India is the world's fifth-largest economy, with a steady increase in the global share of GDP, and is catching up with Germany and Japan, and is expected to start a path of rapid growth.
The development of India's secondary industry is on the agenda, which is expected to help the Indian economy open the second growth curve.
To a certain extent, the industrial development path of "cross-industrialization" has also caused problems such as the weak foundation for the development of India's service industry and the long-term low economic growth.
Following Modi's inauguration in 2014 and his second term as prime minister in 2019, Modi put forward the "Make in India 2.0" plan, focusing on the development of ten major manufacturing industries, including advanced chemical batteries, mechanical and electrical products, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, telecommunication networks, textile products and technologies, food manufacturing, solar technology, white goods and special steels.
Economic development is inseparable from energy consumption.
India's primary energy consumption and growth rate are among the highest in the world, but its per capita energy consumption is lower than the world average.
According to information released by S&P Global on February 16, a research report released by the Energy Office under the Federal Ministry of Coal of India on February 15 predicts that India's coal demand will increase to 1.5 billion tons by fiscal 2030 and 2 billion tons by fiscal 2047.
On the demand side
Coal power is the most important source of electricity in India, and the amount of coal power generation in India has grown rapidly in recent years.
From the perspective of the downstream demand structure of India's electricity, the electricity demand of the residential and industrial sectors has increased significantly in recent years.
As of 2021, India's electrification rate has reached 99.57%.
During the period from 02-03FY to FY2020-21, the electricity demand of the residential sector in India increased from 79,694GWh to 339,780GWh, with a CAGR of 7.52%, and the electricity consumption of the residential sector in FY21-22 accounted for 25.80% of the total electricity consumption.
In addition to the increase in electricity demand in the residential sector, with the improvement of India's industrialization level in recent years, during the period from 02-03FY to 20-21FY, the electricity demand of India's industrial sector increased from 159,507GWh to 556,481GWh, with a CAGR of 6.45%, and the proportion of electricity occupied by the industrial sector in 21-22FY reached 42.26%.
In recent years, due to the rapid development of India's industry and the frequent occurrence of high temperature and extreme weather, India's electricity demand has grown rapidly, which has brought a severe test to India's power supply system.
On the supply side
As of the end of 2020, India's proven coal reserves stood at 111.052 billion tons, ranking fifth in the world after the United States, Russia, Australia and China, and the proven reserves accounted for 10.3% of global coal reserves.
From the perspective of reserve-production ratio, as of the end of 2020, India's proven coal mining life was 147 years, compared with the United States, Russia, Germany, Australia and other countries, coal resources are indescribably rich.
From the perspective of coal burial depth, India's coal resources are generally shallow, of which non-coking coal is basically concentrated within 300 meters of coal seams, coking coal is mostly buried within 600 meters, and India's non-coking coal reserves account for nearly 80%;
As a result, most of India's coal production is made up of open-pit coal mines, which account for an average of 95% or more of India's raw coal production.
India's coal self-sufficiency is insufficient, and about one-fifth of the coal (coking coal and non-coking coal, excluding lignite) demand is met by imports, and India's dependence on coking coal imports is significantly higher than that of non-coking coal imports.
In the future, it is difficult to change the tight supply and demand pattern of India's coal, and the competition effect of India's imported coal will be further revealed.
The source structure of India's coal imports is similar to China's, and the high demand for India's coal imports in the future may cause China's coal imports to tighten to a certain extent.
(Summarize related industry chain stocks, not recommended)
Coking coal: Pingmei Co., Ltd., Lu'an Environmental Energy, Huaibei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, etc.;
High elasticity of thermal coal: Yankuang Energy, Jinkong Coal, Guanghui Energy, etc.;
Thermal coal is stable: China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, etc.