Recently, the price fluctuations of Feitian Moutai can be said to have affected the nerves of the market, and it has also had a great impact on the sentiment of the entire liquor industry.
Recently, Weijiu has visited the national market, and will conduct in-depth discussions on the fluctuation of Moutai's batch price around market competition, macro economy, supply and demand, consumption scenarios and the upcoming May Day and Dragon Boat Festival holidays.
The retail price stood at 2,700 yuan per bottle
First of all, let's look at the market example, "Recently, the overall price has dropped by more than 100 yuan, and the terminal retail price of Feitian Moutai is currently stable at 2700 yuan / bottle, because the channels for taking the goods are different, and the transaction price of some stores is still around 2800~2900 yuan." The owner of a famous cigarette hotel in Chengdu, surnamed Huang, told Weijiu.
The same situation also happened in Beijing, in a number of cigarette hotels in Beijing, some financial media found that the price of Feitian Moutai is not as low as rumored, and now the terminal price of the market is generally around 2,700 yuan/bottle, and the price of some stores is even as high as 3,000 yuan/bottle.
In addition, in several large supermarkets in Qingyang District, Chengdu, Weijiu found that Feitian Moutai is still in a state of "long-term disconnection". According to the staff, "The price of Moutai has dropped recently, and there are many people who come to ask, but we have relatively few goods here, and they have been out of stock for more than a month."
In response to the price of Moutai in the consumer market, Huachuang Securities also put forward the latest views in the research report, "Under the effective regulation and control of the channel, the Feitian batch price has now rebounded to a benign and steady state range."
After a short-term price shock, the rapid recovery of Feitian Moutai prices is a normal situation, in the eyes of Cai Xuefei, general manager of Zhiqu Consulting, "the price is determined by the market supply and demand, and is closely related to market expectations, Moutai in the gift and business and other markets of rigid demand scarcity attributes have not changed, this is the biggest stabilizer of Feitian Moutai price." ”
Great Wall Securities believes that "in the context of the low proportion of production and sales of soy sauce wine and the difficulty of shaking the first height of the company's brand, the basic state of tight supply and demand of Feitian Moutai will not change in the short and medium term." It can be said that the anxiety caused by the excessive exaggeration of Moutai's price fluctuations has affected the whole industry, and "the impact of the price turmoil on other liquor companies is greater than that of Moutai itself."
Irreplaceable Moutai
In 2023, the total output of the national liquor industry will be 6.29 million kiloliters, down 5.1% year-on-year, sales revenue will be 756.3 billion yuan, up 9.7% year-on-year, and total profit will be 232.8 billion yuan, up 7.5% year-on-year.
Stretching the time line, the total amount of liquor in the past seven years has continued to decline, and the number of enterprises, sales revenue and profits have increased to varying degrees, which means that the structural adjustment of the industry and the phenomenon of centralized differentiation have become more prominent, and the liquor industry has completely entered the era of stock competition.
Looking at the disturbance of Moutai's batch price in this era, it is not difficult to find from the result level that the confidence and sentiment of most dealers remain stable, and there is no large-scale low-price selling.
On the demand side, the demand for high-end gifts and banquets was stable in the first quarter of this year. China's GDP grew 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, far exceeding expectations, according to official data. Some analysts believe that the issuance of an additional 1 trillion yuan of special treasury bonds at the end of October last year and a total of 500 billion yuan of mortgage supplementary loans issued from December last year to January this year have played a certain supporting role in the growth of infrastructure investment in the first quarter of this year.
Looking back on the "four trillion" in 2008 and the shed reform in 2018, the number of liquor business banquets has surged, and the growth of infrastructure investment in the first quarter has also driven the recovery of liquor business consumption demand from the side.
At the level of industry status, Moutai's leading position is unshakable, and it is still the liquor company with the most certain growth.
In 2023, Kweichow Moutai will achieve a total operating income of 150.560 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.04%, and a total profit of more than 100 billion yuan for the first time, a year-on-year increase of 18.20%, with a five-year high in performance growth and further demonstration of development resilience.
In addition, focusing on the category of soy sauce liquor, the total sales revenue of soy sauce liquor in China in 2023 will be 230 billion yuan, an increase of 20 billion yuan over the previous year, and the sales revenue of Kweichow Moutai liquor will reach 147.2 billion yuan in the same year, an increase of 23.4 billion yuan over the previous year. In terms of volume, the company accounts for more than 6% of the soy sauce and wine industry, and the company almost represents the growth of the industry in terms of increment.
It is not difficult to find that whether it is ultra-high-end attributes or industry status, there is no product that can replace Feitian Moutai.
May Day will usher in the second wave of small climaxes?
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2023, the per capita disposable income of residents nationwide will be 39,218 yuan, a nominal increase of 6.3% over the previous year, and a real increase of 6.1% after deducting price factors. It can be seen that in the face of an uncertain market and the adjustment of stable income expectations in the future, the public has returned to rational consumption and enriched their savings.
Some studies have also shown that keywords such as "emotional value", "pragmatism" and "M-shaped differentiation" constitute the "new cycle" of the consumer market, but the demand side of "more saving, unwilling to consume" and "lower price" have a profound impact on every consumer enterprise, and the recovery rate of demand is slower than that of the supply side. As mentioned by Tianfeng Securities, the recent downward trend of Moutai has more to do with changes in the demand side, and the decrease in speculative demand has led to an increase in consumer demand.
In fact, in 2024, with the "Year of Consumption Promotion" as the main line, with the successive introduction of various policies and measures to promote consumption, after entering March, Moutai's senior management has repeatedly mentioned "good start" in public meetings.
"Moutai gift attributes are strong, according to the annual consumption trend, it is normal for demand to decline from March to April, from the batch price data of the past few years, the end of April or early May will generally recover, and at the latest in the Dragon Boat Festival will release a wave of demand. A local liquor merchant from Anhui who has been in the liquor business for more than 20 years predicts.
Faced with the question of whether Moutai will reduce prices, some wine merchants bluntly said, "Under the triple pressure of 'demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations', Moutai has been achieving 'profitable growth' in the past two years, rather than relying on sacrificing profits to achieve growth. ”
Qunar big data shows that since April 6, the number of air ticket bookings in popular cities during the May Day holiday has increased day by day, with a single-day increase of 40%, and it is expected that the number of passengers during the May Day holiday is expected to hit a new high. It is foreseeable that during this year's May Day holiday, whether it is a gathering or a wedding banquet, liquor consumption will usher in a demand growth point, and the second wave of Moutai prices may be at this node.