Towards the end of the season, Manchester United are once again at a crossroads. Erik ten Hag's trophy and Champions League ticket last season gave hope to the fans, and after spending a lot of money this season, the team has once again returned to its original form, with no hope of winning the Premier League title and even breaking into the top four, which makes it difficult to even break into the top four, which makes one wonder if Erik ten Hag really has what it takes to lead Manchester United's revival.
Any great manager has had tough times, and Alex Ferguson led United to three and a half years and won the FA Cup on the verge of being sacked to create a legend of trophies that followed. As it just so happens that Erik ten Hag has led Manchester United to the last four of the FA Cup this season, whether he is the Red Devils' "chosen one" cannot be determined by a trophy.
Manchester United managers in the post-Ferguson era:
David Moyes / July 2013 - April 2014 / Win rate: 52.94%
Ryan Giggs (interim manager) / April-May 2014 / Win rate: 50%
Louis van Gaal / July 2014 - May 2016 / Win rate: 52.43%
Jose Mourinho / May 2016 - December 2018 / Win: 58.33%
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer/December 2018 to November 2021/Win: 54.17%
Michael Carrick (Interim Manager) / November-December 2021 / Win rate: 66.67%
Rangnick (Interim Manager) / December 2021 - May 2022 / Winning Rate: 37.93%
Erik ten Hag/May 2022-Present/Winning Rate: 59.05%
Manchester United's post-Ferguson era is infinitely reincarnated
Manchester United manager is probably the second most difficult job in English football, behind only the England national team manager. The Red Devils have built a glorious dynasty under legendary manager Alex Ferguson, and since his retirement in 2013, every new manager has been compared to him. Compatriot David Moyes, who took over the baton, lost Old Trafford under heavy pressure and the team turned to the big coach, with Louis van Gaal and Jose Mourinho both defeating. Later, he tried "his own man", Ferguson's former subordinate Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, and there was hope, but in the end he was disappointed.
Failing again and again, the world has come to realize that the problem is not only who is in charge, but also the job of Manchester United manager itself is really difficult to bite - the American owner Glazer family and his cronies Ed Woodward do not know football, the team did not initially have the position of director of football, and the purchase and sale of players was decided by the CEO, and of course the result was something wrong. Complex personnel issues, power struggles and office politics have been held back by the team's management, making the manager's job difficult.
As a result, > bad results fired the manager> the new coach took over the honeymoon period> he returned to his original shape> poor results > the manager, Manchester United has experienced the same cycle many times, and Erik ten Hag, who took office last season, is no exception. British billionaire Ratcliffe's stake in the football department is an opportunity for Manchester United to change its mind, and there is a chance to break out of this vicious circle, with the Red Devils management in the midst of a purge since he took over, and the question is, should Erik ten Hag also be replaced?
The trajectory of a great manager
Ferguson, Arsene Wenger, Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola were all unable to win the trophy in their first season in England, but after they took the lead, the team was able to improve significantly in different aspects, and through a clear development policy and tactical system, they improved season after season until they became champions.
Erik ten Hag's first season under Erik ten Hag started the season well, with United winning 41 of their 62 games, finishing third in the Premier League, winning the League Cup, losing the FA Cup final to Manchester City, scoring 108 goals in all competitions, 28 of which were clean sheets, and goalkeeper David De Gea winning the Premier League Golden Glove Award with 17 clean sheets.
Erik ten Hag rebuilt Manchester United's tactical system, advocating pressing in front, turning defense into attack quickly, attacking while the opponent's defensive formation was not completed, and organizing the attack as soon as possible. Cristiano Ronaldo's lack of running at the beginning of last season and Manchester United's failure to press up front were followed by a full implementation of the system after Ronaldo's departure, even after losing 6-3 to Manchester City and a seven-goal win by Liverpool.
The second season saw the real chapter fall quickly
Coaching in the Premier League often doesn't get real until the second season. In the first season, the opponent did not fully understand the tactics and fell into disadvantage, and in the second season, when the opponent is familiar with the style of play and finds a way to dismantle, the coach who can still stand is the real king. It was in his second season that Erik ten Hag was put to the test in his second season, with the transfer window buying attacking midfielder Mason Mount, striker Rasmus Hojlen and goalkeeper Andre Onana.
What is the reason for the big regression in results? Erik ten Hag has repeatedly stressed that United's problems this season are due to too many injuries in the squad. The long season, the inevitable injuries of players, the rush of injuries to a strong squad such as Manchester City, and the fact that Liverpool have been able to win the Carabao Cup from time to time in late February and early March, is not enough to explain United's slippery results.
The most goals scored in the Premier League
Manchester United ranked third in the Premier League last season with 23 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses, 75 points, scoring 58 goals and conceding 43 goals, and this season has 15 wins, 5 draws and 12 losses in 32 rounds, ranking seventh with 50 points, scoring 47 goals and conceding 48 goals, compared to the same stage last season, Manchester United scored 63 points with 19 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses, scored 49 goals and conceded 39 goals. In terms of numbers alone, there were 4 fewer wins and 5 more defeats, with a 13-point gap in points, a slight decrease of 2 goals and an increase of 9 goals conceded.
On March 31, Manchester United was away to Brentford, and was attacked by the opponent as many as 31 times, not counting Brentford's four hits, Manchester United 1-1 to retain one point, which is already lucky. Chelsea were then attacked 28 times in the 4-3 defeat, Liverpool were attacked 28 times in the 2-2 draw, and Bournemouth were attacked 20 times in the 2-2 draw, for a total of 107 shots on goal in four games, while United had only 47 shots, less than half the number of shots on goal.
The Red Devils' disastrous defeat against Brentford has led many to discover that they are actually at the top of the Premier League in terms of the number of goals they have been conceded this season. Football data website WhoScore has tally tally tally scored 17.2 times per game in 2023/24, the third-highest in the Premier League, behind Sheffield United and Luton Town. With Chelsea, Liverpool and Bournemouth, United moved up to the top spot with 17.9 attempts, a rare feat among the leading teams.
Compared to the same statistic last season, Manchester United averaged just 12.7 attacks per game, ranking 12th, and only eight teams were less on goal than Manchester United, if not ideal. Manchester United have seen a surge in the number of attacks on goal this season, which is a direct reflection of problems at the back.
成也子弟兵,败也子弟兵
Erik ten Hag's success in his first season at Manchester United is a credit for the solidity of the defence. Lisandro Martinez, the "pro-soldier" he brought in from Ajax, has performed well, and even if his other favorite player, "Mr. 100 million" Antony, is mediocre, everyone still has patience to give him time to adapt to the Premier League.
However, Lisandro Martinez has been recovering from injury for part of this season, goalkeeper David De Gea was let go of Eric Ten Hag's tactical style, and was replaced by the new signing Andre Onana, left-back Luke Shaw has also been injured for a long time, and the defensive lineup has changed greatly, plus Christian Eriksen and Casemiro's two major midfielders have both regressed greatly this season, and Manchester United's midfield and backfield have lost their stability last season. As the season progressed, the defensive line had injuries that could not be stopped, the defensive combination kept changing, and the number of attacks on goal increased year by game.
Erik ten Hag has repeatedly stressed that "the defensive four are the basis for results", complaining on many occasions that injuries at the back affect the results. However, many teams have experienced injuries of varying degrees this season, but Manchester United's "disaster" continues to dissipate, which is really a bit unreasonable. Antony broke out in a domestic violence scandal before the start of the season, and his performance this season is worse than last season, with only one assist in 25 Premier League appearances, no goals, and another striker Rashford is also in a slump, with a big regression in attack, weak defensiveness, and problems in attack and defense, which is of course reflected in the results.
Acquisition during Erik ten Hag's tenure:
1. Antony/winger/transfer fee: £85 million
2. Rasmus Hojlen/Striker/Transfer fee: £72 million
3. Casemiro/midfielder/transfer fee: £70 million
4. Mason Mount / forward midfielder / transfer fee: £60 million
5. Lisandro Martinez/centre-back/transfer fee: £57 million
6. Andre Onana/goalkeeper/transfer fee: £47.2 million
7. Tierrell Malacia/Defender/Transfer fee: £13 million
8. Altai Bayander/goalkeeper/transfer fee: £4.3 million
9. Evans/centre-back/transfer fee: free to join
10. Christian Eriksen/Midfielder/Transfer fee: Free to join
Manchester United have only one last hope for the FA Cup this season, and Champions League qualification is all but a foregone conclusion. Regrouping next season and another change is inevitable, but the question is, should Erik ten Hag remain at the helm and is he still worth United's time?
This Dutch coach, who had a good style and record when he was coaching at Ajax, came to Manchester United to be resolute, and once strongly quelled the "Ronaldo Rebellion", with a good first season. Over time, there have been repeated incidents of discord between the generals, and his ability to lead the dressing room has gradually been questioned - first Cristiano Ronaldo, then Jadon Sancho, Varane, and the departed goalkeeper Dean Henderson, to the recent Garnacho, who has been praised for his performance this season, has also liked and scolded Erik ten Hag's articles on social accounts, and British tabloids have begun to spread rumors from time to time that he has lost the support of the dressing room. He gives people the feeling that when the team is not doing well, he will take the players out in front of the media from time to time to "sacrifice the flag", which has always been a traditional taboo in the football circle.
In addition, United's defensive problems this season have not been overnight, with Erik ten Hag failing to adjust in time and the problem is getting worse. The fact that the average number of goals scored per game has risen to the top proves that Manchester United have lost control of the game, and as a manager, he should have already found out, why he has been ignoring it, or has he been unable to correct it?
Another suspicion is that in the two seasons of Erik ten Hag's tenure, Manchester United spent more than £400 million on new recruits, and the results and performances only improved last season, and this season has not improved. It is not the manager's responsibility to buy players, but many of the candidates who Manchester United have acquired in the past two seasons are obviously related to Erik ten Hag or recommended by him to buy them at a high price, and Antony is the best example of this, proving that his selection vision is very ordinary. Of course, with the departure of football director John Murtaugh and the appointment of a new director at Ratcliffe's INEOS to take charge of the transfer, Erik ten Hag's influence on Manchester United is expected to wane.
Arteta's example and real-world problem
After talking about the three doubts about Erik Ten Hag's ability, and at the same time, I have to mention that the manager's work effect in the team does not necessarily increase in a straight line. At this moment, Manchester United seems to be unsharp and unstable in attack, and there are many shortcomings, and it is difficult to see the results of Erik Ten Hag's work. Arteta first arrived at Arsenal and finished eighth in his first season in the first season in Unai Emery, but won the FA Cup, eighth in the following season, with the only trophy being the Community Shield in pre-season, and the 21/22 season seemed to be improving, and the race for Champions League qualification was defeated by north London rivals Tottenham Hotspur in a dominant position, only fifth, Arteta, who had been in charge for two and a half years at the time, could not give confidence to the outside world and could not see what the future holds for Arsenal.
In fact, Arteta is good at getting along with young players, he has gradually rejuvenated the team, and has also established a tactical style dominated by possession, and suddenly improved by leaps and bounds in the 2022/23 season, ranking first in the Premier League for more than 200 days, even if he was crowned king by Manchester City, the Premier League runners-up is also Arsenal's best ranking in the post-Wenger era. Much of this came to light after Arteta's success, and his example illustrates the importance of time and patience given to the manager.
Whether Erik ten Hag is just as worth his time is a tricky one. It must be considered that Manchester United in the post-Ferguson era, the famous coach has failed one after another, and the famous man has also tried to fail, looking for Erik ten Hag to come back, just hoping that this little-known coach will break the old and make a new start for Manchester United. With the current situation of Manchester United, basically no top coach is willing to coach, the rumors of Zidane, which Manchester United was interested in, have long been rejected, Guardiola is in Manchester City, Klopp will never leave Liverpool at the end of the season to the enemy camp, Ancelotti has renewed his contract with Real Madrid, and the only chance is probably only Nagelsmann, whose contract with the German national team ended in September this year, whether this young coach is suitable for Manchester United is another matter.
The reality is that with a hard time finding a better fit, United may have no choice but to give Erik ten Hag a little more time. There will be no excuses for poor performances when the injured squad is resolved this season, and it is expected that there will be a clearer and more objective judgment on how well Erik ten Hag will lead the way.