[Ekka Auto Ekka Unicorn Show Original]
Recently, Musk suddenly announced a major information through the X platform: "Tesla Robotaxi will be launched on August 8. This refers to their robotaxi service program. The reason why this news was described as "sudden" is that a few hours before this news was released, Musk also personally clarified a false report. Reuters has reported that Tesla has decided to shelve its much-talked-about $25,000 low-cost car project and instead focus on the development of self-driving taxis. In response, Musk responded on the X platform: "This is another fake news. ”
Whether it's a self-driving taxi or a low-cost Tesla car, both projects have been mentioned by Musk for years. Although Musk accused Reuters of false reporting, which may mean that the low-cost car project was not canceled, judging by the specific release date of the Robotaxi project that he clearly announced, it seems to indicate that the self-driving taxi project may be slightly higher priority than low-cost Tesla cars. For Tesla, whose stock price has plummeted this year, can the arrival of Robotaxi reverse investors' confidence? Can Robotaxi save Tesla? Let's talk about it in this issue of "Aika Unicorn Show".
Is the 25,000 yuan Tesla Model 2 really gone?
Economy cars have always been key to boosting sales, and Tesla is no exception in this regard. Musk has always emphasized that Tesla's goal is to make electric vehicles affordable for more consumers, and the expected price is around 25,000 US dollars (about 180,000 yuan). Back in 2018, Musk first proposed the concept of an economy car in a conversation with YouTube personality Marques Brownlee, saying, "We can afford to build a $25,000 car." ”
In recent years, Tesla has also been openly discussing plans to develop a next-generation vehicle platform that is expected to launch two new models: a smaller, more economical electric vehicle, known as the Model 2, and a new vehicle designed for self-driving, what Musk calls "Robotaxi."
In short, the main difference between the two models is whether they are equipped with a steering wheel and footrests. The "Robotaxi" was also mentioned in Musk's biography, which was released in September last year, and the car will be equipped with a steering wheel and footpegs, which, unlike the previous version, will be built on Tesla's new platform. It is understood that the new platform is still in the development stage. In a previous Tesla earnings call, Musk had mentioned that they want to start production "by the end of 2025", but there may be a delay due to the complexity of the manufacturing process.
Tesla also mentioned in its note to shareholders: "We are focusing on launching the next-generation platform as soon as possible and plan to start production at the Gigafactory in Texas." In addition, they said: "This new platform will revolutionize the way cars are made." According to a Reuters report, the news of abandoning the development of an economy car was conveyed to employees at Tesla's all-hands meeting at the end of February, and Musk's instructions were to fully devote themselves to the development of self-driving taxis. Another source also confirmed the abandonment of the economy car development, saying that the new goal is to produce fully self-driving taxis, but their production will be much lower than the previously expected version with a steering wheel and footpegs. This also shows that the Robotaxi is much lower than the legendary Model 2 in terms of sales expectations.
While it's uncertain whether Tesla will abandon the development of economy cars entirely, expectations remain high for low-cost EVs and Robotaxi to be produced on the same platform. Therefore, even if Tesla is currently putting more energy into the Robotaxi project, it does not mean that they will completely abandon the economy car. On Twitter, an account that has been following Tesla for a long time speculated that Tesla may have allocated additional resources only to the Robotaxi project. Musk responded with an "eye" emoji, which the tweet interpreted as Musk's confirmation of this speculation.
Is the 25,000 yuan Tesla Model 2 really gone?
Robotaxi protested
On August 10 last year, after six hours of public discussion, the California Public Utilities Commission voted 3-1 to remove restrictions on the number, driving area, and hours of operation of Waymo and Cruise driverless vehicles. This means that the two companies can now offer paid Robotaxi services around the clock in San Francisco.
For Cruise and Waymo, and for the autonomous driving space as a whole, this decision marks a new era of full commercialization of Robotaxi. In addition, the maximum speed of the Waymo's vehicles in the city was increased to 65 mph (about 104.6 km/h), while the Cruise's top speed was 35 mph (about 56.3 km/h).
However, the subsequent development was unexpected. Just a week after restrictions were lifted, Cruise had several accidents that drew attention and investigation from the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV). The DMV asked Cruise to halve the number of vehicles it operates to no more than 50 vehicles during the day and 150 at night before the results of the survey are announced.
One of the most serious incidents occurred on the night of August 14, when it was reported that two Cruise Robotaxi blocked the ambulance's path, causing an injured person to fail to reach the hospital in time and eventually die. The San Francisco Fire Department's report noted that even minor delays could negatively impact patient outcomes and placed the blame on Robotaxi. Cruise issued a statement refuting the fire department's claims. They said there were two Cruise Robotaxis at the scene of the accident, one of which had left the intersection before the ambulance arrived, and did not obstruct the ambulance's access. TechCrunch, after reviewing the video provided by Cruise, confirmed that the situation on the scene was largely consistent with Cruise's statement.
In addition to this, Cruise has suffered several other accidents. For example, a Robotaxi got stuck on an undried concrete floor and couldn't get out of it on its own, 10 Cruise Robotaxis crashed into an accident near a concert, causing a traffic jam, and another collided with a fire truck on emergency duty. Since opening for full operations on Aug. 10, the San Francisco Fire Department has recorded 12 incidents of Robotaxi interfering with emergency response systems. Department head Jeanine Nicholson expressed her concerns to Forbes, stressing that the Robotaxi parking problem could seriously impact the efficiency of emergency services.
Cruise explained that the accident near the festival was caused by a network problem, as the signal was poor due to the large number of people. This sheds light on the cyber stability issues that autonomous vehicles need to solve. The incidents have also drawn resentment from government officials, who in a proposal submitted in August asking the state to revisit Waymo and Cruise's decision to expand service in San Francisco. Officials are concerned that accidents involving driverless cars could occur more frequently and lead to more serious injuries as services expand.
Phil Koopman, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University, believes that if these companies continue to operate without significantly improving safety, more serious accidents are almost inevitable. Before voting in favor of the expansion, California Public Affairs Commissioner Darcie Houck had already warned Cruise and Waymo that the expansion came with a huge responsibility that they must honor by putting safety first. She also said the California Department of Motor Vehicles and the CPUC have the authority to revoke or modify the licensing requirements of these companies.
Looking back at the development of the Robotaxi industry, it can be divided into three main stages: the early stage of technology investment, the capital boom period and the industry trough period. The process has gone through a series of ups and downs, from the rapid rise of Robotaxi to the trough of facing legal proceedings and accident challenges.
At the peak of Robotaxi, Waymo's valuation soared to $175 billion just two years after its founding, which is almost a quarter of Google's market capitalization. Despite the high enthusiasm for Robotaxi in the capital markets, this sector is still essentially a high-investment, low-return industry. Robotaxi is developing similarly at home and abroad, with slow progress in eliminating safety officers and expanding areas of operation. As a result, domestic L4 autonomous driving companies have begun to shift their strategies from focusing on Robotaxi to providing L2+ intelligent driving solutions for automakers.
Self-driving companies, which were once in the spotlight, are gradually facing an existential crisis. Uber sold its self-driving division, ATG, Argo.ai announced its closure, Cruise's operating license was revoked, and Aptiv sold its stake in Motional. For a while, the entire Robotaxi industry seemed to be overshadowed by frequent accidents, executive departures, and investment cooling. The root cause of these problems lies in the interplay between technical challenges, commercial viability, and policy constraints.
Robotaxi saves Tesla from fire and water?
The announcement of the Robotaxi project has stabilized Tesla's stock price to some extent. Following the Reuters report, Tesla's share price fell rapidly, falling more than 6% earlier. However, after Musk clarified the false report, the decline narrowed somewhat, and it ended up down 3.63% at the close. When it was announced that the Robotaxi project would officially launch on August 8, Tesla's U.S. stock price rose 3.81% in after-hours trading.
Despite this, Tesla's stock price has fallen by 34% this year. The recently released first-quarter production and delivery report fell far short of market expectations and attracted a lot of attention from the market. Tesla hasn't launched a new flagship model for years, and in 2023, in order to stimulate sales, Tesla has lowered the price of its vehicles several times, but this strategy seems to be losing its effect. As a result, Musk pinned his hopes on Robotaxi to save Tesla.
Tesla's decision to enter the market at a time when the Robotaxi industry was experiencing a trough may seem unexpected, but it was actually logical. Although the market is currently in a downturn, this presents an opportunity for Tesla. In the context of mature technology and policy support, Robotaxi has the potential to occupy the majority of the ride-hailing market share. According to a CICC research report, the global Robotaxi market is expected to be worth more than $2 trillion by 2030. At the moment, the Robotaxi industry is like a narrow sewer to the sea, and despite knowing that there is a vast ocean behind it, it is still difficult to break through at the moment. Tesla may be the breakthrough that can blow up obstacles and open up the market. In addition, Robotaxi may bring a short-term boost to Tesla's capital market, as well as long-term stable growth.
From a short-term perspective, Tesla needs Robotaxi to boost its stock price. In fact, this strategy has already paid off. From a long-term perspective, Tesla faces stiff competition in terms of volume and profit margins in its consumer-facing car sales business. In seven of the last eight quarters, Tesla has outpaced sales in production. Tesla's launch of the new Model 3/Y did not fully meet consumer expectations, and mass deliveries of the new Cybertruck will not be until 2025. Especially in the Chinese market, Tesla must always be vigilant against fierce competition from brands such as Xiaomi, Ledao, Zhiji, and Zeekr. As a result, Tesla needs a more innovative and imaginative business model like Robotaxi to maintain its market leadership.
Not long ago, Tesla updated the naming of its Full Self-Driving system FSD from "FSD Beta" to "FSD Supervised", removing the suffix "Beta", or implying that FSD has transitioned from the public beta stage to the supervised commercial operation stage. This may also be a big reliance on Musk's prediction that Tesla will release Robotaxi on August 8.
Full text summary: Tesla's development strategy in the Robotaxi field has always been like a hidden pioneer, as stated in "The Three-Body Problem": "This is only part of the plan". Since 2006, Tesla has been gradually unfolding its grand blueprint on a ten-year cycle. One of the big visions is to make cars generate revenue for owners when they are not in use. Tesla's entry into the Robotaxi market is the climax of the second chapter of the secret grand plan. Over the past decade, Tesla has undoubtedly been a leader in driving vehicle electrification and intelligence. Now, Tesla also has the potential to become a pioneer in the Robotaxi market.
Highlights:
Tesla Model Y upgrade with HW4.0 hardware/new car paint
What exactly is different about Tesla's FSD major update V12?
34.99 yuan/month Tesla's new version of the in-car entertainment service package
Robotaxi saves Tesla from fire and water?