The development of chip technology is inseparable from the lithography machine, which is the core equipment of all links in the entire chip manufacturing process. If chip technology wants to make further breakthroughs, then high-end lithography machines are inseparable.
However, in 2023, under the influence of the United States, the Dutch ASML has adopted certain restrictions on the export of lithography machines from the mainland. Some of ASML's high-end DUV lithography machines can no longer be shipped to China. At the beginning of 2024, this restriction policy has been further contracted. However, according to sources, even in this scenario, in the first two months of 2024, ASML shipped 32 lithography machines to Chinese mainland, worth 7 billion yuan.
On the measure of export restrictions on lithography machines to China, ASML's CEO Peter Wennink himself does not agree with it. In Peter's view, restricting the export of lithography machines to China will only make China increase its efforts to produce its own lithography machines.
In addition, China is also one of the main markets for the export of Dutch ASML lithography machines. For example, according to ASML's 2023 financial report, ASML's total sales will reach 27.6 billion euros in the entire 2023. China alone accounted for 29 percent of sales, exceeding 6.4 billion euros.
With such a huge market, no businessman will give up easily. Recently, Dutch Prime Minister Rutte was invited to visit China, and during Rutte's visit to China, many people were very concerned about the lithography machine transaction between the Netherlands and China.
Rutte also expressed his views on this issue in an interview, Rutte said: When it comes to the semiconductor industry and ASML, when the Netherlands has to take export control measures, the Dutch side guarantees that this is not intended to target any country.
Bloomberg, an American media in the United States, once pointed out that China is now one of the largest trading partners of the Netherlands, so the Netherlands wants to do its best to maintain a neutral position between China and the United States. And Dutch Prime Minister Rutte's words also show to a certain extent that the Netherlands is very willing to maintain cooperative relations with China.
Perhaps it is for this reason that in the import and export data for the first two months of 2024, the General Administration of Customs released a data showing that China still imported 32 lithography machines from the Netherlands, worth about 1.03 billion US dollars, equivalent to about 7 billion yuan.
Although ASML's high-end DUV lithography machines cannot be exported to China so far, other DUV lithography machines can almost meet some basic needs of customers in Chinese mainland.
Some foreign media claimed: Biden "broke the defense". But no matter how the Biden administration behaves, the Dutch top brass still wants to maintain normal trade with China, after all, this is a big deal for the economic development of the Netherlands.
There have been more than one or two similar incidents, such as the United States wanting to de-sinicize and reduce its dependence on Chinese supply chains. Therefore, they call on American companies to transfer their supply chains away from China, even if some American companies do so and transfer their supply chains in Chinese mainland, they will still emphasize that they attach great importance to the mainland market. For example, Apple, one of the representatives, although it is transferring the industrial chain, Cook has come to China several times.
Even the United States claims to reduce its dependence on China and reduce imports from China. As a result, the U.S. trade deficit will reach $1.06 trillion in 2023, much higher than the previous level. The trade deficit with Mexico has also increased by about 17 percent, and the trade deficit has not decreased, but has shifted.
The Bank for International Settlements also said that since 2021, trade between China and the United States has only become more circuitous, complex and opaque. In other words, trade between the two countries has only become more secrecy rather than really disconnected.
After all, China is now the world's second largest economic market and the world's largest manufacturing country. Whether you want to get rid of the Chinese market or want to get rid of the Chinese supply chain, it is actually very unrealistic.
China now not only has a high level of economic development, but also has a huge population of 1.4 billion. Such a populous country, with extremely strong consumption capacity and consumer demand, is a fatal attraction for any industry.
For example, because Chinese consumers are particularly fond of durian in the past two years, it has directly affected Thailand, Vietnam and other countries to start planting durian in large quantities. For this reason, relevant people in Thailand have even called on Thai farmers: do not only grow a single crop. Vietnam also recently announced data that Binh Phuoc Province in Vietnam will add 27 new durian planting areas, and most of these durians will also be sent to China.
China's supply chain is even more extraordinary in global trade, with our strong manufacturing strength, perfect industrial chain and efficient logistics system, so that many multinational companies and brands around the world have become very dependent on China's supply chain. Our advantages are not something that can be easily replaced by simple cheap labor and land resources in other countries.
But even then, we need to be prepared for both. Regardless of whether ASML will relax export restrictions to China, we will also increase investment in breaking through the technical problems of lithography machines.
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