When the market fell, there was a wail.
The market has improved a little, and everyone is shouting a bull market again.
In fact, whether there is a bull market or not, there is a clear weather vane.
In the past, we all used to say that the spring river plumbing duck prophet.
Now, many people have forgotten about this duck.
This duck is never absent in a bull market, brokerage.
In every round of bull market, brokerages have not been absent.
There are two established securities firms in China, one is Shenyin Wanguo and the other is CITIC Securities.
Later, Shenyin Wanguo and Hongyuan Trust merged and became known as Shenwan Hongyuan.
Shenwan Hongyuan was listed in 1994, while CITIC Securities was listed in 2003.
In the first round of the super bull market from 2006 to 2007, CITIC Securities' range rose by more than 20 times.
In the second round of the super bull market from 2014 to 2015, CITIC Securities rose more than 4 times.
In the third round of structural bull market in 2019-2020, CITIC Securities' range rose by more than 1 times.
As the plate gets bigger and bigger, although the increase has narrowed, it has never been absent.
However, so far in 2024, the vane of the bull market, CITIC Securities has not only not risen, but also seen a considerable decline.
Many people may say that this is not the time for CITIC.
CITIC has all kinds of negative news, and even everyone shouts about it, but the laws of the market will not change.
Even if you put aside this bull market standard-bearer and look at 2024 in the entire brokerage sector, it is still down.
The brokerage did not move at all, and the funds were not interested in the brokerage, and there seemed to be no expectation at all, indicating that the market had not yet come.
Of course, on the eve of the start of the bull market, brokerages generally lie flat and pretend to be dead.
Because, the real main force has to go to the layout, and it is necessary to implement the strategy of buying, buying and buying for brokers.
The negative news of many brokerages broke out on the eve of the bull market, when they wanted to short brokerages to get chips.
A brokerage plunge at the bottom is often the biggest signal that a bull market has set sail.
Most recently, on October 11, 2018, the index fell below the 2016 circuit breaker bottom of 2638, hitting a new low.
On the day, the brokerage sector plunged 8.5%.
On October 19, after the release of the inertia decline, the brokerage sector saw a historical-level bottom, more than two months earlier than the bottom of the Shanghai Composite Index in early 2019.
Moreover, in the first round of the market launched in 2019, the entire brokerage sector doubled the market.
It can be said that it is a perfect verification of the market cycle of the brokerage one step ahead.
But this time the brokerage was absolutely unexpected.
Except for February 6, when the entire brokerage sector rose 6.3%, the subsequent trend is indescribable.
The absolute wind leader, CITIC Securities, fell all the way to 17.26 after rebounding to 21.8.
The cumulative decline in the range is more than 20%.
The funds didn't want to pull the brokerage at all, because this stage is not a bull market at all, but a stage before the bull market, digging pits and getting chips.
If the brokerage will not miss the bull market, then before the bull market starts, the lower the brokerage is suppressed, the cheaper the chips, the better.
The market is always a game that revolves around chips, nothing more.
If it falls, it scolds its mother, and when it rises, it shouts that the bull market is coming.
This wrong way will never grow.
Many people want to find a bull market, and they want to identify whether the bull market is coming, how to look at the signal, and how to judge.
In addition to the actions of brokers, I will give you a few very clear criteria.
1. How to solve the problem of funding.
Money is needed to drive the rise, and this fund must be at the trillion-level level.
In the last round of bull market, public funds swelled, and hundreds of millions of funds entered the market.
The last round of bull market was promoted by over-the-counter allocation, and leveraged funds entered the market in a big way.
As for the 06-07 years, the earlier 99-01 years were all bull markets driven by a large number of retail investors.
Nowadays, if you don't see incremental funds, how can you come to the bull market.
The problem of funds is an unavoidable problem that must be solved.
Otherwise, there is no money to speculate on the bull market, and it is a complete empty word.
Of course, we are not short of money, and it is very easy to move trillions of dollars in bank deposits.
M2 is already 300 trillion, and it is not impossible to release water into the stock market, the question is how, when to put it, and why to put it into the stock market.
2. Which direction is the main line?
Every bull market has a main line.
06-07 years is non-ferrous metals, 14-15 years is the gem, 19-21 years is big consumption.
The main line of the big bull market is certainly not a small plate, such as the low-altitude economy.
The main line of the big bull market must be a large sector, large enough to occupy 20% of the market volume, or even higher.
If financial power is the main line, then big finance still has a long way to go.
At present, there is no clear main line, a main line large enough, to accommodate funds and speculate on the market.
Only after this direction surfaces will the market officially start, and there will be a so-called big bull market.
3. The starting point is not low enough.
Big bull markets start at very low levels.
998 is where everyone thinks it will not fall below 1000.
1664 is the time when everyone thinks it will not fall below 2000, including 1849, 1949, two sub-lows.
From 2850, to 2638, to 2440, these are the lows that have refreshed the bottom line again and again.
These lows are the starting point of the big bull market.
From 2885, 2863, to 2635, are the lows low enough?
There is no one definitive answer, but these lows can at least bring a small market, whether it is a big bull market, it will take time to confirm.
4. The mood is not particularly bad.
In the end, the market is actually the reincarnation of emotions.
You can imagine what emotions are like when you are in 998.
If you haven't experienced it, think about 1664, think about 1849, think about 2440, think about these lows.
I haven't experienced any of this, so 2635 has always experienced it, how is the mood?
The starting point of a big bull market must be a sufficient emotional low, and this has nothing to do with valuation.
The market is to kill the person holding the position to collapse, and then obediently hand over the chips, which is the real low point and has the basis of a bull market.
It's not about cutting meat on the floor, it's about cutting meat in the basement.
If all the above four are satisfied, there will be a real bull market.
Most of the market is actually "short-lived", that is, a small cycle of a few months.
The market of small cycles often has one or two of these factors.
For example, this round of rebound appeared in the case of poor mood, the main line was not particularly clear, the starting point was not particularly low, and the increment did not know where.
To make a judgment on the cycle, you need to have a comprehensive understanding of the market in order to see through where the opportunities and cycles are.