In 2013, there was an uproar in China's demographic community. At that time, Professor Zhai Zhenwu, a well-known demographer, published an influential paper, "Analysis of the Demographic Consequences of the Immediate and Comprehensive Liberalization of the Two-Child Policy"
In the article, Professor Zhai boldly predicts that if China fully liberalizes the two-child policy, the birth rate will be as high as 4.5, and the peak population is even expected to exceed 50 million
There is a lot of speculation about what kind of social change this policy will bring about if it is implemented. However, will it really be as Professor Zhai predicted?
Professor Zhai Zhenwu's paper is like a fire, igniting the attention and discussion of the whole society on the two-child policy
He firmly believes that the liberalization of the two-child policy will trigger a "baby boom", which will not only alleviate the aging problem of Chinese society, but also inject new vitality into economic development
However, as the wheels of time roll forward, reality gives a very different answer
At the end of 2023, when people re-examine this issue, they find that China's population has not reached the peak of 50 million predicted by Professor Zhai, but has been declining
The country's population was only 140967 0,000, a decrease of 2.08 million from the end of the previous year. The number of newborns was only 9.02 million, and the fertility rate fell to 0.63%. This series of data undoubtedly gave Professor Zhai's prediction a resounding slap in the face
So, what is the reason for this result? First, Professor Zhai may have been overly optimistic in estimating the fertility intentions of pregnant women
In real life, with the improvement of cultural and educational levels, the acceleration of urbanization and the increasing pressure on women's employment, many families are cautious about having a second child
Second, Professor Zhai equates the results of the Internet survey with actual fertility behavior, apparently ignoring the complexity behind fertility behavior
Finally, he failed to fully take into account the impact of multiple factors such as the aging of Chinese society and the change in fertility concepts.
This "misprediction" storm not only damaged Professor Zhai's reputation in the academic community, but also brought a lot of negative impacts to the entire field of population research
Looking back at the gap between the prediction and reality of the two-child policy, we can't help but ponder: should we consider various factors more carefully and comprehensively in the face of complex social problems?
Can the experts' predictions and judgments really be fully trusted? This turmoil has undoubtedly sounded the alarm bell for us
At the same time, it also allows us to see the gap between academic research and reality. Academic research requires rigorous, scientific methodology and empirical spirit, rather than relying solely on subjective assumptions and one-sided statements
Only in this way can we better understand and grasp the laws of social development and provide a scientific basis for policy formulation
In addition, we should be aware of the importance and urgency of the population issue
Population is the basic resource for a country's development, and its quantity and quality have a direct impact on a country's economic, social and cultural development. Therefore, we must strengthen population research and improve the scientificity and effectiveness of population policies to meet the challenges and opportunities brought about by demographic change