Entering the second half of April, a new round of oil price adjustment is imminent, on the eve of May Day, the 9th domestic oil price may be expected to be lowered, but the decline is expected to be realized, still facing multiple pressures!
Pig market: Recently, in terms of pigs, pig prices showed a trend of stopping the fall and picking up, today, in the north and south of the country, the pig price in the northern market took the lead in rising, and the market in many places has been "red", however, the upside is relatively limited, and the mainstream rise is only about 0.05 ~ 0.1 yuan / catty!
On the one hand, the average weight of pigs slaughtered continues to increase, the risk of selling pressure on medium and large pigs increases, and the consumption level of fat pigs is weakened by the rising temperature. However, due to the impact of the early pig farm disease and the reduction of production capacity, the risk of selling pressure of medium and low standard pigs is low, the supply of standard pigs in some areas is relatively small, the performance of standard pigs is still strong, and the sentiment of selling pigs at the breeding end is slightly differentiated;
At present, with the arrival of the end of the month, supported by the holiday factor, the enthusiasm of the market for bullish consumption has become stronger, and the breeding end of small and medium-sized pigs has the mentality of waiting for the price to be sold. However, at present, the consumption benefits have not yet been realized, the purchase and sales of downstream white strips are average, and the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has not yet been boosted!
Therefore, under the long and short game, pig prices have the opportunity to rise against the trend, however, the good has not yet been cashed out, it is expected that in the next 1~3 days, pig prices or will be weak and strong, and the upside is relatively limited!
Attached: April 22 pig prices in various provinces!
Gasoline and diesel market: domestic oil prices are "rocket rising", and the cost of residents' driving is "soaring" during the year! According to the analysis of institutional data, since 2024, according to the volume of private cars of 50 liters, filling up a tank of fuel, the cost of residents' travel has increased by 35 yuan!
According to the latest news, a few days ago, No. 92 gasoline at gas stations across the country generally rose by 0.16 yuan, the national average price rose to about 8.3 yuan / liter, and Shandong soared to 8.21 yuan / liter, compared with 1 liter at the beginning of the year rose by 0.7 yuan!
Entering a new cycle, the market's sentiment to fall has become stronger, and the international crude oil market has also seen a trend of rising and falling, after WTI crude oil quotations rose to $86.91 / barrel, Brent crude oil rose to $91.17 / barrel, however, in recent days, international oil prices have significantly lower performance. Although, on the 19th of this month, Israel attacked Iran, which exacerbated the market's concerns about the interruption of crude oil supply in a short period of time, and intensified the market's concern about the geopolitical tension in the Middle East getting out of control, WTI and Brent crude oil rose by more than 4% in a short period of time, and Brent crude oil rose above $90 / barrel again!
However, due to the fact that Israel and Iran briefly "met each other", the two sides behaved extremely restrained, and Iran did not intend to fight back, the impact of international crude oil liquidity was weak, and oil prices showed a fluctuating performance, so far, WTI crude oil quotations fell back to $82.01, down $4.9 from the previous high, a decrease of 5.64%. Brent crude oil was quoted at $87.27, down 4.28% from its previous high.
As of now, the floating level of crude oil is -1.81%, and the price reduction of gasoline and diesel is estimated to be 85 yuan/ton, exceeding the stranding line of 35 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to about 0.07 yuan per liter of No. 92 gasoline!
However, from a rational point of view, due to the spillover of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the United States has passed a new round of 90 billion US dollars to Israel and Ukraine, the risk of international geopolitical tension is not reduced, and the domestic oil price reduction is still facing severe pressure, and the price adjustment time will be started at 24 o'clock on April 30, and the author will continue to pay attention to the changes in the market, hoping that before the May Day holiday, domestic oil prices can usher in a hearty decline!
Attached: On April 22, the price of No. 92 gasoline at gas stations in various provinces and cities across the country!