Why can't the Lakers beat the Nuggets?

The Lakers haven't beaten the Nuggets in nearly 500 days, losing their last eight meetings, including the playoffs. Why can't the Lakers always beat the Nuggets? In this year's first-round matchup, will they have a chance to stage the "Black Seven Miracle"? The key to breaking the game may lie in this "fraudster" who has been scolded by Lakers fans for most of the season.

Why can't the Lakers beat the Nuggets?

The Lakers' frontcourt combination (2.08 meters thick eyebrows, 2.06 meters James and 2.03 meters Hachimura) can be an advantage for most teams (overall weight 331 kilograms), but against the Nuggets, they can't take advantage. Although Porter (2.08,98 kg) is not as muscular, the total weight of Jokic + Gordon + Porter still reaches 332 kg. Generally speaking, the heavier the Lakers play against the heavier frontcourt, the worse they will perform.

ESPN data shows that the Lakers have a 7-10 record and an average loss of 2.2 points per game against teams with a total frontcourt weight of at least 730 pounds (about 331 kilograms), while against a team with a total frontcourt weight of less than 670 pounds (about 304 kilograms) against the three main frontcourt weights of less than 670 pounds (about 304 kilograms), the Lakers have a record of 16-6 and an average of 3.9 points per game. To put it simply, the Nuggets' size and skill offset the Lakers' ability to defend the restricted area. In last year's Western Conference finals, the Nuggets had an offensive efficiency of 122.0, which was their best offensive efficiency in four playoff rounds, and this year's regular season three times against the Lakers, their offensive efficiency was also 125.0, which is the third highest offensive efficiency of any opponent they faced.

This season, the Nuggets shot 59 percent from two-point range against the Lakers, which is not only higher than their season average of 56 percent, but also well above the Lakers' average of 54 percent. Against the Lakers in last year's Western Conference finals, the Nuggets shot 40 percent from three-point range, and in the three regular season meetings this year, the Nuggets shot 42 percent from three-point range, the second-best performance against any team in the West.

While the Nuggets have a high shooting percentage, the Lakers and Nuggets usually have a close game. Two of the three meetings in the regular season this year went to crunch time, and three of the four meetings in last year's Western Conference finals went to crunch time, that is, the final five minutes were within five points. The Nuggets' performance in key moments is significantly stronger than the Lakers, and it is also the key for them to restrain their opponents.

The data shows that the Nuggets scored 28 points in the key moments of last year's Western Conference finals, while the Lakers only scored 13 points. Scoring at key moments in the regular season clash this season, the Nuggets also led the Lakers 27-10.

Vincent may become the Lakers break the X-factor

In the play-off game against the Pelicans, the Lakers trailed by 10 points in the second quarter, and Vincent was a key player for the Lakers to catch up. He effectively limited McCollum's play, allowing opponents to score just nine points (4-of-15 shooting), while Vincent also scored nine points, but was significantly more efficient, shooting 3-of-6 from the field and 2-of-4 from three-point range. His performance has been praised by several members of the Lakers management.

Vincent only played 11 games in the regular season due to a knee injury, and because the Lakers used almost all of the middle class to sign him, he missed most of the games, and during the season, he was also sprayed by Lakers fans, and was even directly called a "fraudster". Vincent, who returned to the roster in late March, is gradually finding his form and may come in handy in the first round of the playoffs.

Looking at the following set of data, last year's Western Conference finals against the Lakers, Murray averaged 32.5 points per game, and the three-point shooting rate was 53/41/95, which was unstoppable, while in the finals last year, Murray averaged only 21.4 points per game, and the three-point shooting rate was 45/39/93.

According to Second Spectrum's tracking data, Murray scored 30.9 points per 100 possessions during Vincent's main defense against Murray, and 36.9 points per 100 possessions when facing Schroder in the Western Conference finals.

Another key personnel change for both sides compared to last year's Western Conference Finals was the departure of Bruce Brown, who averaged 12.4 points per game and shot 52.8% from the field against the Lakers last season, and locked Russell well on the defensive end, allowing the Lakers guard to even be demoted to the bench in G4. Without Brown's blockade, could Russell have an explosion this year?

James, meanwhile, said he was also in much better health than he was during last year's Western Conference final. Today, the outside world is still generally not optimistic about the Lakers, and the NBA's official website even predicts that the Nuggets will still sweep the Lakers 4-0. Can the Lakers prove themselves? On April 21, the first game between the two sides will be played, who do you think will come out on top?