According to surging news reports, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos recently told the media that the Philippines will not provide more military bases to the United States, but if Philippine soldiers die in the South China Sea due to foreign military attacks, then the Philippines will invoke the "US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty". Although the Philippine president did not specify the specific identity of "foreign forces", it is clear that Marcos issued a warning to China, given the repeated confrontations between China and the Philippines over the South China Sea issue.
The Philippine president attaches great importance to the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty because of its special attributes, which are the foundation of the U.S.-Philippines alliance. According to publicly available information, the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty was signed on August 30, 1951, and entered into force on August 27 of the following year. However, since 1951, neither the United States nor the Philippines has proposed to terminate the treaty, so the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty remains in force.
Since it is a mutual defense treaty, the "US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty" naturally also spells out the key points in it. Article V of the Treaty provides that an armed attack on either side of the Contracting Party requires the other Party to take action against a common security threat, including an armed attack on the mainland of either Party, or an armed attack on the island territory under its jurisdiction in the Pacific region, or an armed attack on its armed forces, public vessels or aircraft in the Pacific region. After reading Article 5 of the "US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty", it is not difficult for us to see that if a military conflict breaks out between the Philippines and China over the South China Sea issue, then the Philippines can come up with the "US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty" and ask the US military to directly intervene.
It is understood that this is the first time that the Philippine president has publicly threatened to invoke the "US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty," and a few days ago Marcos also declared that he hopes to hold a dialogue with China on the South China Sea issue in order to reduce maritime frictions. The reason why the Philippine president's attitude towards the South China Sea issue has become so tough is mainly because of several recent events that have excited the Philippines.
First, the leaders of the United States, Japan and the Philippines recently met in the United States, and the three countries issued a joint statement on the South China Sea issue. According to media reports, the topics discussed at the summit of the United States, Japan and the Philippines involve the South China Sea, and the United States and Japan claim to stand with the Philippines on the South China Sea issue, which is enough to show that the farce in the South China Sea of the Philippines is backed by the United States, Japan and other countries. After receiving the "commitments" from the United States and Japan, the Philippines has naturally shown a tougher attitude on the South China Sea issue than before.
Second, the Philippines has recently actively conducted various military exercises with countries outside the region, and these military exercises have undoubtedly given the Philippine authorities the false impression that foreign forces will intervene in the South China Sea issue. Just some time ago, the Philippines gathered the United States, Japan and Australia to conduct the first joint naval exercise in the South China Sea, not far from China's Ren'ai Jiao. In addition, the US-Philippine "Shield 24" joint military exercise led by the US Army's "Joint Pacific Transnational Readiness Center" was also launched on the Philippine island of Luzon, and the US military for the first time pulled an intermediate-range missile unit to the Philippines, which will enable the US military to launch an intermediate-range missile strike against China on Philippine territory for the first time.
In addition, the largest "shoulder-to-shoulder" joint military exercise between the United States and the Philippines will also kick off next week, with more than 17,000 people participating in the military exercise, including more than 11,000 US military troops. It can be said that in just half a month, the Philippines has conducted a number of military exercises with the United States, Japan, Australia and other countries, and the locations of these military exercises have all been chosen in the South China Sea without exception.
Third, the top level of the US military has previously publicly declared that the Philippines can invoke the "US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty" over the South China Sea issue. Just some time ago, the commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Aqui Lino, bluntly said at the Senate debate that if a Philippine soldier is killed in the South China Sea in the future, then the Philippines can invoke Article 5 of the "U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty" to let the U.S. military directly intervene. It can be seen that the US military took the initiative to invoke the "US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty" on the South China Sea issue, and it can be seen that the US military already had the intention of intervening in the South China Sea issue, and the Philippine president could naturally threaten to ask the US military to intervene in public.
It can be seen that the Philippine authorities regard the United States as a backer who can overwhelm China, or choose to directly confront China on the South China Sea issue. In the view of the Philippine authorities, if they want to take advantage of the South China Sea, they need the United States to directly intervene militarily, so that China can make certain compromises and the Philippines can get more benefits. Therefore, we do not rule out that the Philippine authorities will choose to take risks in order to get the US military involved, and let the Philippine military directly counter the Chinese coast guard's rights protection actions. In this process, once the Philippine military personnel are killed, then the Philippine government can "justify" the US military into the field.
Perhaps in the perception of the Philippine authorities, as long as the US military intervenes in the South China Sea, China will make concessions and the Philippines will be able to gain more benefits, which is an important reason why the Philippines dares to continue to provoke in the South China Sea. However, China will not succumb to external pressure, and the PLA is not intimidated, and if the US military intervenes, the PLA will take decisive action to safeguard China's sovereignty in the South China Sea.
Just some time ago, the South China Sea Fleet of the People's Liberation Army released a super-burning video, in which subtitles such as "I'm here to beat you", "Since everyone is here, let's go together", and "I'm not a hero, I just want to beat you" and other subtitles, which directly reflect the current situation in the South China Sea. Judging from the main combat ships, the South China Sea Fleet currently has one aircraft carrier, one 075 amphibious assault ship, four 055 destroyers, 11 052C/D destroyers, two 052B destroyers, one 051B destroyer, 14 054A frigates, and several 093 attack nuclear submarines and 094 strategic missile nuclear submarines, which are fully capable of safeguarding the territory of the South China Sea. Even if U.S. naval and air forces intervene in the South China Sea, the PLA is certain of victory, because the PLA already has sophisticated anti-access/area denial capabilities in the South China Sea, which is China's coastal waters.
Since the Philippine president has threatened to involve the US military in the South China Sea issue, we need to prepare for the worst, achieve a quick solution, never give the opponent any respite, and safeguard China's sovereignty in the South China Sea with absolute strength.
But then again, if Filipino soldiers are killed in the South China Sea, will the US military really intervene?