■China Economic Times reporter Guo Jinhui
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on April 16, the mainland's national economy in the first quarter of 2024 generally continued to rebound and improve since last year, achieving a good start. Experts interviewed by a reporter from the China Economic Times believe that with the accumulation of positive factors, the growth of investment, consumption, import and export indicators is generally stable and rising. In the future, we should continue to strengthen our confidence in China's economy and continue to consolidate the fundamentals of China's economic recovery.
01
Demand is generally stable and rising
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.7 percent year-on-year, the national investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) increased by 4.5 percent year-on-year, 1.5 percentage points faster than that of the previous year, and the total import and export of goods increased by 5.0 percent year-on-year, hitting a new high in six quarters.
It is worth noting that the demand structure of the mainland continues to improve. In the first quarter, domestic demand contributed 85.5 percent to economic growth, of which consumption contributed 73.7 percent, playing an important supporting role in economic growth. Opening-up and high-level opening-up have been further promoted, and the mainland's total imports and exports to the Belt and Road countries have increased by 5.5%.
Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said in response to reporters' questions at a press conference held by the Information Office of the State Council on April 16 that from the perspective of the three major demands, the growth of investment, consumption, and import and export indicators was generally stable and rising. At the same time, he said that there have been positive changes in domestic and foreign demand, which has supported the growth of industrial economy. From the perspective of external demand, as the world economy showed signs of recovery, the mainland's exports increased by 4.9 percent in the first quarter, which was better than expected. The export delivery value of industrial products was negative 2.2% in the fourth quarter of last year, and was positive 0.8% in the first quarter of this year, up 3 percentage points. From the perspective of domestic demand, the added value of the consumer goods manufacturing industry was around 0 last year, and continued to run at a low level, and in the first quarter of this year, it increased by 4.2%, up by more than 4 percentage points.
According to the data, in the first quarter, mainland manufacturing investment increased by 9.9 percent, and after deducting real estate development investment, private investment increased by 7.7 percent. At the same time, the retail sales of services increased by 10.0 percent year-on-year, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 11.6 percent, and the sales of some upgraded goods grew rapidly.
Liu Lifeng, a researcher at the Investment Research Institute of the China Macroeconomic Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the China Economic Times that on the whole, investment in the first quarter achieved a "good start", which was much better than expected. This is inseparable from the efforts of the central government and local governments, which have maintained a focus on policies and continued to increase investment in key areas for the formation and development of new productive forces; at the same time, they have continued to improve the business environment and intensified reform and opening up.
Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the Chinese Society for Policy Sciences, said in an interview with a reporter from the China Economic Times that demand is generally picking up. At the same time, it should also be noted that residents' consumption capacity and confidence need to be further improved, and the foreign trade environment is still very uncertain. In the future, it is necessary to further release the demand potential through policy guidance. For example, we should further mobilize the enthusiasm of private investment, increase investment in innovative fields, and continuously raise the income level of rural residents and low-income groups, and continue to improve their social security, so as to unleash the potential of consumption.
02
The accumulation of positive factors has increased
The Central Economic Work Conference held in December last year and this year's "Report on the Work of the Government" both made comprehensive and systematic arrangements for speeding up the cultivation and development of new productive forces. Judging from the situation in the first quarter of this year, policy measures are achieving positive results. According to the data, in the first quarter, investment in high-tech industries increased by 11.4 percent year-on-year, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over last year; the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 7.5 percent year-on-year, an increase of 2.6 percentage points over the fourth quarter of last year; and the high-tech service industry continued to maintain a rapid growth trend, with the added value of information transmission, software, and information technology services increasing by 13.7 percent, an increase of 2.5 percentage points over the fourth quarter of last year.
"The investment in the first quarter has made a good start for the whole year, laid a good foundation for the whole year, and played a role in boosting investment confidence throughout the year. Liu Lifeng believes that last year's carry-over of treasury bond funds, ultra-long-term treasury bond issuance, local government special bonds and investment in the central budget and other overall cohesion and dislocation arrangements, the formation of the overall joint force of government funds; strengthen planning guidance, enhance project planning capabilities, improve factor guarantees, innovative fund balance methods, for the project to create a strong condition for the early play of benefits; with scientific and technological innovation as the core of the new quality of productivity, for the expansion of effective investment to provide more abundant application scenarios and implementation paths; with the "new three" The rapid growth of exports of emerging industry products has expanded the new space for demand, which is conducive to the formation of a virtuous circle in which consumption, foreign demand and investment promote each other.
Liu Lifeng believes that on the whole, it has become the consensus of the whole society to focus on expanding investment related to new quality productivity, which is gradually filling the gap caused by the decline in real estate investment. By promoting large-scale equipment renewal, cultivating new investment growth points in the fields of industry, transportation, energy, urban construction, culture and tourism, and establishing a more standardized debt financing system while orderly resolving the hidden debts of local governments, these will become the key to future investment.
In an interview with a reporter from the China Economic Times, Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the financial market department of Everbright Bank, said that the steady expansion of the service industry in the first quarter, the rapid growth of manufacturing and infrastructure investment, and the resilience of foreign trade all reflect the gradual weakening of the economic scarring effect and the continuous effect of the policy of expanding domestic demand. From the trend point of view, the confidence of mainland residents and enterprises continues to pick up, and there is still a lot of room for the expansion of domestic demand policies to increase efficiency, and it is expected that the momentum of domestic demand is expected to be further strengthened in the second quarter. "In the next step, the mainland will increase tax and financial support for the real economy, and actively support the construction of key projects, the 'three major projects' in the real estate field, large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods, etc., which will have a more obvious effect on domestic demand. ”
According to the data, the mainland's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.8% in March, returning to the boom range, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the PMI index of large and medium-sized enterprises was above the 50% threshold at the same time. In March, the global manufacturing PMI was 50.6%, which has risen for three consecutive months.
Sheng Laiyun said that at present, the positive factors supporting the mainland's economy to continue to rebound and improve have accumulated. From an external point of view, although the world economy is facing many complicated situations and great uncertainties this year, some leading indicators show that the world economy is picking up. Internally, in order to continue to expand demand, the central government has introduced relevant policies to support equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods, which are all driving forces to continue to strengthen the economic recovery. He also mentioned that the favorable conditions to support consumption are increasing. For example, the policy of supporting the trade-in of consumer goods, building consumer brands and improving consumption conditions in various places will continue to improve the consumer market in the future. In particular, the mainland has a large population and huge market consumption potential, which is the "ballast stone" for China's sustained and stable economic growth.
Su Jian, director of the National Economic Research Center of Peking University, suggested in an interview with a reporter from the China Economic Times that the endogenous driving force of economic growth should be continuously enhanced in the future. For example, it is necessary to further enhance the endogenous driving force for the development of private enterprises and support the continued recovery of private investment. Affected by the impact of the epidemic in recent years, the income level of residents needs to continue to increase, and it is necessary to continue to enhance residents' consumption ability and boost consumer confidence. The world economy is still facing many complex situations, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to changes in the external demand market. These are the directions of future policy efforts.
Image source of this article: photo.com
Chief Producer丨Wang Hui and Che Haigang
Producer丨Li Piguang, Wang Yu, Liu Weimin
Editor-in-Chief丨Mao Jinghui Editor丨Chen Shuhan