escalate, military conflicts between the two sides of the strait and between China and the United States are very likely.
Against this backdrop, China's long-time acquaintance RAND think tank once again appeared to assess the existing military strength of China and the United States in the Asia-Pacific region, but the results of this exercise surprised the think tank researchers.
【RAND Think Tank Deduction】
The RAND think tank's exercise revealed a serious problem: the US military's existing ammunition stockpiles simply cannot meet wartime needs, and according to the results of the exercise, the United States will be completely depleted within a week of the outbreak of conflict in China's Taiwan Strait.
In particular, long-range missiles, the only weapons that can pose a threat to the PLA's amphibious island-seizing forces, are seriously underwhelming.
The RAND think tank believes that the current shortage of missiles in the Asia-Pacific region is as high as 5,000, and only by making up for this gap within three weeks after the outbreak of the conflict can the US military have a chance of winning.
【U.S. Missiles】
At present, none of the cutting-edge missile models of the US military can reach this output, such as the LRASM missile, which has a high hope, which has an effective range of 1,000 kilometers and ultra-high strike accuracy, and has stealth capabilities, which is the main reliance of the US Navy's anti-ship capability.
But according to the current production schedule of the Loma plant, the number of LRASMs delivered by 2025 will not exceed more than 500, which is a single-digit difference from the estimated ammunition consumption of the US military in the Taiwan Strait conflict.
And considering that the launch platform of LRASM is limited, as the PLA launches missile raids on US military bases and ports around China, the US military's strike capability will also be greatly reduced.
【U.S. Ports】
Even if the supply of missiles comes up later, there is no way to intervene in the war.
Compared with the previous deduction results of slapping a swollen face and filling a fat man, this RAND think tank is obviously much more restrained, and it is also a bit of an exclamation that the PLA is invincible.
In fact, this is because the results of the exercise must serve military politics, and the purpose of this exercise is to exaggerate the theory of the China threat, so as to get Congress to apply for more budget to strengthen military forces in the Asia-Pacific region.
Decaying empires
It stands to reason that the US military budget occupies the first place in the world year after year and has repeatedly reached new highs; it stands to reason that the US military should enter a stage of rapid development in recent years, but it is the PLA that has the incremental advantage, and even the speed of military construction of the Russian army in the midst of war is more obvious than that of the US military.
【Chinese Navy】
This cannot but make people wonder where the United States spends so much on military spending instead of on the training of weapons and personnel? The answer lies in the pockets of the beneficiaries of the military-industrial complex.
The problem of corruption in the US military is extremely serious, and this kind of corruption is not a matter of how much money is privately embezzled by senior generals or officials, but is an act of fairness.
For example, for a ceramic cup distributed by the U.S. military, the supplier may ask for hundreds of dollars, but the military will still gladly accept it, and the reason is not difficult to understand.
Another example is that the MRE military rations of the US military are considered to be the worst in taste and the most inferior materials in the military powers, and even the US soldiers do not want to eat this thing on the battlefield, but the purchase price of the MRE is quite expensive, almost blatantly greasy.
[U.S. Army MRE]
As for the development of military equipment, there are even more fancy intestines taken from the Americans.
The reason why US weapons have almost come to a standstill in the past 30 years is not that these arms giants in the United States have not been able to develop new weapons, but that people are simply unwilling to do so.
The reason is very simple: the military industrial giants pursue profits, and the development of new weapons is a completely thankless task, not only to meet the requirements of the military, but also to keep the price as low as possible.
【Loma Factory】
Therefore, the major military industries are more willing to focus their business on the international arms trade market rather than national orders, which is why Loma's F-16V sells very well internationally, but the US military itself has not completed the upgrade of the F-16 fleet.
On the other hand, on the Chinese side, the development and production of weapons and equipment are all national tasks, and there is no need for profit, so it is natural to reduce production costs and facilitate large-scale equipment.
After the technical level is improved, new technologies are delegated to foreign trade equipment to enter the international arms trade market competition, and orders are generated by foreign exchange, which forms a virtuous circle to help China's military equipment level continue to improve, and China may have an incremental advantage that is difficult to surpass.
【China's Foreign Trade Military Aircraft】
In fact, no matter from the perspective of national strength or military strength, the United States does not have the capital to break out a full-scale military conflict with China in the Asia-Pacific region, and the result of the RAND think tank's deduction is a false proposition.
Compared with the hegemons in the world in the past, the peak period of the United States was extremely short, and it was extremely difficult to control the whole world by military hegemony alone.
[U.S. military hegemony]
Forcibly holding on to a hegemony that has fallen apart will do more harm than good to the United States, and conforming to the trend of multipolarization is the way out for the United States.
Sources:
[1] The U.S. military company simulated a war in the Taiwan Strait, and the result: the U.S. military collapsed.National Defense Times vanguard.2022-11-07 [Cited 2022-11-08]
[2] RAND Corporation in China.RAND Corporation China Official Website.2015-9-25 [Cited 2015-09-25]