01
Enterprises go to sea, the choice of the times
With the shift of the domestic macroeconomic growth center, the growth of the entire market cake is also slowing down, and the competition will become more intense, so going out is the only way. Participating in international competition can not only raise the revenue ceiling, but also increase valuations. Drawing on overseas experience, Japanese companies have actively deployed overseas in the "lost 30 years", which has led to the second growth curve of enterprises.
02
Manufacturing to the sea, unique advantages
First, China's manufacturing industry ranks first in the world, with the advantages of a large, long and complete industrial chain; second, China's huge talent pool and continuous growth in R&D investment have prompted the "demographic dividend" to turn into an "engineer dividend". On the whole, China has a unique position in the global industrial chain, with lower costs for high-end talents than developed countries, leading technology compared with developing countries, or promoting the manufacturing industry to further "go overseas".
03
At the aggregate level: Exports remain resilient
Since the second half of 2022, in the face of a complex external environment of sluggish global growth, insufficient demand, and increasing trade frictions, international trade activities have slowed down, and the growth rate of mainland exports has also declined. In 2024, as the global manufacturing PMI enters an upward cycle, China's "new orders PMI" has improved significantly, and the "normalization" of the global foreign trade environment is expected to bring strong support to China's export growth this year.
04
Product structure: mid-to-high-end transformation is gradually emerging
Mechanical and electrical products have always been the basic plate of China's exports, accounting for nearly 60% of the export share. In recent years, the mainland's low-value-added labor-intensive industries have shifted to Southeast Asia, while the resilience of the mid-to-high-end manufacturing field has gradually emerged, and the trade competitive advantage of medium-to-high-end manufacturing categories such as mechanical and electrical products and vehicles, aircraft, communication and transportation equipment has been continuously improved, and the proportion of exports of the "new three" (electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells) has risen rapidly from 1.5% in 2020 to 4.5% in 2023 The logic behind it lies in the upgrading of the domestic industrial structure under the change of the global competition situation and the transformation of the mainland's demographic dividend.
05
Regional structure: the diversified pattern has been strengthened
Since 2018, the structure of the mainland's export market has changed significantly, and the share of the European and American markets in the mainland's total exports has fluctuated and declined; Behind it is the interference of changes in the world economic pattern and trade frictions, and at the same time, the process of industrial transfer of the mainland is accompanied by the joint expansion of trade share with emerging economies such as ASEAN. It is worth noting that ASEAN, as a typical export-oriented economy, is mainly driven by export demand to the United States, so it is still a suitable path to explore structural opportunities in the export chain from the perspective of US inventories.
06
What are the opportunities in the export chain?—— based on the perspective of US replenishment
Combined with the import dependence and inventory situation of the U.S. manufacturing industry, the computer and electronic products, electrical equipment, electrical appliances and components, furniture, textiles and leather industries are expected to usher in structural improvement opportunities driven by the transition to the replenishment stage of the U.S. inventory cycle in the future.
07
What are the opportunities in the export chain?—— based on the "Belt and Road" perspective
Russia, ASEAN and other countries along the "Belt and Road" are still important supports for China to build an export diversification pattern, with the deepening of trade cooperation between China and countries along the route and the upgrading of the mainland's industrial structure in the future, it is expected that high-end manufacturing, infrastructure, green energy and other trade cooperation will be the focus of trade cooperation.
08
What opportunities are available in the export chain ?—— indication of recent export data
Combined with the latest export data, the industries with outstanding export performance in the first quarter of this year mainly include general machinery (manufacturing recovery cycle), furniture and household appliances (post-cycle of U.S. real estate), integrated circuits (semiconductor cycle), and shipping (high prosperity). In addition, in the first quarter, the mainland's exports of high-tech intermediate goods such as electronic information, instrumentation and high-end equipment to the "Belt and Road" countries achieved double-digit growth. In the future, the structural market of the export chain may also be concentrated in industries that benefit from overseas inventory replenishment and mid-to-high-end manufacturing that accelerates going overseas.
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