Overnight, spot gold fell slightly, hitting an intraday high of $2,397.79 and a low of $2,362.60 before finally closing at $2,382.47. Gold rose in the European session today and is currently hovering around $2,390.
A-share counterattack across the board!
Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indexes were mixed, with the Nasdaq and the S&P closing down. At the close, the Dow rose 0.17%, the S&P 500 fell 0.21%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.12%.
The trend of U.S. stocks was mainly affected by the hawkish remarks of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Overnight, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at an event with Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem that recent inflation data suggests that it may take longer for the central bank to gain the confidence it needs to cut rates, suggesting that the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates.
In addition, Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson also said on the same day that the Fed is prepared to continue to tighten monetary policy if inflation fails to slow as expected.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is less than a 20% chance of a rate cut of 1 yard in June, with a probability of about 80% of keeping rates unchanged, and a 46.5% chance of a 1 yard cut in September, a 29% chance of keeping rates unchanged, and a 2-yard (50 basis points) rate cut.
In addition, some institutions believe that the Fed may raise interest rates to 8%. This is an important reason for the recent market correction. In anticipation of this, the S&P 500 has already broken a significant downward trend.
Today, for investors, the upcoming release of the Fed's Beige Book is also worth "watching", and its analysis of the US economic outlook and inflation is worth paying attention to.
For U.S. stock investors, one major change in trade settlement is worth paying attention to.
The NYSE said that from May 28, the settlement cycle of U.S. stock trading will change from T+2 to T+1. At present, the U.S. stock market implements the T+0 trading system, but the T+2 settlement and delivery system is implemented, and investors buy a stock and can sell the stock on the same day, but the settlement of the transaction is not completed immediately.
It is also worth mentioning that the yen suffered a sharp fall.
The sharp fall in the yen exchange rate has become difficult to contain. At present, the yen exchange rate continues to fall, falling below the 154 yen mark per dollar, which is the lowest level of the yen against the dollar since June 1990.
Previously, the market believed that the line of defense for foreign exchange intervention was 152 yen per dollar. Therefore, the Japanese government should take decisive action against the speed and magnitude of this depreciation.
However, only Japan's finance minister, Shunichi Suzuki, jumped out and publicly warned that he would take "resolute action" to intervene in the currency market. Fumio Kishida also made a public statement during his visit to the United States: "We hope to take appropriate countermeasures against excessive volatility, and we will not rule out any policy options."
An important reason for the continued depreciation of the yen is the recent strength of the US dollar, as US economic data suggests that the Fed's interest rate cut may be further delayed.
So, is there any impact on the RMB?
There is an impact, but the impact is limited. The vicious depreciation of the yen has been analyzed before, and it will definitely form a trend of "competition and depreciation" of Asian currencies.
In addition, let's take a look at how A-shares are performing today?
Today, A-shares counterattacked across the board, with the three major indexes all rising more than 2%. The trend of large and small indices was differentiated, with the micro-cap stock index rising more than 8%, and more than 1,000 stocks in the whole market rising more than 9%. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.48%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.11%.
Overall, more than 5,100 stocks rose in the whole market, and northbound funds sold a net of 232 million throughout the day.
So, why did A-shares rise sharply today?
First of all, yesterday evening, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued a document saying that the adjustment of the delisting index is aimed at increasing efforts to clear out the "zombie shell" and "black sheep", not for "small-cap stocks". Steady arrangements have been made in terms of standard setting and transition period arrangements, which will not have an impact on the market in the short term. There is a view in the market that "this delisting rule change is mainly for small-cap stocks", which is a pure misreading.
The second is that foreign capital is more than Chinese assets. Morgan Stanley said it raised its earnings forecasts and price targets for PetroChina and CNOOC based on the latest forecasts for crude oil prices amid recent geopolitical tensions.
Finally, the weakening of the Japanese market has allowed some funds to flow back to A-shares. Previously, there was a certain seesaw effect in the stock markets of the two places.
In addition to this, investors need to pay attention to the news on the international situation.
Israel is ready to do it!
On the 16th local time, Israeli military spokesman Hagari said at the Julius military base that Israel would not be "indifferent" after being attacked by Iran, and Iran would not be able to "escape punishment". Israel will respond to Iran at a time and place of its own choosing, in its own way.
According to US intelligence, Israel is considering a small and limited strike on Iranian territory.
In addition, Israel's unfinished anger is vented on Allah and Hamas.
On the Israeli-Lebanese border, in Gaza, fighting has been raging again in recent days. According to the Israeli army's report, the Israeli army's fierce air raid on the 16th killed a number of high-ranking Allah generals.
In Gaza, at least 46 more Palestinians were killed in the 24 hours ending 16 April.
It is also worth mentioning that the United States will impose new sanctions.
On April 16, local time, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that the United States will impose new sanctions on Iran and entities that support Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the coming days.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the focus of the new sanctions is likely to be on restricting Iran's oil exports.
The ancients said: "When the cannon goes off, there are ten thousand taels of gold." Recently, due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the increasingly tense war in the Middle East, the price of gold is still very volatile, especially the international gold price, which has recently hit a record high. In fact, domestic gold is the same, breaking new highs, next, to show you the 20-year list of China's gold price.
Jintou.com: Analysis of gold trend on April 17
Although it has experienced an accelerated rally in the past two months, institutions do not seem to be afraid of high prices for gold. Goldman Sachs recently raised its year-end gold estimate to $2,700 (previously $2,300).
Image source: Jintou.com
From a technical point of view, the market has not seen a shock fall, and the trend is still a pattern of strong shocks, with a slight rebound and upward touch. Positionally, there is some pressure at the 2400 position.
From a trading point of view, under the strong support of the daily level 5 moving average, the market needs to continue to pay attention to the fall below the support before it can form a relatively high entanglement, because it is relatively risky to go short directly. I'm here to just wait and see and not trade during the day.