On April 27, the Philippine Secretary of Defense once again said that he was not aware of the "Gentlemen's Agreement" signed between China and the Philippines.
All the contents of this article are official and reliable sources, and the specific information is detailed in the article.
This result is undoubtedly a negation of the content of the agreement that has been signed, and more importantly, the possible conflict between the two countries is unpredictable.
In addition to denying the gentleman's agreement, he said the agreement was a form of false propaganda.
(The original article was published on China Youth Network on April 29, 2024, on the report "International Sharp Commentary: The Philippines Denies the 'Gentlemen's Agreement' Has No Credibility")
With the inauguration of the new president of the Philippines, China-Philippines relations are also undergoing subtle changes.
Especially since the beginning of this year, the Philippines has repeatedly tested China's bottom line, further worsening the contradictions between the two sides.
What is a gentleman's agreement?
Why is the Philippine government reluctant to comply, and how should China respond?
所谓「君子协定」
In fact, the most important reason why China and the Philippines signed the gentlemen's agreement was the issue of Ren'ai Jiao in the South China Sea.
Twenty-four years ago, a warship called "Sierra Madre" illegally intruded into Second Thomas Shoal, and it has not left since it arrived at Second Thomas Shoal.
Every time they negotiated with the Philippine side, they said that they would evacuate the warship as soon as possible, but there was no evacuation.
On the contrary, they continued to transport various supplies to the beached ships, and continued to strengthen the warships.
This kind of behavior will naturally cause dissatisfaction from all sides, and with the intervention of the US government, China and the Philippines have fallen into a stalemate.
Fortunately, the then president of the Philippines signed a gentleman's agreement in order to maintain the relationship between the two sides.
The main emphasis of the agreement is that the Philippines will no longer transport construction materials on warships, but only daily necessities, and that the Chinese government must be notified in advance of each shipment.
In particular, in the period since then, the Philippine government has not allowed the deployment of additional military personnel to the warship and has not published this matter to the media.
Since the signing of this agreement, the relations between China and the Philippines have gradually eased and become more harmonious.
However, all this has quietly changed after the new Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos took office.
First of all, the Philippines has repeatedly sent warships to trespass into the waters of Ren'ai Jiao, and even tried in vain to replicate the tactics of 24 years ago and once again beached Ren'ai Jiao.
The second is that they have repeatedly used airdrops, ship transportation and other means to transport construction materials to strengthen warships without the consent of the Chinese side.
Such an act undoubtedly touched the scale of the Chinese government, and when the gentlemen's agreement was still hot, they blatantly violated the content of the agreement.
What is even more despicable is that because of the contradiction between the old and new presidents, the new President Marcos not only violated the agreement, but more importantly, he also beat him up.
Claiming that the agreement proposed by China is non-existent, it does not need to be followed.
In fact, this is not the first time Marcos has violated the agreement, and he was able to become president at first, and he is inseparable from former President Duterte.
At the time of the election, in order to gain more support, Marcos took the initiative to seek an alliance with Duterte.
You must know that at that time, President Marcos Sr. was notorious for corruption, and as his successor, there was no way to get more votes.
In particular, Marcos' run for the presidency is Duterte's daughter Sarah, which makes it highly likely that he will not be able to get the presidency.
So in order to increase his leverage in getting presidential votes, he approached Duterte and proposed an alliance.
At that time, Duterte's plan was that Marcos would become president and Sarah would become vice president, both of whom would maintain a friendly attitude towards China.
Sure enough, with the support of the Duterte faction, he received more votes than Sarah and successfully became the latest president of the Philippines.
It is a pity that after Marcos came to power, the friendship between China and the Philippines that he once said became an empty talk.
The attitudes of the old and new parties are very different
On April 3, 2023, the Office of the President of the Philippines announced that the US military will set up four military bases in the territory.
As soon as this news came out, the whole world was in an uproar, especially the four new military bases, three facing Taiwan and one facing the South China Sea.
With the Philippine side's repeated provocative acts at Ren'ai Jiao, the navy has repeatedly warned and restrained them, but it still cannot change their minds.
On the one hand, they were absent from the annual meeting of the Western Pacific Forum, which has been held for the 19th time, and this time it is hosted by China.
Originally, it didn't matter if I was absent from the annual meeting of such a world-class forum once or twice.
But they turned around and took part in the "Shoulder to Shoulder" military exercise jointly organized with the US military, which was of great significance, and one of the exercises was about how to seize the islands.
Many people speculate that this is the "heart of Sima Zhao" that the Philippines wants to occupy Ren'ai Jiao.
The Philippine side sent nearly 20,000 troops to participate in this exercise, which can be said to be a huge scale.
It is precisely because of this exercise that the contradictions between China and the Philippines have once again been triggered, and the Chinese side is also waiting for the final choice of the Philippine side.
I don't know if it is on the big ship of the United States, and the Philippines is no longer limited to sending ships to provoke the Chinese coast guard.
Some time ago, a recording of Marcos was exposed on the Internet, and the recording was a conversation he had privately threatened to start with China.
Perhaps the time has not yet come for the two sides to carry out, although they have blatantly defected to the United States before, the Philippine side still coaxed it, claiming that the recording was synthetic.
But many people understand that this is just an excuse for the Philippine side.
A few days ago, Marcos, who finally stopped pretending, had made public the conditions for the war between the two sides.
That is, if a Philippine ship is operating at Second Thomas Shoal, as long as a Filipino citizen is killed by a Chinese coast guard water cannon, the U.S. military will intervene and directly start a war against China.
As soon as this news came out, everyone turned their attention to China and wanted to see China's attitude.
The Chinese government has never backed down on such a territorial issue.
If the U.S. military really intervenes in the conflict between China and the Philippines, the Chinese side will definitely directly cut off the supply of Philippine warships on Ren'ai Jiao, and at the same time arrest all the Philippine soldiers above.
As for the warship that has occupied Ren'ai Jiao for more than 20 years, China may also choose to bomb the ship.
Because it has been beached for too long, this ship has been connected to the reef on the ground, and only by blowing up the warship can it be completely stripped away.
epilogue
China has always been peace-loving, especially its attitude towards its neighbors, which has always been to uphold the principle that if there is a peaceful solution, it will never use force.
Neither of us would have wanted to go to the last step if it weren't for the intervention of certain countries.
I just hope that the Philippine government can make the right choice and not let things go irreversibly.
If you really insist on going your own way, I am afraid that there will be no "good fruit" to eat.