February to April is the peak season for school district housing, but this year is different.
First-tier cities took the lead, and there was an avalanche in the price of school district housing.
School district room, completely changed?
Let's talk about Beijing first, once as the "golden signboard" of Haidian District, the housing prices in Wanliu District have been high, and it is the best school district in Beijing.
Especially the "hummingbird home", a pit house, a small house of 44 square meters, at its peak, it can be sold for nearly 10 million!
In November last year, the house of this type fell directly to more than 6 million, 3 million less than the high one, and the mentality of many parents collapsed.
Recently, there was another pound blow, and the price fell directly below 6 million.
The house of this type did not fall below 6 million, and some people said that "6 million" is the lower limit of the price of hummingbirds, and it is also the minimum threshold of Zhongguancun three elementary schools.
A few days ago, Hummingbird Home sold a set of 43.84 square meters of west-facing studios for 5.68 million.
From 10 million+ to today's 5.68 million, it is almost halved.
The same thing happened in Shanghai.
Recently, the topic of the collapse of housing in the school district of Happy Garden has also appeared frequently on social platforms. Because it has Min Experiment as an echelon public primary school. In the past, Happy Garden had a high level of attention and was very active in transactions.
In 2021, the highest transaction price of Happy Garden is 10-90,000 yuan/㎡, 47 square meters, and the average price is 93,000 yuan/㎡.
Now, in 2024, the average listing price of Happy Garden will be 49,000 yuan/㎡, and the actual price will drop by about 2.05 million.
However, the school districts in Beijing and Shanghai combined are not as miserable as Shenzhen.
There used to be two places where the school district houses were clustered in Futian, Shenzhen, one was Bagualing and the other was Baihua District.
In 2019, with the location of Liyuan East Primary School, the annual increase in housing prices reached 80%, and at the peak, a 30-square-meter one-room with a total price of 4.35 million.
However, this year, the total transaction price of a house with the same 30 square meters in Bagualing has plummeted to 1.35 million, a drop of 68.97%, and the knee is directly cut.
Nantianer Garden in Baihua District, because of its double degree in deep experimentation, was once known as the "Hermes" in the housing of Shenzhen School District.
In 2021, the highest transaction price of a two-bedroom of 82 square meters will be 18.75 million, but the transaction price of the same type has fallen to 9.48 million recently, a decrease of about 50%.
In contrast, Guangzhou's school district housing is relatively modest, but it has fallen a lot.
Let's just say that Yuexiu District, where famous schools are gathered, Dongfang Wende Plaza of Wende Road Primary School, and Jincheng Garden, which is Dongfeng East Road Primary School, have all fallen by about 3%.
Once the top school district housing in first-tier cities, it has now ushered in a price avalanche again and again.
It can be seen that the underlying logic of the school district housing market is changing.
Generally speaking, March and April are the peak months for school district housing transactions, but because they have to rush to register in May and June, parents have to prepare in advance.
But this year, we have heard about cases of housing in school districts around the country.
Although, like some school districts in Shenzhen, the transaction volume has rebounded, but they are all exchanging price for volume, and some prices are lower than years ago.
It can be seen with the naked eye that the school district house is falling off the altar.
Why did the school district house fall so sharply in this cycle?
First, the rise is too fierce.
In 2020~2021, that wave of housing in the school district rose too sharply, and now it is just a normal pullback. In 20 and 21 years, school district housing prices everywhere increased by 30%~50%.
There are also many high-priced orders in the market, subverting everyone's cognition.
Let's just say Shenzhen, because an old and dilapidated child has high-end school district resources behind it, the unit price is actually comparable to the price of Shenzhen's luxury real estate.
If it rises too sharply, it will inevitably pull back.
In recent years, everyone's fear of marriage and pregnancy has been superimposed, and the value of school district housing has further shrunk.
The data shows that the number of young students is now declining.
In many cities, after reaching the peak of enrollment from kindergarten to primary school last year, it began to decline.
In 2023, the number of kindergarten students in Beijing will increase by 7,000 compared to 2022, reaching a historical peak. The number of births in 16~2017 has reached a peak in recent years. This was followed by a sharp decline in the number of births.
Therefore, 2023 will be the peak of Beijing's kindergarten to primary school, and then there will be a cliff-like decline, and the school district housing will also usher in great changes.
Of course, first-class school districts don't have to worry about enrollment problems, and almost all schools are estimated to be unable to recruit people, and the price of school district housing is unlikely to rebound to historical peaks.
Similarly, the same is true in Shanghai and Shenzhen, where the birth rate begins to decline after reaching its peak.
The sharp decline in the number of primary school students has affected the most fundamental demand for school district housing, which is why the price of school district housing cannot even hold the bottom line.
Could it be that the school district housing will disappear and be worthless?
Of course not, after all, high-quality educational resources are scarce at all times, so the value of school district housing will always exist.
It's just that now, the way the school district plays has changed.
On the one hand, the admissions methods of many top universities have jumped out of the concept of school districts.
Before, I saw a girl who had just gotten a Canadian work permit and asked:
Coordinates Haidian, Beijing, IELTS just over 6, the number of words is about 10,002, will there be a language barrier to work in Canada?
Then I saw a big brother in Beijing answer:
IELTS score of 6 and vocabulary of 12,000, this level is definitely not enough in Haidian, but it is definitely enough in Canada.
In the past, many parents thought that if they went to a top primary school with the right direction, they would definitely be able to go to the top junior high school steadily.
But now, taking the top junior high schools in Beijing and Shanghai as examples, people have not only looked at the school district, but also valued hard power such as resumes and AS test scores.
Therefore, if you want to go to a top cow school, you need to be hard, and you need to be particularly hard.
On the other hand, with the depreciation of academic qualifications, many parents are also thinking about which is more cost-effective to invest in such a huge cost of education or to leave this money to their children?
In today's school district, the financial investment attribute has been weakened to a very low level, and it is more like a consumer product.
And this process means that the family that buys a house in the school district is no longer the parents who smashed the pot and sold the iron chicken baby in the past, but a family that is really powerful and not bad for money.
These families have stricter requirements when choosing a school district home.
First of all, in terms of location, it must be the top plate of educational resources.
This top level does not refer to how high the upper limit of the school is, but how high the lower limit is.
For example, in Beijing's East and West Cities, almost all of the districts are famous schools, and in this case, even if there are multiple schools, it will not affect the children's education.
The second is to pursue a sense of quality and benchmark the top improvement real estate in each area.
It can be expected that the future school district housing market will face a large-scale reshuffle, and in the end, only the top school district housing with location, quality, and school district can still stand at the top of the value contempt chain.
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