One of the keys to the development of semiconductor technology is lithography equipment. The lithography machine can even directly affect the accuracy and efficiency of chip manufacturing, and the lithography machine is a very technically difficult and complex mechanical equipment, including more than 30,000 parts, more than 100,000 parts, and the supply chain of the lithography machine involves more than 5,000 companies around the world. At present, the mainland's high-end lithography machines still rely on imports.
For example, in 2023, the Chinese market alone will account for 29% of ASML's annual revenue, and it is also ASML's second largest market. But at the same time, the United States has continued to exert pressure, resulting in restrictions on the export of lithography machines to China by the Dutch ASML. And at the beginning of the new year in 2024, this export restriction has been further tightened.
But fortunately, ASML's financial report for the third quarter of 2023 shows that the lithography machines prepaid by Chinese mainland to ASML have almost been delivered. Even before the export restrictions, ASML had accelerated deliveries of lithography machines to China.
These lithography machines that have been delivered can be temporarily used in our domestic chip manufacturing industry. But just recently, the U.S. government came up with new measures. Recently, according to media reports, the United States intends to continue to put pressure on the Netherlands, and ASML will suspend equipment maintenance services in Chinese mainland in the future.
It is important to know that lithography machines are very complex and highly precise innovative technical equipment, so they need to be used with special care. If something goes wrong, it's very complicated to fix it. Once this move by the United States takes effect, if there is a problem with our domestic lithography machine in the future, there will be no professional personnel to carry out after-sales maintenance.
The risk of such existence is extremely great, and some foreign media even claim that this is the lithography machine that the United States wants to completely "lock" Chinese mainland. However, some speculate that even if such measures were taken, they would not be very effective.
Why? Is there any way we can deal with these limitations?
First of all, after the export restrictions on lithography machines, the mainland has also taken countermeasures, such as controlling the export of rare earth resources. Rare earths are known as industrial "gold" and play an extremely important role in many high-tech fields. In addition, the mainland's rare earth mining, refining and processing technology is also second to none in the world, and it is the world's major rare earth producer, holding a great initiative.
Secondly, in addition to ASML in the Netherlands, there are other lithography machine manufacturers. For example, Nikon from Japan, a few days ago, the domestic media made an interview with Nikon's senior management Morita Masahiro, in which Morita Masahiro has been constantly emphasizing that China is a very large market, and Nikon's customers in the Chinese market have been increasing year after year.
Nikon's senior executive vice president, Tak Cheng Ryo Liang, also said that he had received many inquiries from Chinese customers who wanted to buy lithography machines from Nikon. Nikon has also expressed its willingness to expand its business within the limits of the rules. In response, Nikon intends to launch a new lithography machine that will both meet the ban while also being able to export to China and satisfy Chinese customers.
For example, in 2023, Nikon announced that it would launch an I-line lithography machine, and this model of lithography machine was specially launched for the Chinese market. Later, Nikon had planned to sell a lithography machine to China this year, which would be able to etch wafers made of silicon carbide.
Of course, we can't pin too much hope on Nikon, and at the same time, we need to increase local investment in lithography machine research and development, improve our independent design and innovation capabilities, and reduce our dependence on foreign countries.
In the 90s of the 20th century, China wanted to use shield machines and buy them from abroad, but today China has become the world's largest exporter of shield machines.
Therefore, as long as China is willing to invest more effort and energy in the field of lithography machines, it is only a matter of time before the technical problems of high-end lithography machines are broken through. To this end, we must continue to work hard, and after the emergence of real domestic lithography machines, we can no longer be stuck.
Something like this has happened at many points in history, and the greater the pressure, the greater the potential we can explode. I believe that this time we can still break through the difficulties, and when we completely solve the problem of lithography machine, then at this time in the West, I am afraid that we are really poor in skills, and we will not be able to use any new means.
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