Trams are really cheap nowadays. Some of the trams with an 800V platform and a range of about 600km have been dried to less than 200,000 yuan. If the price war continues, it may soon run in the direction of the 150,000 yuan range. In addition, the intelligent level of trams is generally higher than that of oil cars. This means that the energy consumption, charging efficiency, battery life, intelligent experience and price of electric vehicles have actually reached a level that users can use.
However, it is only "usable", not "easy". Because although car companies use all kinds of inflammatory remarks and black technology selling points to bring cars in the direction of digital products, they will guide users to think that trams are the best choice, and the future tram life is infinitely better. But I still have to tell you that for the vast majority of users, the essence of the car is not a computer, a mobile karaoke room, or a large game console, but first of all, it should be a means of transportation for commuting. When buying a car, you must not sacrifice the basics.
So what is the most important thing about a vehicle? Obviously, efficiency and convenience. We buy a car first of all to be able to improve and expand our range of activities and save our travel time. Even though the tram can bring us a new experience in many scenarios, it is still lacking in convenience.
If it's just a regular daily commute to the city, the tram is of course very fragrant. But if you are dealing with sudden travel, medium and long distance travel, the tram is often not so convenient. Even if the pure electric range of 600km is actually 80% off, if you run at high speed, the discount is even more powerful. Although there are charging stations in both the city and on the highway, and the trams have fast charging, it takes about ten minutes to get as fast as it is, and it is not as convenient as filling up a tank of gas in a few minutes. For the same distance of hundreds of kilometers, the tram will eventually take much longer than the petrol car.
Some people will say that planning well before traveling, but many times we travel in the hope of being able to go, not to mention when the demand for holiday travel is concentrated, no matter how good the planning will help.
You can go wherever you want, and you can go wherever you want, but for the train, there are still some concerns. This concern is now beginning to be reflected in the sales of electric cars. In the sales of new energy vehicles in the first quarter of this year, the growth of pure electric vehicles has slowed down significantly, and the growth rate of plug-in hybrid range extension has increased significantly, and the era of rapid growth of pure electric vehicles has passed. Some surveys also show that the "regret rate" of users who buy pure electric models has increased significantly, which shows that most pragmatic users have finally begun to realize that the battery life and energy replenishment of pure electric vehicles are still a problem that cannot be completely solved.
In terms of distance, usually the long-distance round-trip within the province is less than 500km, and the inter-provincial round-trip is generally close to the smaller 1000km. In other words, if the tram wants to be as close as possible to the state of going wherever it wants, it must have a real range of about 1,000 km.
The energy density of existing liquid batteries is almost at its peak, and continuing to increase the battery capacity will make the whole vehicle heavier, and the volume is not allowed. Judging from the current technological trend, it is only when solid-state batteries become widespread that the efficiency and convenience of electric vehicles can be realized.
Compared to liquid batteries, solid-state batteries have higher energy density, longer service life, and more reliable safety performance. This means that solid-state batteries can achieve greater capacity with a smaller volume and less weight. If the battery life of the solid-state battery can exceed 1000km, then it can be charged once a month or two, and a single charge can make a round-trip inter-provincial long distance, then the user's range anxiety and energy replenishment rate will be minimized, and it can basically be realized.
In the past few years, some car companies have pushed semi-solid-state batteries. For example, in 2022, NIO ET7 announced that it would be equipped with a 150kWh semi-solid-state battery pack for the first time, with a NEDC range of more than 1,000km. It's just that at that time, the cost of even a semi-solid-state battery was still quite high, and the cost of a battery was about the price of an ET5. Not to mention the cost of an all-solid-state battery.
However, after entering 2024, more and more car companies have begun to popularize solid-state or semi-solid-state batteries.
Not long ago, the Zhiji L6 was pre-sold for its own ultra-fast charging semi-solid-state battery, and the pre-sale price of the 133kWh version was only 330,000 yuan. At the 2024 GAC Technology Day two days ago, GAC unveiled all-solid-state battery technology, which is expected to be installed in Haobo models in 2026. Previously, Toyota, an international manufacturer, also said that it has achieved technological breakthroughs and material solutions to solve the durability of solid-state batteries, which is expected to achieve an electric vehicle range of 1,200 kilometers, and the charging time will be shortened to less than 10 minutes, and the time to get on the car is also expected to be between 2027 and 2028.
Major domestic power battery companies have also put semi-solid-state batteries on the agenda. According to incomplete statistics from the media, more than a dozen power battery companies at home and abroad, including CATL, China Innovation Airlines, Honeycomb Energy, Huineng Technology, Ganfeng Lithium, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, etc., have also been laying out semi-solid-state batteries and clarifying their plans to get on the car.
There are all kinds of signs, semi-solid-state batteries are already on the way, and they will gradually become popular in the next two years. There is also a clear timeline for solid-state batteries.
At present, it is the eve of the popularization of solid-state batteries, and with the combat style of our Chinese manufacturers, once semi-solid-state or solid-state batteries begin to be mass-produced and put on the car, their cost price will soon be knocked down. And now whether it is lithium iron phosphate or ternary lithium, all of them have become no longer fragrant. Trains equipped with semi-solid-state or solid-state batteries are completely different from today's trains. Due to the size and weight advantages of solid-state batteries, the trams of that time will be better than the current trams in terms of shape and energy consumption. It is only then that the tram will be able to truly compete with the petrol car in terms of efficiency and convenience.
Therefore, if you just need it, you have to buy a car now, in fact, the price has dropped to the bottom of the oil car is very fragrant, buy a transition for a few years and then change to the "ultimate form" of the tram, at least these years will not suffer a backstab. No matter how bad it is, buy a cheap tram to play, and after two years, you find that the technology is backward, and you don't feel distressed to replace it.
If you have a car now, but you plan to embrace the future of the tram life, then I advise you to wait another year or two, and wait until the solid-state battery is on the car and the price rolls up before buying an electric car, which will be more comfortable and convenient to use at that time. (Text/Youshi Auto Old Cannon)
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