Recently, the news about Li Ka-shing's seven-fold sale of the house has been on the hot search again.
On the morning of April 6, the "Blue Coast" project jointly developed by Cheung Kong Group and MTR Group was launched for the first time with 422 suites, which triggered a wave of 10,000 people rushing for houses as soon as it opened. It is reported that the Blue Coast project subscribed a total of 28,000 groups in 8 days, oversubscribed by 65 times, and became the current "ticket king" of Hong Kong this year, with an average of 66 people grabbing 1 suite. As of 10 p.m. on the opening day, all 422 units of the project were sold.
Why is Blue Coast so popular? Actually, to put it bluntly, it's because it's too "cheap".
It is understood that the average price of the Blue Coast launched by Cheung Kong Group at a cost of about HK $28,000 per square foot is HK $21,900 per square foot, which is equivalent to selling a house at a 7-80% discount. Industry insiders said that in the past three years, residential projects on the New Territories North Railway Station have been priced at HK$18,000-19,000 per square foot.
Obviously, the situation in Hong Kong is very different from our current market, where people can attract investors by lowering prices at a lower price, and we have been lowering prices for more than two years in a row, and the demand for home buyers seems to be declining.
Taking Yanjiao as an example, it used to be one of the representatives of rising housing prices, but now housing prices are falling, and even the price reduction is larger, and no one cares about it.
Let's take the experience of netizens as an example, in 2017, some netizens bought a 120-square-meter three-bedroom at a high price of 30,000 yuan per square meter in Yanjiao, and in only half a month after starting, the housing price in the community rose by more than 2,000 yuan per square meter.
This is definitely a surprise for people who invest in buying a house for the first time, and even the netizen once thought that the house price in Yanjiao is expected to break through 40,000 yuan and continue to hit a new high.
However, contrary to expectations, the property purchased by the netizen began to decline continuously only half a month after reaching the highest point, and this downward trend has continued until this year, and now, the house price has fallen to about 18,000, reaching halved!
Recently, even some owners in the community sold their houses at a price of less than 18,000 yuan, and some owners could not repay the loans, and the houses could not be reduced in price and quickly closed, so they finally had to face the house being repossessed and auctioned by the bank.
Faced with this situation, many speculators cried and said that they really didn't think that housing prices would fall so hard.
So, behind this change in the property market, what phenomena are worthy of our attention?
First, the birth rate has declined and the rate of urbanization has slowed down
In the past, the urbanization rate of the mainland has achieved the development of the developed countries in the West for nearly a hundred years with more than 20 years of effort, which is also part of the reason why the housing prices in the mainland have soared in the past.
However, in recent years, the mainland has not only faced a slowdown in the pace of urbanization, but also the number of newborns has continued to decline in recent years, which has led to a corresponding weakening of domestic housing demand.
As this trend intensifies, the market will face a more severe oversupply problem in the future, especially in third- and fourth-tier cities, with the intensification of population outflow and the increase in the number of newborns, the phenomenon of oversupply in the housing market will become more and more obvious.
Second, with the introduction of property tax and landlord tax, the cost of holding a property is rising
The sharp decline in house sales in recent years has also led to great financial pressure on those places that have relied too much on land revenue in the past, and more and more people are beginning to worry about the acceleration of property taxes.
In fact, in the past few years, many cities have piloted landlord tax and property tax, which means that the pressure on families and costs of owning multiple homes will also rise.
This costs include not only the annual tax pressure, which is essential, but also the monthly increase in property fees.
Combined with the indispensable monthly payments, this makes the owners of the property even more miserable in the case of reduced income, and some investors even face the risk of the property being auctioned.
Third, the construction of affordable housing and the promotion of the system of equal rights for rental and sales
In addition to the obvious surplus of supply, in recent years, the mainland has also accelerated the construction of affordable housing, including the implementation of the system of equal rights for rent and sale.
This also means that in the future, low- and middle-income groups will not have to empty their families, and they will be able to achieve a sharp increase in housing purchases in cities and towns, and even if they rent a house, they can enjoy the same rights to education, medical care and other rights as buying commercial housing.
Even under this trend, it will become commonplace for young people to rent a house and get married in the future.
Under the combined effect of these factors, the property market has become inevitable, remembering the continuation of the current demographic trend and the change of urbanization, the future real estate market will no longer appear in the general rise of housing prices, let alone the situation of housing prices skyrocketing.
Larger trends will still form. Economists talk about the "three 20%". In other words, only 20% of developers in China will survive, 80% will die, only 20% of cities will be worth investing, and only 20% of real estate will be worth buying.
Therefore, it is concluded that in the future, some medium-sized cities and large cities with good geographical advantages, with the intensification of population inflow, housing prices will maintain a relatively long-term stable state, but for the majority of small and medium-sized cities, the first two years may be the historical peak, only falling, not rising.
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