静观NBA | 4组对决的碎碎念
On the last day before the start of the playoffs, time was pressing. Compared to the previous 4-group series, these 4 groups have two situations:
The Green Army vs. the Heat and the Thunder vs. Pelicans are both first vs. eighth in the division, and the top stars of the Heat and Pelicans will miss most of the series, further widening the gap;
It's basically old rivals who met each other, and there was a meeting in last year's playoffs (play-offs), or this year's regular season was played more thoroughly, and there was an analysis at the time.
So, let's talk about the remaining 4 groups briefly.
Nuggets VS Lakers
The Nuggets led the Lakers 3-0 in the regular season and swept 4-0 in the Western Conference finals last year. The actual gap between the two sides is not as big as the big score shows, the playoffs are very anxious, the Nuggets' play in the key stage is against the sky, and Murray can always improve the file in the playoffs. The so-called "slow simmering on low heat, collecting juice on high heat" in the regular season, can "slow simmer" indicates that there is a stalemate, and "collecting juice" is such a thing, with a shake of the hand, it is a different ending. Malone and Jokic were not modest in their interviews, while James said that the playoffs require luck, and that is. A little X-factor can change the course of a series.
Of course, the Nuggets have the upper hand.
The biggest advantage of the Lakers on the defensive end is that they have both thick eyebrows and mobility, followed by the large size of the frontcourt and does not suffer in the position, and James is a forward who can contribute to the defense in full force mode. With good single-defense habits and integrity, the Lakers can switch between a conservative overall style and increased aggression to the ball when needed, the use of non-space points, the suppression of ball carriers, and the defensive rotation of the all-space lineup, which has been a masterpiece this season.
But Jokic can single out the thick eyebrows while taking away most of his defensive attention and limiting his support to the rest of the game to the maximum. And Murray, who has a strong ability to eat alone, just grabbed the Lakers' weak backcourt defense. These two people, one dismantles the strongest point of the Lakers' defense, and the other stabs the weakness of the Lakers' defense, and the advantages of the two independent multiplication zones are superimposed, and they instantly hit explosive damage.
This advantage is there, and the Nuggets' advantage over the Lakers is there.
Ham's strategy of using Hachimura vs. Jokic and thick eyebrows vs. Gordon in the playoffs last year had some effect, but it was still cracked by various tricks of Jokic and the Nuggets, and this year's regular season used less of this strategy, and the effect does not seem to improve.
Where are the Lakers' chances this year?
The Nuggets' loss of Bruce Brown during the offseason has deeply weakened not only the transition segments, but also the versatility of the starters as a universal puzzle piece when something unexpected happens. The more distinctive Watson, Reggie, Braun, and Holiday are all difficult to add as the final piece of the puzzle without side effects, reducing the time for the Nuggets to maintain the de facto only lineup (Jokic + Murray + 3 out of 4). This is the part of the Nuggets themselves that slide.
The Lakers are without Vanderbilt, who has a limited playoff role against the Nuggets, and Schroder, who has two replacements, Dinwiddie and Vincent. The point guard value that Dinwiddie provides in the transition is undeniable. Whether he can replace Russell and Reaves in some key phases and act as a better defender to limit Murray, to be honest, I'll just have to wait and see how the game plays out. Vincent's defense is good, but the game is ultimately about both offensive and defensive ends, and Vincent's shooting feel is still groping. The Lakers currently have better space and a more balanced starting lineup with inside and outside, which can be a combination that can target the Nuggets' defense and go to the middle ground that pursues balance, and the effect may not be better.
Dinwiddie and Vincent could be listed as the X-factors that might explode, but for now I'll put a question mark on it.
An important growth point for the Lakers is their old man, James. Compared to the version that struggled with outside projection and couldn't continue to show vitality last season, James, who delivered the best three-point performance of his career this season and is in better physical condition, may be able to contribute more against the Nuggets.
In the second and fourth quarters, the Nuggets will use a lineup that can only fight defense, and even if Murray is put here, the Nuggets' space is very bad. The characteristics of the Nuggets' transition section determine that the positional battles on both sides will not be easy to play, and they need to defend to promote the fast break to solve the problem, and this is precisely the period when James leads the team, and he needs to lead the Lakers to establish an advantage.
The Nuggets are completely open-handed. The dominance of the championship five-man group is there, and the rhythm of the substitute entry to defend and play counterattacks is okay, but not at all. However, the ups and downs of different periods did not affect the Nuggets to finish the game in the closing stage, after all, the time in the transition period was still far less than that of the starting lineup. Without the X-factor, the Nuggets series will be hard to roll over.
But the Nuggets do have no margin for error, "simmer slowly, collect juice over a big fire", but the Nuggets' "strong-weak-strong-strong-weak-strong" 48-minute lineup matching, presenting an inevitable game flow. "Collecting juice" never shakes the hand, this is too against the sky, there are superstars on the opposite side, and it is too difficult to stabilize the field. And the X-factor messed into the process of disrupting the process, accidental fouls and battle damage caused a corner of the sky, even if it was temporary, the Nuggets could not afford it. The Lakers, in turn, have proven the depth of their short-term shortcomings.
Bucks VS Pacers
The Pacers led the Bucks 4-1 in the regular season.
Brother Alphabet is out injured and unclear, when the series will return.
These two upfront backgrounds already hint at the Bucks' situation.
The Bucks are difficult to beat the Pacers, mainly because they can't prevent it. In fact, the Pacers' offensive efficiency slipped in the second half of the season. Although Siakam was acquired, Haliburton's magic had subdued after all, and Neysmith's hand had declined, and the impact of losing Hield could not be ignored. But this is also in comparison with himself, since February, the Pacers' offensive efficiency is still ranked second in the league in the same period, and the defensive efficiency has even improved.
There's a counter-intuitive set of data:
Are the Pacers a three-point team?
No, they finished 18th in the league in three-point shooting.
The Pacers are good offensively, not purely by space piles. Their No. 1 position has excellent continuity in the attack, and the team's tactical literacy is excellent. The team has the league's No. 1 mid-range efficiency, combined with the ability to find the ball behind him, and Turner's two-sided threat of both down and outside, and the Pacers have a lot of ways to dismantle slow-moving centers.
Can changing the alignment allow López to play to his strengths and avoid his weaknesses?
López is afraid that he will not be able to keep up with Siakam now. Nesmith has a poor three-point crosshair after All-Star play, but he's a competent low-play outside puzzle with a large sample size. The Pacers' ability to move the ball, be aware of the ball and burst points may not be the only thing that will be fine for Lopez to stay between the bottom corner and the basket to protect the basket. In the absence of letters, the reality of insufficient number of interior rotations is here, even if Da Luo's shortcomings are magnified, the adjustments that the Bucks can make are only limited time increases and decreases, after all, when Da Luo can't prevent it, the bucks without Da Luo are often even more unguardable.
The outside line is not good, the basket barrier is removed, and there is no letter brother who can blast the Pacers at a single point. Maybe in the starting stage, the Bucks can hold up the offense and enter the rotation stage, the Pacers have continuity, but the Bucks may not have.
The letters don't come back early, and this round, the bucks are more than lucky.
Thunder VS Pelicans
Hats off again to the Pelicans. Their roaming army of perimeter leaders is indeed a nightmare for perimeter ball carriers, and with the Kings unable to adequately change their upline defense, Varan's huge size can handle it, and it is difficult for Xiao Sa to bump into him. The Pelicans' energy defense and lightning counterattack, combined with the main attacker's single eating in different positions, are still winning.
The Thunder lack the threat of holding the ball and shooting three-pointers, only looking at the main attacker, they can't rely on covering + blocking and shooting to blow up Wallan. It's a similar situation to Fox.
But the Thunder has five outside, and their five outside are aimed at mobile basket guards, and they may not be able to play the ideal effect because the last 1~2 points are not accurate, so what about catching Valan?
Whether it is against Holmgren or Giddey, Varan can't do it both inside and outside, the mobility gap is too big, and the opponent has the ability to break through with the ball. Giddey has only been allowed to shoot for a month after the season, and Holmgren has shot 32.5% from three-point range after All-Star, but completely giving the opponent an open shot is a psychological test for both sides. In the regular season trilogy, Giddey and Chet opened the game against Varland, who only played 10 minutes. Of course, Varan has the Thunder's "Thin Dog" stats, and he's going to be an outlier in this series — the other nine on the field can run and jump, and he's down to the ground and twice as wide as the others.
How effective the start is will affect the coach's mentality. The Thunder couldn't respond to the vacancy, and Varan was able to make waves for a while. Otherwise, Willy Green would have had to fall into deep thought early. If he had thought earlier that Varan was not suitable for this round, he would have to realize that Fat Tiger would not be able to play. Without Varland and Fat Tigers, the Pelicans have no defensive points to target, no point of damage to the Thunder's paint area, and two less interior rotations.
Such a pelican has become a small-ball team of doubles singles players with young and energetic puzzles, and it has become a style with the opposite Thunder - but what about the strength of the head star and the space environment? It is never easy to fight back in other people's advantageous areas, and the Thunder will never die in their own BGM.
Overall, I think the Thunder are the dominant game against the Tigerless Pelicans. Varan may be a variable in this round. Normally, his defensive weaknesses should not make up for his offensive advantage. But if Varan does, the Thunder will hurt. This means that the five foreign weapons with their coarse inaccuracy will be ineffective in the face of countermeasures of Valan's level.
Green Army VS Heat
Without Butler, will the Heat come up on the defensive end, and theoretically best suited to deal with the quality defense of a top-five team?
The single defense ability of each point is not enough. Junior Jaime in the first grade, Jovic in the second grade, Martin who is actually one size younger than the double tanhua, and, Hiro, these few people don't have the ability to lock them in one-on-one. After Rochier's return, the defensive compatibility with Herro is also questionable. The Heat's sense of teamwork will solve some problems, but the accuracy of the Green Army's five outside the five will not give too many opportunities for local support. This is the ultimate test of the Heat's timing, rotation speed, and team tacit understanding. You can indeed count on the Heat to do okay before a complete collapse.
But the Heat's sudden offensive power outage this season, burying the previous perfect defensive coordination, is by no means a two-game affair. This season, the Heat ranked 28th in the league in offensive efficiency in the fourth quarter, and without the possibility of Butler's playoffs, the frequency of power outages is probably increasing compared to the regular season. The Green Army's single-defense configuration is there, and in the starting lineup, the Heat do not have a position advantage at any point, mainly counting on the ability to cover, run without the ball and play the ability to shoot. The Green Army will at least hold back at the beginning of the series, and Hiro, Dunroe, and Rochier, will they be able to change Mazzulla's strategy before the series ends?
The power outage of the half-quarter ball was enough for the Green Army to take away with a few counterattacks and three points.
It's hard to imagine that the Heat could still work wonders without Butler.