Recall that when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine first began, France advocated a diplomatic solution, but now it has suddenly made a sharp turn and has set no restrictions on support for Ukraine, becoming the absolute representative of the hawks. Why is there such a change? What will be the consequences if it does send troops? How exactly did France settle this account for Ukraine?
Part.1
Recently, the Ukrainian army has carried out a large-scale attack on Russian border targets, and the artillery shells that attacked the command center of the Russian army were produced in France and were powerful "hammer" guided bombs.
The AASM-250 "Hammer" bomb weighs 250 kg and can flexibly adjust the trajectory and lock onto the target during the flight, achieving a near-vertical precision strike that detonates instantaneously at enemy positions.
Since 2024, the number of artillery shells supplied by France to Ukraine has soared from 2,000 to 3,000 per month, and French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu said that France will deliver 80,000 rounds of 155mm caliber artillery shells to Ukraine this year, including the most advanced RALEC-F3 artillery shells in service with the army.
Military history expert Sasu:
"The weapons that France is now supporting Ukraine actually make up for the gap in the supply of weapons to Ukraine by the United States. The United States has been hesitant to provide Ukraine with medium-range missiles, fearing that it would hit Russia itself. However, France wants to provide Ukraine with medium-range missiles, which are exactly what Ukraine needs most right now. The equipment provided by France to Ukraine is constantly being upgraded, with more advanced technology and longer range. ”
As Russia's invasion of Ukraine enters its third year, French President Emmanuel Macron has previously advocated dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin and warned allies "not to humiliate Russia." But in the face of the current war situation between the two sides, Macron has not only become an activist in aiding Ukraine with weapons, but also the first NATO leader in Europe to request to send troops to Ukraine against the Russian army.
Wang Shuo, Professor, School of International Relations, Beijing University of Foreign Chinese:
"Now the attitude of the United States towards Ukraine has changed rapidly, and even in the future as the US election approaches, there may be a reversal, which makes Europe and France very worried. The United States can withdraw from supporting Ukraine, but Europe can't, because Russia is at home, and Ukraine is also at home, and this is a matter of European security. France has always wanted to play the role of a European leader, and it wants to show its willingness to lead Europe and its ability to protect Europe, so it wants to send troops to support Ukraine. ”
After Macron's statement, allies such as the United States and Germany have distanced themselves from Macron, emphasizing that they have no such plans to send troops. Despite this, Macron has not changed his position, and on March 9, 2024, Macron publicly stated that France would send troops without reservation if Russian forces occupied the Ukrainian capital Kyiv and Odessa. Later, it made it clear that France would do everything so that Russia "will not win this war."
Military history expert Sasu:
"Behind the two red lines of Kyiv and Odessa are French interests in Ukraine. Once Kyiv is captured, it means that the entire country of Ukraine will change color. In addition, Odessa is the maritime center of Ukraine, and once Odessa is occupied, Ukraine may be closed into a landlocked country. The international shipping lanes of Ukraine on the Black Sea have been interrupted, which France cannot tolerate, because the existence of this sea route means that Ukraine can receive equipment support from other countries as soon as possible. ”
Part.2
Naryshkin, director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, revealed that France is currently preparing a military plan to go to Ukraine, and the first batch of French troops may reach 2,000 people. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova said that in order to participate in the operation in Ukraine, the French Foreign Legion had determined the composition of a battalion-level tactical group of 1,500 people in early March, and "it is expected to be fully combat-ready and deployed to Ukraine in April."
Military history expert Sasu:
"Sending these 2,000 people to Ukraine is just a drop in the bucket for the whole of Ukraine, but it has a strong symbolic meaning. If Russia really fights with this force, does it mean that the ground war between Russia and NATO has begun? If Russia makes an opening in this matter and lets the French in, it will have no way to block this opening and prevent other countries from entering. This should be a test that France is taking. ”
According to the Wall Street Journal, Macron's "troop dispatch theory" reflects his transformation from doves to hawks on the Ukraine issue. What exactly is it that has made Macron so transformed?
The French media "Marianne" website reported that three reports on the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield caused a "sudden change in attitude" of the French president. The first report was last year's autumn Ukrainian counterattack, as a result of which not only heavy losses were not yet achieved. The second report is to discuss the "future gap" between Ukraine and Russia. The third report is that the failure in the Avdeyevka region has caused French observers to "break out in a cold sweat", especially since Russia's use of a large number of gliding bombs has caused heavy casualties on the Ukrainian side, as well as "a very abrupt and unprepared withdrawal of Ukrainian troops", which made Macron realize that the situation has changed.
Wang Shuo, Dean of the Department of Diplomacy, School of International Relations, Beijing University of Foreign Chinese:
He found that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is difficult to resolve in a short period of time, and now it is developing in a direction that is not conducive to Ukraine, and if Russia easily gains the upper hand, it may further aggressively move westward in the future, threatening the security of Europe's borders, which he believes is a major threat and challenge to France and European security. ”
Recently, in response to Macron's recent Russia-related remarks, Putin said that Macron's statement on the Russia-Ukraine conflict was an "emotional" reaction due to the fact that some French-speaking African countries are increasingly turning to Russia, but Putin stressed that Russia did not "pit anyone against France."
Part.3
Regarding Macron's sudden change in temperament, the French media analyzed that the United States should bear half of the responsibility, simply put, the United States forced it out.
In 2024, according to the notice of the U.S. Department of Defense, the current U.S. aid to Ukraine has been exhausted, and there is no hope of replenishment in the short term, and European countries can only use their own strength to aid Ukraine. And Macron has long been quite dissatisfied with the US-led strategy of only handing the knife and not directly confronting it. He believes that long-term confrontation will only serve the interests of the United States, not Europe.
French President Emmanuel Macron:
"If the Americans don't deliver on their promises, we may have to decide to do more, we can't give up on Ukraine, because Ukraine is only 1,500 kilometers away from us, that is to say this is our own security, and this is also the possibility of peace in Europe. ”
Military expert Cao Weidong:
"Russia is an energy power, and after the Nord Stream pipelines were bombed, Europe had no energy, so it had to buy high-priced shale and liquefied oil and gas from the United States, and it would have to lose more money. If the situation is unstable, many companies will have to withdraw from Europe and enter the United States, so the United States will benefit in the end. The longer the Russia-Ukraine conflict drags on, the greater the economic impact will be on them. In the event that Russia wins in the future, Russia's military spearhead will be directed at these European countries, which have now seen the situation clearly. ”
On March 12, the French parliament voted 392 in favor and 99 against, and approved Macron's proposal to send troops to Ukraine if necessary, making France the first country to propose troops and the congress passed.
Wang Shuo, Dean of the Department of Diplomacy, School of International Relations, Beijing University of Foreign Chinese:
"Macron panders to the psychology of the French, who play the role of a great power to maintain European security issues, which is also supported by French public opinion. Now it is more about supporting Macron's statements, and for this preventive deterrence attitude that Macron has issued towards Russia, rather than in actual actions. ”
France is the only nuclear-armed country among the 27 member states of the European Union, and has always had a mature and independent defense industrial system. There are a number of the world's top 100 military enterprises, which can independently develop and produce almost all types of mainstream weapons and equipment, including warships, aircraft, tanks and missiles.
According to statistics, France's total nominal GDP in 2023 will reach 3.03 trillion US dollars, ranking seventh in the world. A part of the French decision-makers believes that the opportunity for France to lead the EU has come.
Wang Shuo, Dean of the Department of Diplomacy, School of International Relations, Beijing University of Foreign Chinese:
"France is indeed one of the few countries in the world that can realize the defense industry system of the whole industry, it can completely manufacture its own from bullets to aircraft carriers, and has independent nuclear forces, and does not completely rely on NATO, which is France's confidence. France has a strong economy, is a nuclear power, has a complete defense industrial system, and is a permanent member of the Security Council, and it can play an important role in international political and economic security. ”
Part.4
Not long ago, in an interview with French television, Zelensky gave a decisive and confident answer to President Macron's hint at the possibility of sending French troops to Ukraine: "Ukraine has demonstrated its ability to defend itself, so France's armed forces do not need to intervene across the border, and it is advisable to stick to the local defense line." ”
Military history expert Sasu:
"At this time, if the troops of some countries are rashly introduced, it may be easy to invite God in the future, and it will be difficult to send God, which is actually what the Ukrainian side is worried about. Ukraine thinks that if you provide me with ammunition, I can keep fighting, and I don't need your troops to go to Ukraine. The reason why France is proposing to send troops to Ukraine is actually more because it is worried that Ukraine will surrender or negotiate peace during the war, which is inconsistent with France's interests. ”
On April 13, local time, Russia's video global live broadcast shot the mercenaries sent by the United Kingdom to the battlefield in Ukraine, one minute at a time, and fell in response. According to the Russian media, this is Russia's best warning to the mercenaries of various countries to participate in the war and France's "theory of sending troops".
Military expert Cao Weidong:
"There are French people among the mercenaries, but he can't represent the French government, Russia has been emphasizing that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is a matter between Russia and Ukraine, if any country lets a large number of mercenaries run to the battlefield of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to help Ukraine to fight Russia, he will definitely be killed if he is caught by Russia, and if he is French, he will negotiate with France, so Russia has always opposed mercenaries directly participating in the battlefield of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. ”
While Russia responded with Operation Thunder to the West sending troops, it also issued a warning to NATO, and Putin said that Russia is already in a state of war and will no longer tolerate Western interference. Alexei Polysuk, a senior official of the Russian Foreign Ministry, made it clear that the risk of war between NATO and Russia will rise sharply if Western troops appear in Ukraine. Russia stressed that any country that sends troops to Ukraine will be targeted and will never be relentless.
Wang Shuo, Professor, School of International Relations, Beijing University of Foreign Chinese:
"France has not consulted Germany in making such a statement. This also shocked the Scholz government, and if it wants to directly oppose it, other countries are of course unwilling, and the interests and security needs of each ally are different. It may be that the Central and Eastern European countries will be more radical, but some of the Nordic or Western European countries will be more conservative, believing that things are far from this and still hoping that the problem can be solved through peace, not through war. ”
U.S. and European aid to Ukraine is slowing down significantly, and whether France's call can lead the whole of Europe to increase military support for Ukraine is indeed a big test.
Producer: Wang Rui
Choreographer: Yi Yan
Editor: Wang Jinjie