What are the bright spots of the 5.3% economic growth rate in the first quarter?

Text/Chabin

Sheng Lai, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, used four key words to evaluate the economic operation in the first quarter: continuous recovery, steady start, steady progress, and good start.

What are the bright spots behind the 5.3 percent economic growth rate in the first quarter?

Unemployment is falling, and incomes are "outperforming" GDP

In the first quarter, the average surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas nationwide was 5.2 percent, down 0.3 percentage points from the same period last year. In March, the surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.2 percent, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month and the same month last year.

In the first quarter, the per capita disposable income of residents nationwide was 11,539 yuan, a nominal increase of 6.2 percent year-on-year, and a real increase of 6.2 percent after deducting price factors. In terms of permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 15,150 yuan, up by 5.3 percent in nominal terms and 5.3 percent in real terms, while the per capita disposable income of rural residents was 6,596 yuan, up by 7.6 percent in nominal terms and 7.7 percent in real terms.

Sheng Laiyun said in response to questions from the media after the press conference that he was optimistic about China's job market, and that there is no problem with China's total employment at present, and the unemployment rate is declining. At the same time, China's economy is still growing, the cake is still getting bigger, the industry is upgrading, and the development of the service industry is accelerating, which will bring more jobs.

Jin Weigang, deputy dean of the Institute of National System Research of Zhejiang University, said at the "National Forum: Economic Situation Analysis Meeting in the First Quarter of 2024" hosted by China News Service on the 16th that from the overall situation in the first quarter of this year, the job market has made a good start, and the resumption of production by enterprises and the return of migrant workers to work have remained basically stable. Enterprise recruitment and labor job search are still relatively active, especially in the fields of artificial intelligence and big data, and the demand for talents is relatively strong.

Jin Weigang, vice president of the Institute of National System of Zhejiang University, is a through train photo by Zhao Bin

At the same time, the demand for health care, accommodation, catering, cultural tourism and other service industries is growing. From the perspective of enterprises, the recruitment demand of small and micro enterprises has increased significantly, and the demand for technical skills positions is also growing rapidly. Jin Weigang believes that the current situation in the employment field reflects from the side that China's economy has gradually stabilized and rebounded, and the trend of recovery has been further consolidated.

Prices are expected to rebound moderately, and the prices of some agricultural products have reached an inflection point

In the first quarter, the national consumer price index (CPI) was flat year-on-year, and the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.7% year-on-year. In March, the national consumer price rose by 0.1 percent year-on-year and fell by 1.0 percent month-on-month.

In the first quarter, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers nationwide fell by 2.7% year-on-year. Among them, the March fell by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month.

Sheng Laiyun said that from the perspective of future trends, CPI will slowly rise at a low level. On the one hand, the economy continues to improve and aggregate demand is rebounding, which is a very important fundamental factor to support the rebound of CPI.

On the other hand, the prices of some agricultural products have also reached an inflection point in price adjustment, such as the price of live pigs. In addition, the next holiday consumption, including May Day, will continue to drive the recovery of tourism-related travel consumer prices. "There are also some factors that promote the recovery of demand, which will have a certain impact on the recovery of prices. The overall verdict is that prices are expected to recover modestly at the lows. ”

The release of consumption potential has accelerated, and service consumption has grown rapidly

In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods 120327 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. The national online retail sales were 3,308.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.4 percent. In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.1% year-on-year and 0.26% month-on-month. In the first quarter, retail sales of services increased by 10.0% year-on-year.

The data also showed that in the first quarter, the added value of the service industry increased by 5.0% year-on-year. Among them, the added value of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, transportation, warehousing and postal services, accommodation and catering, and wholesale and retail trade increased by 13.7 percent, 10.8 percent, 7.3 percent, 7.3 percent, and 6.0 percent respectively.

Guo Liyan, deputy director of the Economic Research Institute of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, said at the "National Forum: Economic Situation Analysis Meeting in the First Quarter of 2024" held by China News Service that judging from the data of the first quarter, while further consolidating the role of domestic demand in driving economic growth, the support of external demand is also increasing.

Guo Liyan, deputy director of the Economic Research Institute of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, is a through train photo by Zhao Bin

She mentioned that with the increase of per capita income level and the upgrading of the entire consumer demand structure, the proportion of service consumption in the entire consumer expenditure will increase steadily. At present, the potential of consumption is being released at an accelerated pace, but there are also some structural pressures and problems that need to be solved, such as residential consumption, which still has great potential, and needs to be further released through the trade-in of consumer goods and the blocking points of smooth market circulation.

Investment in fixed assets has increased, and the real estate market is still adjusting

In the first quarter, the national investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) 100042 billion yuan, up 4.5 percent year-on-year, 1.5 percentage points faster than that of the previous year, and after deducting investment in real estate development, the national investment in fixed assets increased by 9.3 percent. Among them, real estate development investment fell by 9.5%. The sales area of newly built commercial buildings nationwide was 226.68 million square meters, down 19.4 percent year-on-year, and the sales of newly built commercial buildings were 2,135.5 billion yuan, down 27.6 percent.

In addition, investment in high-tech industries has grown rapidly. Investment in high-tech industries increased by 11.4 percent year-on-year, of which investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services increased by 10.8 percent and 12.7 percent respectively.

Sheng Laiyun said that China's real estate market is still in the process of adjustment. In the first quarter of this year, the decline in some sales indicators of real estate expanded, due to the high base of comparison in the same period last year, and March last year was the "small spring" of real estate sales.

He believes that China's existing stock of housing, less than 90 square meters of houses account for the vast majority, with the improvement of people's living standards and urbanization, the improvement and rigid demand is still large, China still has the conditions to support the healthy development of real estate.

The industrial performance is outstanding, and the high-tech manufacturing industry is growing rapidly

In the first quarter, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1 percent year-on-year. In terms of the three major categories, the added value of the mining industry increased by 1.6 percent, the manufacturing industry increased by 6.7 percent, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 6.9 percent. The added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 7.5 percent, 2.6 percentage points faster than the fourth quarter of last year.

Sheng Laiyun said that industry is indeed a bright spot in the recovery and development of the first quarter, with a total industrial added value growth of 6%, which is also a relatively good figure in the quarter in recent years, an increase of 3.1 percentage points over the first quarter of last year, and 0.8 percentage points faster than the fourth quarter of last year, showing a good trend of industrial economic recovery.

From the trend point of view, Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the financial market department of Everbright Bank, believes that industrial output has maintained steady expansion and the structure has continued to be optimized. This is mainly due to the recovery of domestic industrial market demand, especially the steady expansion of demand for high-tech equipment manufacturing industry, and the continuous improvement of inventory and profitability of the industrial sector, which has promoted the steady recovery of confidence in the development of the industrial sector.

He believes that China is expected to gradually enter the cycle of active replenishment of inventories, and industrial output will expand steadily. The quantity and quality of industrial development are expected to increase steadily due to the renewal of domestic equipment and the trade-in of consumer goods and the active response of the industrial sector to changes in international market demand.

The growth of imports and exports was stable, and the structure continued to be optimized

In the first quarter, the total import and export value of goods was 101693 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. Among them, exports were 5,737.8 billion yuan, up by 4.9 percent, and imports were 4,431.5 billion yuan, up by 5.0 percent. Imports and exports offset each other, with a trade surplus of 1,306.3 billion yuan.

Zhang Yu, director of the International Economic and Trade Research Office of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of Financial and Economic Strategy, said at the "National Forum: Economic Situation Analysis Meeting in the First Quarter of 2024" that China's import and export trade has picked up in the first quarter, and the trend of upgrading the import and export structure is further maintained.

Zhang Yuguo, director of the International Economic and Trade Research Office of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of Financial and Economic Strategy, is a direct train photo by Zhao Bin

For example, in the first quarter, the export of mechanical and electrical products, especially some ship products, grew very fast. Since last year, the "new three" has played an important role in supporting China's exports, and this year, mechanical and electrical products still play an important role in exports. Exports of labor-intensive products also increased significantly in the first quarter. This shows that the processes and processes of labor-intensive product production are adjusting with technological progress.

Zhang Yu also said that China's foreign trade continues to explore emerging markets, the role of private enterprises in the development of foreign trade is becoming more and more prominent, and new forms of trade have gradually become a new support for China's trade.

Source: The country is a through train

Editor: Qin Jing

Editor-in-charge: Wei Xi