On April 16, the "report card" of China's economy in the first quarter of 2024 was announced, and a reporter from China Economic Times interviewed think tank scholars to analyze economic performance, circle economic highlights, analyze development characteristics, and look at the positive changes in China's economy in the first quarter from behind the economic data.
Keywords: social finance
Data: Data released by the People's Bank of China on April 12 showed that the cumulative increase in the scale of social financing in the first quarter of 2024 was 12.93 trillion yuan, 1.61 trillion yuan less than the same period of the previous year. unscramble
Zhou Maohua, macro researcher at the financial market department of Everbright Bank: Statistics from the People's Bank of China show that in the first quarter, the total amount of new social financing in the mainland was 12.93 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.61 trillion yuan from the same period last year, and the scale of social financing in the mainland increased by 8.7% year-on-year at the end of March, down from January to February. In the first quarter, the scale and growth rate of social financing fell compared with the same period last year, mainly because in the first quarter of last year, it actively promoted the "good start" of credit, and overdrafted the credit in the next three quarters; the issuance of loans for some key projects and the issuance of government bonds were reasonably postponed, and the central bank has actively guided the balanced allocation of credit resources since last year to avoid the risk of capital precipitation and arbitrage idling.
However, the social finance credit data in the first quarter of this year was not weak, with 12.93 trillion yuan of new credit in the first quarter, the second highest in the same period in history, and the social finance environment continued to remain moderately loose. As one of the important leading indicators of the economy, social finance reflects the steady expansion of the financing demand of domestic residents and enterprises, the increase in economic activity, and the strengthening momentum of domestic demand. At the same time, as of the end of March, social finance increased by 8.7% year-on-year, higher than the GDP and price target levels.
From the perspective of structure, the social finance structure continues to be optimized. In the first quarter, the balance of RMB loans issued by financial institutions to the real economy accounted for 62.7 percent of the stock of social financing in the same period, 0.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and the net financing of corporate bonds increased by 255 billion yuan year-on-year. It reflects the continuous increase in domestic financial support for the real economy, the steady improvement of the corporate credit environment, the continuous emergence of the effect of macroeconomic policies in the mainland, and the continuous recovery of residents' and enterprises' confidence, indicating a good economic recovery.
From the trend point of view, with the steady recovery of the mainland economy and the support of domestic credit easing policies, loans to the real economy are expected to maintain a steady and moderate growth, with a total scale of about 9 trillion yuan of new government bonds this year, and the growth rate of social financing will help maintain a reasonable range and match GDP and target price levels.
Interview: Sun Zhao
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