China Fund News reporter Zhang Yanbei and Sun Xiaohui
Driven by factors such as the international situation and rising risk aversion, crude oil and gold prices have continued to rise recently. Affected by this, investors concentrated on buying gold and crude oil theme funds, resulting in a number of commodity-themed LOF at high premiums on the scene, and fund companies issued intensive announcements to warn of risks.
According to the fund managers surveyed, the price trend of gold and crude oil is cyclical, and investors need to pay attention to short-term risks. However, from a medium- to long-term perspective, commodity prices are still operating in a volatile upward range.
A number of commodity-themed LOF suggest premium risk
Recently, a number of commodity-themed LOF funds have concentrated on the premium risk.
On the evening of April 18, E Fund announced that the secondary market trading price of its E Fund Gold Theme Fund (LOF) Class A share was significantly higher than the net value of the fund's shares, and investors may face significant losses if they buy at a high premium.
According to the net value of 0.94 yuan on April 16 and the closing price of 1.276 yuan in the secondary market on April 18, the premium rate has exceeded 35%.
At the same time, in order to protect the interests of investors, E Fund announced that it would suspend trading from the market open to 10:30 on April 19. As recently as April 18, the fund also experienced a trading suspension.
Coincidentally, on the same day, E Fund Crude Oil LOF (QDII) Class A RMB Shares and Sino Global Oil & Gas Energy Stocks (LOF) both issued premium risk warning announcements.
In the past few trading days, the above-mentioned funds have issued several announcements to warn of premium risks. Among them, Sino Global Oil & Gas Energy LOF also carried out a temporary suspension operation on April 18.
It is worth mentioning that as of the close of trading on the morning of April 19, the secondary market prices of the above products remained high. Among them, the trading price of E Fund crude oil LOF, which has been suspended before 10:30 a.m. today, increased by 8.04% in the secondary market at noon, and the latest price was 1.599 yuan, the secondary market trading price of Sino Global Oil & Gas Energy LOF increased by 6.89%, and the latest price was 1.442 yuan, and the secondary market price of E Fund gold theme LOF increased by 3.84% to 1.325 yuan.
Relevant companies remind that the trading price in the secondary market, in addition to the risk of fluctuations in the net value of fund shares, will also be affected by other factors such as market supply and demand, systemic risk, liquidity risk, etc., please pay attention to the premium risk in the secondary market, and the premium purchase in the secondary market will allow investors to bear additional premium costs in addition to the traditional market risk.
In fact, in addition to the above-mentioned commodity-themed LOF funds, Shenwan Lingxin Quantitative Small Cap Equity LOF and Huaxia Pansheng Flexible Allocation LOF have also issued risk warnings on the trading price premium in the secondary market. In addition, QDIIs such as Invesco Great Wall Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted ETF, ChinaAMC Nomura Nikkei 225 ETF, ICBC Credit Suisse Daiwa Nikkei 225 ETF have also intensively issued premium risk warnings.
Why is there a premium?
Driven by the continuous rise in commodity prices, crude oil and gold theme funds have made a lot of gains this year, and their performance among various types of funds has been outstanding.
As of April 17, the net value of crude oil-themed LOF and gold-themed LOF in the whole market has risen by 10%-15% since the beginning of the year, among which E Fund Crude Oil (QDII) temporarily leads with a yield of up to 17.5%.
However, statistics show that in addition to the above products, most commodity LOF, equity LOF and index LOF are in the range of a slight discount premium.
So why do some products have high premiums?
An industry insider in South China said that when the price of crude oil and gold rises, investors often think that this upward trend will continue, so they are willing to actively buy related funds, resulting in an increase in the price of the market and a significant deviation from the net value of the fund.
A fund manager said, "Most of the QDII oil and gas energy theme funds in the market are LOF products, and there are also LOF products in gold funds. LOF does not have a market maker and can only trade by matching buyers and sellers. If the seller continues to increase the selling price, it will cause the secondary market price to deviate from the intrinsic value of the fund itself, thus forming a premium. ”
However, industry insiders remind that under normal circumstances, the trading of LOF shares on the floor of commodity funds is not active, and the transaction price may deviate significantly from the actual net value of the fund. If investors buy LOF shares at a premium or sell them at a discount, they may face a greater risk of loss than if they directly subscribe and redeem fund shares.
We are cautiously optimistic about the outlook for commodities and need to pay attention to the risk of a pullback in the short term
For the future market of bulk commodities, the public offering industry as a whole is cautiously optimistic.
Regarding the future performance of crude oil, Wells Fargo Fund said that in the short term, the risk of inflation in the United States comes more from the volatility of energy and food prices than strong employment data. Looking forward, we need to pay attention to the trend of core inflation indicators, if the growth rate of core inflation in the United States continues to decline, there is still a high probability of starting an interest rate cut cycle this year, which will further drive up crude oil prices.
Yang Yang, fund manager of Huabao Fund, said that at the current point in time, the rigidity of supply makes any rebound in demand or the disturbance of geopolitical risks drive oil prices upward, and the oil and gas sector enters the right side of the opportunity. In the medium and long term, in the context of the global energy transition, the phenomenon of high prices of traditional energy and insufficient investment by upstream enterprises will remain for a long time until the supply of new energy instead of traditional energy becomes the mainstream. We can look for opportunities in each pullback of non-structural changes, but we must also do a good job in risk management and be alert to the risks brought about by structural changes on the supply side caused by "black swan" events.
Huaan Fund judged that the new high of gold in this round is mainly driven by the capital side, which fully reflects the optimistic expectations of the market for the fundamentals in the near future, and the long trading is gradually crowded, and the risk of a pullback needs to be paid attention to in the short term. Looking ahead to the full year, they are bullish on the value of gold as a central bank's "de-dollarization" allocation in the medium to long term.
In the long run, Guotai Fund also believes that the overall trend of the global economic recession, the rising demand for additional gold purchases by global central banks, and the global trend of "de-dollarization" make gold expected to become a new round of pricing anchor, which makes precious metals expected to have upward momentum. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, global macroeconomic trends and global central bank gold purchases.
In terms of gold, Wang Xiang, fund manager of Bosera Gold ETF, analyzed that on the whole, the short-term market price has been dominated by game sentiment, which has deviated from the fundamental guidance, and the probability of adjustment is increasing rapidly. However, this will bring a rare opportunity to re-enter the investors who are not in the car in the process of this rapid rise.
"If the subsequent macro evolution does develop towards reflation, then the high bond interest payments and fiscal deficits in the United States, as well as the gradual depletion of the U.S. liquidity safety cushion, mean that the Fed has limited room for further tightening, so that the real interest rate, which is highly negatively correlated with gold assets, will really expand the downside, and the trading odds of gold will increase significantly. Wang Xiang said.
Editor: Xiao Mo
Review: Muyu