Recently, ASML released its results for the first quarter of 2024.
To be honest, the performance was really not good enough, with revenue of 5.3 billion euros, down 22% year-on-year and 27% quarter-on-quarter, and net profit of 1.2 billion euros, down 38% year-on-year and 40% quarter-on-quarter.
What's more, the total value of new orders in the first quarter fell far short of expectations, at 3.6 billion euros, down 61 percent from the previous quarter, compared to 9.2 billion euros in the fourth quarter of last year.
From the sales volume of lithography machines, only 70 units were sold in the first quarter, a decrease of 58 units or 47% from 124 units in the previous quarter.
Many people said that this is because Chinese mainland does not buy ASML's lithography machines, so ASML's lithography machine shipments have decreased, revenue has declined, and profits have declined.
So is this really the case? I'm afraid that putting the data out will be a big slap in the face, that is, in the first quarter, China is still buying ASML's lithography machines.
2024Q1对比2023Q4
As shown in the figure above, this is the data comparison of Q4 in 2023 and Q1 in 2024, you can see that Chinese mainland will contribute 49% of revenue in 2024, that is, close to half of ASML's revenue, and in Q4 of 2023, it will only be 39%, an increase of 10 percentage points, if calculated, 5.3 billion euros of revenue, Chinese mainland will contribute 49%, which is about 2.6 billion euros.
If compared with Q1 2023, ASML's revenue this quarter is 6.75 billion euros, and Chinese mainland contributes only 8%, which is 540 million euros.
In this comparison, it means that in Q1 2024, the amount of lithography machines purchased by China from ASML will reach 2.6 billion euros, an increase of 381% compared with 540 million euros in the first quarter of last year, and the amount paid is about 5 times that of last year!!
You also say that China does not buy ASML's lithography machines? Under the five-fold increase, you say that we will not buy them, is it a bit funny?
In fact, according to customs data, from January to February 2024 alone, we imported 32 lithography machines to ASML, with an import value of up to 1.057 billion US dollars (about 7.6 billion yuan), an increase of 256%, which is available for data.
This has proved that it is not that China does not buy ASML's lithography machines, but that China has supported ASML's revenue, but that other countries and regions have bought less in this quarter, and ASML is all supported by China.
Why do we need so many lithography machines? The reason is that our own lithography machines are so inadequate.
According to public data, the process supported by the domestic front-end lithography machine is still at 90nm, which means that once we want to manufacture chips below 90nm, we need imported lithography machines.
At present, there are only three manufacturers in the world that can produce lithography machines below 90nm, namely ASML, Japan's Canon, and Nikon.
ASML's ban is still relatively relaxed, NXT:2000i and above immersion DUV equipment can not be exported, only a very few customers, can not buy NXT:1970i and NXT:1980i these, most customers are fine, and NXT:1980i can support up to 7nm, or even 5nm, of course, we have to buy.
Canon's lithography machine, excluding the nanoimprint machine that does not know the truth or falsehood, that is, the 90nm level, is basically the same as our domestic production, so it is better not to buy it. Nikon's lithography machine can reach 7nm, but Japan's ban is stricter, so ASML is relatively more reliable.
Therefore, we are still buying ASML's lithography machine, because there is no way to replace it, the situation is still quite grim, and domestic lithography machines will inevitably rise, what do you think?