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First, the price trend
According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, domestic LNG prices have been rising this week. As of April 18, the average price of domestic LNG was 4,050 yuan/ton, up 3.42% from the average price of 3,916 yuan/ton on April 11.
As of April 18, the LNG offer in the domestic mainstream market:
| region | quote |
| Inner Mongolia region | 4000-4250 yuan/ton |
| Shaanxi region | 3950-4130 yuan/ton |
| Shanxi region | 3950-4150 yuan/ton |
| Ningxia region | 4030-4180 yuan/ton |
| Hebei region | 4130-4180 yuan/ton |
| Henan region | 4050-4300 yuan/ton |
| Sichuan region | 3750-4000 yuan/ton |
| Jilin region | 4130-4150 yuan/ton |
| Shandong region | 4500 yuan/ton |
2. Market analysis
Fundamental analysis
International aspects
International LNG spot prices have risen sharply in recent days, mainly due to the reduction in US exports and the suspension of Russian projects, as well as geopolitical factors. Affected by the rise in imported gas prices, domestic liquefied natural gas followed the rise, stimulating the price increase of domestic terminals. At present, LNG prices have risen both on land and sea.
Domestic aspect
On the supply and demand side: Since mid-April, the domestic LNG market has risen steadily. In some areas, the maintenance of liquefied plant units has increased, and the supply of LNG market has decreased. In the case of tighter supply, low liquid prices began to push upwards. In addition, the enthusiasm for downstream replenishment has increased, the market demand has recovered, and the adjustment atmosphere of the liquid plant is obvious.
In terms of cost: At present, the pressure on upstream inventory is not large, and the liquid level is controllable, the market is actively pushing up, the price mentality is more obvious, and the transportation is also relatively smooth. The firm cost market has some support for LNG.
Technical-level analysis
According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, since April 11, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30-day moving average to start an upward trend, and the current two moving averages are both upward. According to the calculation of April 14, 2024, the probability of a change in the operating situation (that is, the 7-day moving average crossing the 30-day moving average) in the next 7 days is 40.79%. It is expected that there is a high probability that LNG will continue to run upward in the short term.
3. Forecast for the future
Analysts from the business community believe that the recent high price of imported gas has stimulated the rise of domestic gas, coupled with the favorable support of the supply and demand side, domestic LNG prices have risen intensively. From a technical point of view, there is also a high probability of upward movement. In summary, it is expected that domestic LNG prices will continue to rise in the short term.