The next two years will be the explosion period of pure electric models.
In this regard, it is useless to be reluctant, the trend has already formed. Just look at the new car structure of car companies:
Pure electric/extended range has become a "thousand favors" and has begun to become popular. After all, car companies only produce pure electricity, and pure electric vehicles can't be developed without development, right? However, when the market is hot, people have to cool down.
Because, the change of pure electric technology is too fast!
Some people predict that in the next two years, buying "pure electricity" will also face three risks, which need to be taken precautions in advance.
The first risk is that the cutting-edge trams will become obsolete in the blink of an eye
This is very different from the era of oil trucks.
A 2.0T plus a 60L fuel tank, in a hundred years, the oil truck is just that.
For example, if you buy an Accord, you will be an old Accord 5 years later, stabilizing the Civic. The tram is more like a digital product, just like a Xiaomi mobile phone, and after two years, the performance is not as good as that of Redmi.
On the train, the "flowering period" of cutting-edge technology is really short-lived.
Like high-end intelligent driving, last year's question came out of the world, but this year it is not majestic, DJI put the same technology on 80,000 cars.
For example, the battery, last year, the Kirin battery came out to dominate the limelight, with a range of more than 700 kilometers, which is still the luxury exclusive to the top configuration.
However, this year is not majestic, Xiaomi, AVATAR, more than 200,000 cars, the starting point is 700 kilometers.
This is only for now, soon, NIO, Haobo 150 degree solid-state batteries are also coming, and the standard will be raised to 1000 kilometers again.
Similarly, this year, many car companies have only given the 400V platform, and 800V will be popularized next year.
To know that this is not all, take a look at the new technologies that car companies have announced.
Like Lynk & Co's digital chassis, BYD's Tianyan intelligent driving, and Chery's vector four-motor.
In general, these new technologies involve all aspects of a car, and they will blossom everywhere in the next two years and become the basic configuration.
To put it bluntly, this is also the market is too volatile, and if you don't give a little effort, you can't get ahead at all.
However, car companies rely on the first-mover advantage of technology to earn enough market and reputation.
And every time the technology is updated, there will inevitably be a number of old cars that become outdated products.
It's just that this speed is too heartbreaking.
The second risk is that the rate of depreciation will fall rapidly
The depreciation rate of pure electric vehicles was originally lackluster, and in the past two years, it has been even worse.
Let's not talk about second-hand, let's take a look at the first-hand.
Taking the Denza N7 as an example, this car was launched in July last year, and it ushered in a facelift in just 9 months, with a price reduction of 62,000, which is equivalent to a 79% discount.
And, let's not forget that there are also technical upgrades to the new car.
At this time, the mood of the old car owner can no longer bear to imagine. This can be seen in the current depreciation rate of trains.
The statistics bear witness to this bleakness.
According to a report by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in February this year, the three-year value retention rate of pure electric models was 54.8%. In March, it fell to 52.5%.
This is still a macro number, and when it comes to models, it may be lower.
For example, compact and small SUVs have always been the hardest hit by the depreciation rate, and it is not surprising that the actual depreciation rate is less than 50%.
Or 400V and 800V cars, the former will fall faster in the future due to backward technology.
The current tram is far from being "complete".
As the price war progresses, it is foreseeable that the depreciation rate of electric cars will not improve for a long time to come.
In other words, if you want to start in the next two years, this loss can be said to be a certainty.
The third risk is that repair costs are rising at a light rate
Regarding the battle between oil and electricity, it is an unavoidable topic to raise a car, and the tram always wins overwhelmingly.
But it's far from that simple.
In terms of energy consumption, maintenance and other costs, the tram is indeed superior.
However, once the damage occurs, the cost of repairing the tram becomes precarious again.
Take the central control screen as an example, it has now developed to 15 inches, 16 inches, car companies have also canceled the physical buttons, and many functions are integrated on the screen, so that you can't repair it, and if it is broken, it will cost about 4,000.
Another example is the radar and camera sensors used in intelligent driving, there are more than 30, like the following Xiaopeng car owner, it costs 8916 yuan to change an original lidar.
Not to mention that there are electric suction doors, electric sunroofs, refrigerators, color TVs, massage seats...
It can only be said that these configurations are very cool to use, but they are really head-scratching to repair.
At the same time, in the automobile manufacturing process, Tesla has also led the trend of integrated die-casting.
So much so that nowadays, there is no car of a certain grade that is not integrated stamping.
Even, car companies are competing for "tonnage", such as Huawei is 9,000 tons, Xiaomi is 9,100 tons, and Xiaopeng is stunned to 12,000 tons.
How does this process increase the cost of repairs?
To put it bluntly, integrated die-casting is a car company in order to save costs.
For example, there are 300-400 parts, and it is very troublesome to make them one by one.
First simplified into 2 large parts, and then pressed out at once with a stamping machine, rattling fast, 10 hours to build a Model Y, the cost of reducing 40%, prompting Tesla to become the most profitable car company.
Which car company is not confused?
However, this is to save the cost of car companies, but the cost has to be borne by car owners.
Because, if one place is broken, the entire casting must be replaced.
It may be said that it is equivalent to repairing more than 300 parts at a time, and the cost is not an increase of one and a half stars.
For example, the owner of a Model Y, a 280,000 car, the butt of the car was damaged, and the maintenance estimate was 200,000.
In general, pure electric vehicles are an undoubted trend in the future development of automobiles, otherwise car companies would not be so eager to update their technology.
Judging by the current trend, it will only take three to five years for the tram to mature.
But in the coming years, which will not yet be ripe, the marginal risk posed by a single tram will also be the greatest.
If you are not a local tyrant and want a big toy, it is better to choose a hybrid or gasoline car transition.
Wait until the technology is mature before considering the tram.