Text: Historical Records of Landscapes
Edited |
Recently, Tesla, as a leader in the global electric vehicle industry, has faced a challenge rarely seen in history.
On April 15, Tesla experienced a sharp decline in the market value of its stock, which was equivalent to the complete evaporation of the market value of an ideal car, and at the same time, the company's CEO Elon Musk announced plans to lay off more than 14,000 employees.
These situations have attracted wide public attention and sparked public interest in an in-depth analysis of their potential causes and their possible impacts.
First of all, this plunge in Tesla's stock price may be related to the short-selling activity of Wall Street capital. Tesla and the bears have long been in a state of opposition, like natural enemies.
In the more than a decade since Tesla went public, bears have outpaced bulls in Tesla stock for most of the time, and the confrontation between the two sides reached its peak in 2020.
At that time, the bears had planned to crush Tesla by taking advantage of the consumption recession caused by the pandemic, but the fact is that Tesla's stock price soared more than sevenfold in that year, causing the bears to suffer a huge loss of more than $40 billion.
Heading into 2022, the bears once again see an opportunity to take advantage of it.
First, the Federal Reserve's more aggressive interest rate hikes, followed by Elon Musk's massive reduction of his stock holdings (more than $20 billion in cash in a year) in order to raise funds to buy Twitter, combined to create a double whammy for Tesla's stock price, giving the impression that it was about to reach a tipping point.
And this tipping point is Tesla's poor sales performance in the fourth quarter.
In the first three quarters, Tesla's global sales reached 90,000 units, however the consensus is that reaching the global sales target of 150,000 units this year is largely impossible.
At the same time, the number of orders of the company is rapidly decreasing.
By the end of November, Tesla's global order backlog had decreased to 190,000 vehicles from 285,000 at the end of October, while its order backlog in the U.S. market had also fallen to less than 60,000 units, showing a clear downward trend.
If the increase in interest rates is seen as a macroeconomic factor, and the stock selling behavior of the founders is seen as a regular activity in the capital market, then the decline in the company's car sales directly touches the core problem of the company's operation, which is the "triple stack" state that the bears are happy to see.
In the United States, the stock market has endured short selling because, from the regulator's point of view, it is a mechanism to correct market errors through market means.
Even though there are occasional malicious short-selling in the market, most of the companies affected by short-selling do encounter major or minor problems at the core business level, which may range from opaque financial statements to lack of market expansion capabilities.
However, from the current perspective, Tesla has not been involved in any financial fraud controversy, and the market growth potential is not a problem for it.
The main fundamental challenge Tesla is currently facing is the expected slowdown in growth rates, which is largely related to the interest rate hikes implemented in the United States.
Given that more than 80% of consumers in the U.S. rely on loans to buy cars, it is likely that people's willingness to buy a car will take a hit once the interest rate from banks rises.
However, there is a view that Wall Street capital may not only short Tesla to curb the development of the electric vehicle industry, but also to indirectly exert pressure on China.
As one of the global leaders in the electric vehicle market, China occupies an expanding position in Tesla's global market share.
By manipulating Tesla's influence, Wall Street may be trying to intervene in the direction of China's new energy electric vehicle market, thereby influencing China's economic and technological strength. China's support for Tesla has played a crucial role.
In 2019, Tesla opened its mega factory in the Lingang Industrial Park in Shanghai, China, a move that not only marks Tesla's further expansion in the Chinese market, but also reflects the deepening cooperation between China and the United States in the new energy industry.
The Chinese government has provided policy support, financial assistance and land resources, which have created favorable conditions for Tesla's success in China.
This measure not only helped Tesla break through the limitations of production capacity, but also promoted the rapid development of China's new energy vehicle industry, and gave birth to the rise of domestic new energy vehicle brands such as BYD and NIO.
Through such cooperation, China has not only strengthened its leading position in the global new energy field, but also further promoted the exchange of technology and capital between domestic and foreign enterprises.
For Tesla, the Chinese market is not only a sales channel, but also a key part of its global strategic layout. The Chinese government's support for Tesla is reflected in the provision of land, loans, and policy incentives, which have significantly accelerated Tesla's business development in China.
Tesla's Gigafactory in Lingang, Shanghai, has not only significantly increased its global production capacity, but also reduced costs through localized production and improved service responsiveness to the Chinese market and the entire Asian region.
Such a strategic arrangement not only gives Tesla a stronger competitive advantage in the market, but also injects a new impetus into the growth of the mainland's new energy vehicle industry.
So, will the operations of Tesla's production facility in Shanghai be affected?
Judging from the current situation, it seems that the operation and production activities of Tesla's production base in Shanghai have not suffered a major impact. The Chinese government continues to actively support the development of the new energy vehicle industry, and Tesla's market prospects in China remain promising.
Still, Tesla's sharp drop in stock price and planned layoffs could adversely affect its brand image and reputation in the global market to some extent.
In fact, this sharp drop in Tesla's stock price is not accidental. Since Tesla's share price climbed to an all-time high of $414.497 per share, its market value has lost 61%, with a loss of more than 4 trillion yuan.
This reduction is more than double the market value of China's leading electric vehicle companies BYD, Nio, Xpeng and battery maker CATL combined.
Such a huge evaporation of market capitalization has raised concerns among investors about Tesla's future growth potential. However, despite all the difficulties, Tesla remains a leader in the electric vehicle industry, maintaining its industry-leading position in technology and innovation.
Looking ahead, Tesla must continue to invest in technological research, optimize product quality, and enhance market competitiveness in order to cope with the increasingly competitive market environment.
At the same time, the government and the industry should also increase support and regulation of the electric vehicle industry to promote the healthy development of the entire industry. The plunge in Tesla's share price has prompted people to think deeply about the movements of Wall Street capital and the outlook for the electric vehicle industry.
In such an environment, Tesla should have the courage to face the test of the market and further consolidate its capabilities, and at the same time, China's electric vehicle industry should also learn from the lessons, enhance its core competitiveness, and enter a future of sustainable development.
Resources:
"Global layoffs of 10%, stock price falls, what happened to Tesla?", China News Network