On April 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country in March 2024, and the month-on-month decline in the sales prices of commercial housing in all tiers of cities narrowed slightly and expanded, and the sales prices of commercial housing in the four cities of Jinan, Qingdao, Yantai and Jining, which were included in the statistics in Shandong, decreased month-on-month.
At the same time, the basic situation of the national real estate market from January to March was also released. According to the data, from January to March, the national real estate development investment was 2,208.2 billion yuan, down 9.5 percent year-on-year, and the sales area of newly built commercial buildings was 226.68 million square meters, down 19.4 percent year-on-year, of which the sales area of residential buildings decreased by 23.4 percent. The sales of newly built commercial buildings were 2,135.5 billion yuan, down by 27.6 percent, of which residential sales fell by 30.7 percent.
Judging from the above data, the current recovery of the real estate market is still less than expected, and the sales side continues to be under pressure, but compared with February, the transaction volume of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in March has increased significantly, which is the confirmation of the positive release of various policy effects to promote the healthy development of the real estate industry in the near future.
Looking back on the past year, the real estate market has changed, and people's concept of buying real estate has also changed, but there is still a large demand for rigid and improved housing in the country as a whole, and various favorable policies are still continuing to tap the potential. With the launch of large-scale equipment refreshes and trade-ins of consumer goods across the country, "trade-in" for properties has followed.
On April 1, Henan Zhengzhou Housing Management Bureau and other departments issued the "Zhengzhou City to promote the real estate market "sell the old and buy the new, the old for the new" work plan (trial), plans to complete the second-hand housing in 2024 "sell the old to buy the new, the old for the new" 10,000 units, and in addition to encouraging market transactions, it is also proposed that Zhengzhou Urban Development Group Co., Ltd. (designated by the government as the acquisition body) to purchase second-hand housing, to promote the masses through "selling the old to buy the new, the old for the new" to buy improved new commercial housing; The "trade-in" room ticket distribution ceremony was held, and the first batch of 15 replacement owners immediately received the room tickets made by the staff on site after signing the contract......
In fact, there is a precedent for the recently introduced "trade-in" policy for real estate. According to statistics, since 2023 alone, more than 30 cities across the country have expressed their support for the "trade-in" of real estate. For example, Yancheng, Suzhou, Jiangsu and Shenyang, Liaoning Province and other regions issued "old for new" housing purchase subsidies, and some cities such as Ningbo in Zhejiang Province jointly launched "new purchase" services with developers and real estate brokerage agencies, if the old house is sold within a certain period of time, the new house will be purchased according to the process, and if the old house is not sold, the new house subscription fee will be refunded. However, the "national team" represented by Zhengzhou does not participate in the collection of housing, and Zhengzhou has issued a detailed work plan involving multiple departments, indicating that the policies to support real estate are becoming more and more precise and systematic, which is easy to implement.
From the perspective of market conditions, the potential for improved demand for selling one, buying one, selling old and buying new, and selling small and buying big is still very large, but affected by the downward pressure of the market, groups with needs such as "selling one, selling old, and selling small" generally hold the mentality of "wait and see" or face the pressure of "difficult to sell" the house. The "trade-in" policy of real estate has solved the problems of this group to a certain extent. Industry insiders believe that on the one hand, this move can revitalize second-hand housing, further smooth the chain of first-hand and second-hand housing, and promote the recovery of the real estate market. At the same time, many places have issued plans to raise affordable rental housing, and the acquisition of second-hand housing stock as rental housing may be an important way in the future. Overall, it is expected that more cities may participate in the "trade-in" in the future, promoting the release of demand for improved housing.
In addition to the "trade-in", the recent phased cancellation of the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate in many places is also a hot spot in the market. According to incomplete statistics, since March, more than 15 cities have announced the phased cancellation of the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate from April 1, including both third- and fourth-tier cities, as well as second-tier cities, including Qingdao, Yantai and Jining in Shandong.
The cancellation of the lower limit of the interest rate policy for the first home loan is derived from the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the first housing loan interest rate policy established by the mainland last year: cities where the sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings has declined for three consecutive months on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis can maintain, reduce or cancel the lower limit of the local first home loan interest rate policy in stages. It is understood that after the implementation of the new policy, the interest rate of the first home loan of many banks has generally dropped to about 3.45%, and some banks have reduced the minimum interest rate to 3.25% for lenders with better qualifications.
Not only are commercial loans favorable, but provident fund loans are also ushering in a new round of adjustments. On the afternoon of April 8, the Guangzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center released a message to adjust the maximum amount of personal housing provident fund loans: the maximum amount of loans for one person was increased to 700,000 yuan, and the maximum amount for two or more people was increased to 1.2 million yuan. This is the first time since 2015 that Guangzhou has increased the loan limit of the housing provident fund. On the same day, Suzhou and Shenyang also successively introduced provident fund policies, among which Suzhou launched the "zero deposit and zero withdrawal" provident fund loan product, and Shenyang relaxed the application conditions for "business to business" loans.
Compared with commercial loans, the interest rate of provident fund loans is lower, and the characteristics of meeting the rigid needs of the masses for housing are obvious, and it is also one of the main means to support the development of the real estate market and promote the release of demand in the past two years. According to relevant statistics, since the beginning of this year, about 70 policies related to the provident fund have been introduced across the country, which not only reduces the pressure on the masses to repay loans, but also further improves the efficiency of the use of the provident fund and gives full play to its policy advantages.
Housing is not only a major issue for people's livelihood, but also related to economic development. Looking at the current situation of the real estate market, timely adjustment and optimization of policies is still an urgent need. Whether it is to adjust the amount of provident fund loans or reduce the interest rate of housing loans, its essence is to reduce the cost of buying a house, further meet the demand for rigid and improved housing, and also continue to support and promote housing consumption on the policy side. Looking ahead, the industry generally believes that there is still a lot of room for optimizing property market policies, and the intensity of real estate-related support policies in the second quarter may continue to increase, and the downward trend of supply and demand in the real estate market is expected to ease to a certain extent, but it will still take time for market confidence, expected repair and industry stabilization.
(Popular Daily, Popular News Client Reporter Fang Lei, Intern Qu Conglin)