The yen plummeted, and a dollar could be exchanged for nearly 155 yen, and a yuan could be exchanged for 21-22 yen. Will the yen fall again?
The yen has been falling and falling for the past two years, and recently hit a record low, where one dollar can be converted to nearly 155 yen. This is the lowest point in more than 30 years since 1990, but I am afraid that this is just the beginning, will the yen fall again in the future?
Some people say that the CPI in the United States was as high as 3.5% in March, and inflation still can't be suppressed, so the Fed may not only not cut interest rates this year, but will raise interest rates further. Under the influence of the US interest rate hike and the strength of the US dollar, the yen will continue to fall all the way, and is it possible that in the future, it will become 180 yuan or even 200 yen for one dollar?
To tell the truth, the Japanese government is in a dilemma, and everyone knows that against the backdrop of the US dollar's interest rate hike, if you want the currency to fall sharply, you have to raise interest rates as well. However, Japan has been practicing zero negative interest rates for a long time, which helps to stimulate the Japanese economy, and everyone knows that if you raise the interest rate, it will be a blow to the Japanese economy.
On the other hand, we know that Japanese government bonds account for more than 2.5 times Japan's GDP! In this state, fortunately, Japan has had zero negative interest rates for a long time, so the Japanese government only needs to turn its left hand into its right hand and borrow new debts to pay off old debts. Anyway, you don't have to pay interest, but if you raise Japan's base interest rate by even 0.25 percentage points, then the Japanese government will have to pay a lot of extra interest every year.
Therefore, in the face of the continuous decline of the yen, the Japanese government has done almost nothing for more than two years, and they really dare not raise interest rates. On the other hand, the declining yen also indicates that the Japanese economy is now in an increasingly dangerous situation. Let's not talk about anything else, what household appliances, computers, mobile phones, and Japanese products that have been sold all over the mainland are basically gone.
And Japan's strongest product, the Japanese car, in just a few years in the mainland, its market share has also halved. There is even a lot of discussion that it will take a few years for Japanese cars to completely withdraw from the Chinese market. For Japan, this is really a house leak that happened to rain overnight. We often say that if the yen continues to depreciate like this, then within a few years, the mainland's per capita GDP will catch up with half of Japan's. It will not even be long before the mainland's per capita GDP surpasses that of Japan.
Of course, the continuous decline of the yen is also good for us to travel and shop in Japan. Today, Japan has attracted a large number of European and American tourists, why? The yen has been plummeting, which means that the prices of all commodities are discounted by 8% or 7%. For the Japanese people, their days are really getting harder and harder!