【Disk Analysis】
U.S. stocks have fallen nearly 6% in just two weeks, and the external market has seen a significant downward trend, coupled with the intensification of geopolitics, the impact on the financial market is relatively large. The instability of the external situation has triggered gold and copper prices to rise again, but the A-share market has been hit by the new policy, and there has been no previous speculation. The national nine caused a sharp divergence in the market, the index represented by micro-cap stocks fell sharply, but the market capitalization of the larger weighted stocks rose, it is expected that the impact of the policy on the market structure will continue for a period of time, and then return to normal, here to be careful that the index does not fall, and the market of individual stocks plummeted.
Riding bulls and watching bears found that the per capita tourism income of the Qingming holiday increased by 1.1% compared with 2019, which is the first time since 2020 that the per capita tourism income of the previous long holiday exceeded that of 2019, showing that since the beginning of 2023, residents' willingness and ability to consume services are still in the process of moderate recovery. The Qingming holiday is shorter, and it is expected to focus on short- and medium-distance travel, and the subsequent May Day holiday and summer travel period are expected to release more long-distance and international travel demand, tourism and vacation have gradually become a rigid demand, and the scenic spot sector continues to benefit from the dual-track parallel consumption of "emotion + rationality", and the performance has a high degree of certainty, and related stocks are expected to usher in a valuation increase.
The three major indexes collectively opened low, with less than 500 red-disk stocks in the two cities, and the performance of the theme sector was relatively strong, while the performance of micro-cap stocks, shell resources, tourism and other sectors was poor. The ST sector continued to fall sharply at the open, with more than 100 stocks such as *ST Zhongjie, ST Dinglong, ST Tongzhou, *ST Carbon Yuan, and ST Zhongjia falling to the limit. A number of performance pre-increase stocks have been repeatedly active recently, the same as the shares of 3 boards, Rongtai Health, Ganneng shares and other shares of the daily limit, Ganneng shares forecast net profit growth of 3286%-3790% in the first quarter of 2024, Rongtai Health forecast net profit growth of 58%-72% in the first quarter, the same share forecast net profit growth in the first quarter of this year increased by 339%-454%.
In 2023, the dividend rate of many central enterprises has been significantly improved, and the dividend momentum is expected to be strengthened and the dividend rate is expected to be further increased under the policy constraints. The concept of low-altitude economy is partially changed, Jiangsu Jiaotong Science and Technology straight line pulled up to seal the 20CM daily limit, Rice information rose more than 8% and hit a new high on the market, CITIC Haizhi, Shenzhen City Communications, etc., Suzhou will hold a low-altitude economic development promotion conference, it is understood that a series of policy measures will be released at the meeting, unveiling and awarding a number of relevant institutions, focusing on signing a number of fund projects and construction projects, and promoting the application scenarios of Suzhou low-altitude economy, and promoting the high-quality development of Suzhou's low-altitude economy.
Tourism stocks collectively fell sharply, Dalian Shengya, Qujiang Cultural Tourism and other more than 10 shares fell to the limit, Guilin Tourism, Changbai Mountain and other shares fell more than 5%, a total of 27 A-share listed tourism companies released their 2023 annual reports, most of which achieved substantial growth in net profit. Benefiting from the recovery of the industry, overseas listed OTA (online travel) platforms have also achieved good results, and how to grasp the consumption trend of listed travel companies is both a challenge and an opportunity. Local changes in the household appliance sector, Martian 20% daily limit, Rongtai Health, Chunguang Technology have daily limit, "home appliances trade-in and green circulation theme activities" held in Haikou City, Hainan Province, China Household Electrical Appliances Association and other six major associations jointly issued the "promote home appliances trade-in, promote the renewal of consumption cycle" initiative.
Market:
GEM:
【Market Prediction】
The Shanghai Composite Index was dominated by underwater shocks on Tuesday, and blue-chip stocks such as Zhongzitou and home appliances performed strongly, showing obvious signs of rebound, which is also the direction of institutional funds at present. The changes in financial stocks and blue-chip stocks are related to the recent favorable policies, but the small and medium-sized stocks are "too miserable", obviously the index has not fallen, and the external market is fine, and the rebound has been so "cool" for more than a month? Judging from the current decline in small and medium-sized micro stocks, the index is less than 3,300 points, and most people are unable to solve the problem. Next, pay attention to whether the Shanghai Composite Index can stabilize above 3,000 points.
The ChiNext index continued to stabilize at the 60-day line on Tuesday to survive, but the number of small and medium-sized stocks has been the highest since the beginning of this year. The number of stocks on Tuesday exceeded that on Monday, I don't know if there is still the "worst" after that, Brother Niu looked at the self-selected stocks and thought it was "closed", and after a closer look, I found that it was tears that blinded my eyes, they were just falling down one by one, so the numbers "didn't move". If the main funds do not protect the disk, it is only a stock crash now, and then the index will fall. Next, pay attention to whether the GEM index can stabilize above 1750 points.
【Gold Rush Plan】
The promulgation of the new "National Nine Articles" will further consolidate the market's consensus on high-quality leading and high-win assets characterized by high prosperity, high ROE and high dividends, and the establishment of a united front for high-win investment is expected to be accelerated. Combined with the current low valuation of the A-share market, the forward P/E ratio of CSI 300 is 10.1 times, which is still significantly lower than the historical average level of 12.6 times.
The concepts of oil, banking, and coal in the theme sector are the main participating sectors in the net inflow of funds, and the concepts of micro-cap stocks, tourism, and PEEL materials are the sectors with relatively large net outflows. According to the data of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, it is estimated that during the three-day Qingming Festival holiday in 2024, 119 million domestic tourists will travel across the country, an increase of 11.5% over the same period in 2019 on a comparable basis, and domestic tourists will spend 53.95 billion yuan on travel, an increase of 12.7% over the same period in 2019. In terms of inbound and outbound travel, during the three-day Qingming Festival holiday, the number of inbound tourists reached 1.041 million, and the number of outbound tourists reached 992,000, close to the level of the same period in 2019. Japan, Thailand, South Korea and other countries are popular destinations for outbound travel.
In 2024, the volume and price of the tourism market during the Qingming Festival holiday will rise, and the per capita consumption will exceed that of the pre-epidemic level for the first time. The volume and price logic of the tourist attraction sector is firm, the cost side is relatively fixed, the performance ability is strong, the target is scarce, and there is room for improvement in valuation. The resilience of demand for tourism and vacation is expected to be further strengthened. A slight increase in air ticket prices and a decrease in hotel prices will reduce consumers' travel budgets and have a strong role in promoting consumers' travel decisions.
The high popularity of the tourism industry during the "May Day" holiday continues, and the frequent emergence of emerging tourism hotspots + traffic empowerment is expected to promote the high number of tourists. Judging from the "May Day" tourism booking trend, medium and long-term travel and outbound travel are highly popular, and the travel distance and travel time have increased significantly, and the popularity of the "May Day" holiday in popular tourist cities such as Chengdu/Changsha/Xi'an is still in the top ten. The scenic spot has the nature of rigid demand in tourism activities, and the passenger flow performance is eye-catching, and the scenic spot company is mainly based on the income of tickets and cableways, and the price is relatively stable, and it is more rigid in the nature of tourism activities, which belongs to the cost-effective consumption in tourism.
The popularity of outbound tourism continues to rise, and Southeast Asia and Southeast Asia are still the core destinations for outbound tourism. In terms of outbound travel, holiday consumers continue to favor destinations in Southeast and East Asia, which we believe are mainly due to two factors: holiday timing and geopolitics. The popularity of the tourism industry continues to rise during the May Day and subsequent holidays, and the diversification of the choice of tourist destinations has led to the increase in travel distance and time, and the pursuit of good experience and emotional value has maintained the popularity of tourist cities and continuously tapped potential tourist destinations.