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First, the reason why the CSRC has issued a series of documents at the present stage attaches special importance to the ability of listed companies to pay dividends is, on the one hand, to gradually guide residents' savings deposits to move to the stock market, so that when bank savings come, the market will have living water, which is conducive to the formation of a bull market; on the other hand, it is also necessary to further prevent the occurrence of financial fraud. Because if a listed company pays large-scale dividends every year, although it means that it does not have a good investment project, it can at least show that its finances are relatively real. Enterprises with financial fraud can make "profits", but they must not make real money. Next to K is Chatfun: Then can you talk about the A-share market that wants to go into a big bull market, what can be done now?
Ma Jinghao: Pay attention to my V-blog, in fact, I said the way on 2023-8-12. The blog post goes like this: Do you want China's stock market to rise year after year? All it takes is a hard and fast rule. It must stipulate how much money the listed company has raised from the shareholders, and how much money must be distributed to the shareholders. Only after the dividends are distributed, you are qualified to sell (reduce) your own stocks! The dividends come from the company's profits, which allows enterprises to do a good job in business with their hearts, otherwise they will never be able to reduce their own stocks and share the hardships with the shareholders! By the way, if you talk about the stock market in the past two days, it is simply a heartbeat. Yesterday I felt that hell was just around the corner, and today I feel that heaven is not far away. This kind of either crazy catharsis or crazy rise, is it unbearable.
Isn't the bloody storm caused by this dividend just because we are afraid that we will be delisted because the dividends do not meet the standards? Yesterday's plunge in the stock market caused the China Securities Regulatory Commission to come out late at night to clarify and make it clear that the excessive reaction is a complete misreading, and the implementation of ST because the dividends do not meet the standards will not lead to delisting. The purpose of this delisting indicator adjustment is to increase efforts to clear out the "zombie shell" and "black sheep", not for "small-cap stocks". In addition, it should be pointed out that ST is not a delisting risk warning (*ST), but is mainly intended to remind investors to pay attention to the company's risks. Did you run away yesterday? If you did, it would really be too wronged! I specified that I would look at today's retaliatory rise and regret yesterday's lights off and eat noodles.
Two
If a listed company has a lot of profits every year and does not pay dividends for a long time, it stands to reason that these retained earnings should continue to increase in value through circular operation in the enterprise, and be reflected through the stock price, and the stock price should rise. On the contrary, if the stock price has been stagnating or even falling, it can basically be judged that the company's profit data is fake, and correspondingly, its assets contain a large amount of "water". Thank God: you can't fake it, you can't fake it. As long as you are careful and responsible for the review, any fraudulent methods can be discovered. Again, the root cause is corruption, and the cost of crime is low.
Ma Jinghao: If the audit is extended to the verification of the bank accounts of downstream customers, problems will definitely be found. To judge the quality of a listed company's profits (high quality, low quality or fraud), in addition to analyzing the cash-to-cash ratio and net-to-cash ratio, you can also pay attention to the dividend financing ratio. According to the comparison of the company's historical accumulated dividends and financing amounts since its listing, that is, through the dividend financing ratio, it can be seen whether a company can continue to generate profits and cash, and whether it is generous to shareholders, rather than an iron rooster. Cash cows like Kweichow Moutai and Haitian Flavor Industry are very dazzling. Objectively speaking, a large proportion of dividends can verify the authenticity of corporate profits. However, cash dividends are not as much as possible, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the listed company is in the growth period or the mature stage, and whether there is a need for investment funds. The greatest significance of continuous dividends of listed companies is not in cash returns, but in proving the authenticity of the performance of listed companies, because performance fraud cannot bring real cash flow.
Three
Now to determine whether a listed company has financial fraud, it is generally not possible to judge from the type of audit opinion of the financial report, if this is the case, then there are basically no financial fraud companies in A-shares. It is a near-open secret that audit opinions are available for purchase. So, if you don't know how to account at all, how do you get rid of companies that are cheating on finance? Here's a simple way to do this: find companies that pay much more dividends to the market than they raise from the market. For example, if a company raises a total of 2 billion yuan from the market after going public, and then pays a cumulative dividend of 8 billion yuan, it keeps giving you money, and this kind of company has no incentive for financial fraud. Of course, it cannot be simply said that there must be financial fraud in companies without dividends, because after many companies go public, the money raised is used for enterprise development, and there is no financial fraud, but there is no large amount of dividends. However, it is necessary to stay away from listed companies that have made huge profits over the years and have been stuck for a long time, as there is a great possibility of financial fraud in such companies. QQ Baiyun Depths: Profits can be numbers, but dividends are real money.
Ma Jinghao: Making real money (not buying "assets" to digest "profits", but earning money that can be spent), not borrowing money (after listing and financing, there is no long-term and short-term borrowing), and paying back money (since there is no good project to continue to create value, increase the dividend ratio) is a good company.
The tradition of China's listed companies is that they are not aggressive in dividends, but companies that commit financial fraud are bound to be even more stingy. Because undistributed profits are formed through the increase in accounts receivable, notes receivable, trading financial assets (fair value changes) and investment real estate (fair value changes), such as accounts receivable, notes receivable, trading financial assets (fair value changes), and investment real estate (fair value changes), these undistributed profits are unreliable and cannot be used to distribute dividends because they are not real money. Therefore, we should not blame these companies for being "iron roosters," because they have no money at all, so what dividends do they get? If they are really embarrassed not to pay dividends for a long time, then it is very likely that they will use the money raised to pay dividends, and this kind of "Ponzi dividends" are not "red" in the real sense.
Xia Wu Xunmei: The secret of undistributed profits of listed companies.
Ma Jinghao: Now everyone should understand why some listed companies have a large amount of undistributed profits, but they have not paid dividends, and they are called iron roosters.
Explain the profound financial logic in concise language, such as the article is approved by you as a sign of encouragement. It is not easy to adhere to the original for a long time, I want to give up many times, persistence is a belief, focus is an attitude, accompany all the way, together with the heavens, thank you.