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On April 8, some terminal dealers rumored that the current transaction price of Feitian Moutai (loose bottle) was 2,580 yuan, falling below 2,600 yuan per bottle. Market analysis believes that it may be related to 375ml Xunfeng wine (belonging to the Moutai liquor category), and the current official price is 1498 yuan / bottle, with a total volume of about 200,000 bottles. However, Kweichow Moutai subsequently responded to the rumors that the planned volume of Xunfeng Liquor accounts for a small proportion of the annual volume of Moutai, which will not have an impact on the existing price system of Moutai, and the current sales of Moutai are good.
According to Securities Daily, it is understood that the terminal retail price of Feitian Moutai in many offline cigarette hotels has stood at 2,700 yuan/bottle, and the price of some stores is even as high as 3,000 yuan/bottle. The owner of a cigarette hotel in Beijing's Haidian District said, "The price of Feitian Moutai is not so low, and the terminal price in the market is generally around 2,900 yuan per bottle." However, the staff of another cigarette hotel said, "Due to the different channels for getting the goods, the price of our Feitian Moutai is higher, 3,050 yuan per bottle."
Regarding the price fluctuation of Feitian Moutai, Cai Xuefei, general manager of Zhiqu Consulting, said that the price is determined by the relationship between supply and demand in the market, and is closely related to market expectations. After a short-term price shock, it is normal for the price of Feitian Moutai to recover quickly.
At the same time, Ouyang Qianli, a researcher in the wine industry, said that the market transaction price of Feitian Moutai is formed by the wrestling of distributors, channel dealers, collectors and other parties, and more importantly, the rhythm and form of Kweichow Moutai's volume.
Looking back at the development of the mainland liquor industry from the "Feitian Moutai price fluctuations":
-- Competing factions in China's liquor industry
According to market competitiveness and strategic execution, the mainland liquor industry can be divided into four competitive clusters, namely leaders, challengers, followers and niches.
Overall, the number of leaders and challengers in the mainland liquor industry is relatively large, mainly due to the high concentration of the industry and the continuous influx of competitors. Among them, Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Yanghe, Luzhou Laojiao, and Gujing Gongjiu occupy the leading quadrant of the liquor market with their strong market competitiveness and strategic execution; The challenger quadrant is distributed in Jinshiyuan, Kouzijiao, Shede Liquor, Yingjiagong Liquor, Shuijingfang, Jinhui Liquor, Elite and many other enterprises; In the follower quadrant, there are companies such as Drunkard Liquor, Tianyoude Liquor, Rock Shares, and Golden Seed Liquor.
——Moutai tops the list of Chinese liquor brands
According to the information released by China Brand Network, as of the end of 2022, Moutai topped the list of Chinese liquor brands, and the top ten Chinese liquor brands also include Wuliangye, Guojiao 1573, Yanghe Yanghe, Fenjiu, Jiannanchun, Langjiu, Guizhou Xijiu, Jiadaye Dajiu and Shuijingfang.
From the perspective of corporate operating income, in the first three quarters of 2022, 20 listed liquor companies achieved a total revenue of 265.826 billion yuan, and among the 20 listed liquor companies, 6 liquor listed companies had a revenue of more than 10 billion yuan in the first three quarters, namely Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanghe, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao and Gujing Gongjiu; There are 17 companies that have achieved revenue growth, and the 3 companies that have declined are Niulanshan's parent company, Shunxin Agriculture, Elite and Tianyoude Liquor.
-- Evaluation of the layout and competitiveness of enterprises in China's liquor industry
At present, listed companies in the mainland liquor industry include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanghe, Luzhou Laojiao, etc. In terms of output, in 2022, Shunxin Agriculture will have the highest output, reaching 587,600 kiloliters. However, taking into account factors such as brand value, the competitiveness of brands such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye is better.
According to the analysis of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, in the future, the structure of the liquor industry will continue to be optimized, quality consumption will be the mainstream consumption trend, the marketing of "liquor culture" will shift to the marketing of "cultural liquor", the new liquor market will arouse the attention of the liquor industry, and the strictest new national standard will allow consumers to drink good liquor clearly.
In view of the current situation and future development of the liquor industry, Song Shuyu, chairman of the China Liquor Industry Association, put forward the three strategic propositions of "building confidence, consolidating the origin, and improving value", and believed that liquor companies should take the initiative to adjust their strategies to enhance confidence, build a solid brewing source, enhance the source of talents, strengthen the source of scientific and technological innovation, and improve quality, brand, culture, etc.
Prospective Economist APP Information Group
For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the "Analysis Report on Market Demand and Investment Strategic Planning of China's Liquor Industry" by Qianzhan Industry Research Institute.
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