Text: Historical Curiosity
Edited by the Historical Institute
Since Marcos became president of the Philippines, the situation in the South China Sea has become increasingly tense and complex. Although all sides on the mainland continue to show sincerity and hope to resolve the dispute through consultations, the Philippines does not seem to buy it and has taken more aggressive actions.
The Philippine side has frequently organized fleets and so-called "scientific researchers" to illegally invade the mainland's Ren'ai Jiao, Scarborough Shoal, Tiexian Reef and other areas, and has distorted the facts and made false reports by editing videos afterwards.
In the face of such behavior by the Philippines, the mainland has lost patience and issued an ultimatum to the Philippines, demanding that it tow away the abandoned ships stranded on Ren'ai Jiao.
Surprisingly, Marcos not only did not accept this demand, but instead took a tougher stance against the mainland with the support and instigation of the United States, and even drew so-called "red lines" as a way to limit the mainland's actions in the region.
At the first trilateral summit meeting of the United States, Japan, and the Philippines in Washington, the Biden administration openly used the Philippine position on the South China Sea issue to contain the mainland's development.
In order to make the Philippines more confident in provoking the mainland, the Biden administration has claimed that the United States will defend the Philippines in the South China Sea, and if Philippine warplanes, ships or troops are attacked, the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty will be triggered and the United States will intervene militarily.
After receiving strong assurances from the United States, the Philippines' provocative behavior has become more and more brazen.
The day after the meeting, the Philippine foreign secretary made challenging public remarks, declaring that the Philippines intends to defend its sovereignty in the self-proclaimed "exclusive economic zone" of the South China Sea.
He also expressed strong dissatisfaction with the mainland coast guard's use of water cannons to intercept Philippine ships, describing it as harassment by the Chinese side and arguing that the Philippines can only effectively deal with the mainland by strengthening military cooperation with the United States.
If this is just a diplomatic statement, Marcos's statement in the interview was even more frank.
He openly said that he did not know anything about the so-called "gentlemen's agreement" between China and the Philippines over the Ren'ai Jiao issue, and made it clear that even if such an agreement existed, he would not admit it, and could even ignore its existence.
Although the Philippine government has expressed its willingness to engage in multi-level negotiations with the mainland and discuss the status quo of islands in the South China Sea, its practical actions have constantly challenged the mainland's sovereignty.
On April 13, the mainland issued an "ultimatum" to the Philippines, clearly setting out three specific demands.
First of all, the Philippines is required to abide by its commitments and stop its provocative acts, and it is also required that the Philippines tow away the landing ship illegally staying at Ren'ai Jiao as soon as possible, and at the same time demand that the Philippines restore Ren'ai Jiao to an uninhabited and unequipped state.
In addition, based on humanitarian considerations, the Chinese side said that if it is really necessary to provide basic daily necessities to the people on board before towing away from the ship, as long as the Philippine side notifies in advance and accepts on-site inspections, it can carry out replenishment under the full supervision of the Chinese side.
According to the mainland's view, if the Philippines is serious about de-escalating tensions in the South China Sea through negotiations, then they should show real "sincerity" and fulfill their previous commitments to quickly tow the Beached away from the relevant waters.
Since Marcos became president of the Philippines, he has repeatedly expressed his hope for a negotiated settlement of the South China Sea issue, but so far there has been no substantial progress.
The Philippines has been trying to persuade other countries to intervene in the South China Sea and challenge the mainland's maritime rights and interests in the region. The mainland's response to the Philippines' recent actions is not unexpected.
The leaders of the United States, Japan, and the Philippines have launched a series of provocative actions in the South China Sea region, and have wrongly criticized and blamed China for its lawful measures.
In the face of the Philippines' continued provocations, the mainland has chosen to issue warnings through diplomatic channels rather than directly using force, which has demonstrated the mainland's great self-restraint and sincerity for the peaceful settlement of disputes.
However, the Philippines does not seem to appreciate it. Less than 48 hours after the mainland issued an ultimatum, Marcos reversed his previous position in public on April 15, acknowledging that the four new bases provided to the U.S. military last year were actually designed to counter the mainland's activities in the South China Sea.
Marcos even took a tougher stance, asserting that if Philippine forces were attacked by "foreign forces" in the South China Sea and suffered casualties, the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty would be activated and the U.S. military would intervene militarily to limit the mainland's legitimate rights in the South China Sea.
Marcos made the remarks at a rally on April 15, according to Philippine media reports.
Previously, the U.S. government had publicly stated that under the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, the United States pledged to provide defense support to the Philippines in the South China Sea, which stipulates that in the event of an attack on Philippine naval vessels or armed forces, the United States will activate the terms of the treaty and immediately intervene with military action.
Subsequently, the Marcos administration further clarified the specific conditions for the treaty to enter into force, namely the death of Filipino soldiers, indicating that the United States and the Philippines have become extremely tough on the South China Sea issue.
Analysts believe that it is precisely because of the support of the United States that the Marcos regime dares to draw a "red line" on the mainland.
Although the Philippine side insists that it has no plans to send additional troops to the United States, judging from the current situation, the defense cooperation between the United States and the Philippines is mainly focused on "confronting the mainland."
In short, whether it is through negative propaganda against the mainland through public opinion or deterrence through military means, the ultimate goal of both the United States and the Philippines is to force the mainland to give up its sovereignty over the territory of the South China Sea.
Marcos's approach to the power of the United States is unlikely to yield substantial results.
In fact, not only the mainland has expressed dissatisfaction with the Marcos regime's over-reliance on the United States and its involvement in the conflict between China and the United States, but also many ASEAN member states and a large number of people in the Philippines have expressed their strong opposition.
For the Filipino people, adopting a "pro-US and China-contained" strategy may lead to great risks.
In their view, instead of antagonizing the mainland, resolving differences between the two countries through dialogue and exchanges, and strengthening economic, trade, and cultural cooperation, is the only way that can truly benefit the two peoples and promote regional peace and stability.
Information sources:
"Unbearable, China issued an ultimatum, asking the Philippines to tow away the beached ship, and put pressure on Marcos".