In April, the pension adjustment notice or announcement, will the increase be further reduced to 3.6% this year?

The pension adjustment news has landed, and retirees are now more concerned about when the pension adjustment notice will be released, because they can know how much the pension has increased this year. Judging from the past adjustment conventions, for example, in 2021 and 2022, the notices were announced in April, and there is also the possibility of announcing the notice in April this year, but now it is April 13, and the announcement time may be getting closer and closer. So how much is the increase this year? We have seen an online analysis that the pension increase will be further reduced this year, is this true? How much will it rise this year? #今年养老金涨幅会进一步下降吗#

Pensions have risen for 19 consecutive years in the past, but since 2016, the increase has entered a downward channel, with an increase of 6.5% in 2016 and only 3.8% in 2023, a decrease of nearly half. Considering that the aging of the population is accelerating, there has been a continuous negative population growth, and the payment pressure of the social security fund is also increasing, and it is obviously unrealistic to achieve a higher increase.

As you know, the pension increase in 2023 will be 0.2% lower than that in 2022, so will this year's increase be 0.2% lower than last year, reaching 3.6%?

It should be said that there is still this possibility, this year's pension increase within 3.8% is possible, whether it is up 3.5% or 3.6%, or up 3.7%, 3.8% and so on, these are possible.

Of course, there are many good supports for the increase in pensions this year, such as the transfer payment of the central government to the basic pension increased by 10.6%, and then the per capita wage income of residents increased by 7.1%, etc., even if the increase this year is down, it is expected that it will not fall much, so the possibility of rising 3.6% to 3.8% is relatively large.

We assume that this year's pension rose by 3.6%, slightly lower than last year's 0.2%, then you can compare the local pension adjustment plan last year, according to the individual's length of service, pension level and age and other conditions to budget, generally speaking, this year's increase may be a few dollars less than last year.

However, the actual pension increase ratio of different retirees is actually not the same, some retirees pension level is low, the actual increase can be higher, and some retirees pension level is high, the actual increase will be lower, this is because the pension adjustment is not directly according to the pension multiplied by the current year's increase to calculate, but added a fixed amount adjustment, linked adjustment, tilt adjustment, can reflect a certain fairness, resulting in the pension level is lower than the per capita level, can be more beneficial.

Sum up

As the time enters April, the announcement of the pension adjustment notice is getting closer and closer to us, combined with the previous practice, it is not excluded that it will be released in April, and the exact pension increase and other information will be announced. Since in recent years, the pension increase has been in a downward channel, this year's increase is likely to continue to decline, slightly lower than last year's 3.8%, and it is also possible to reach 3.6%. However, there are differences in the actual increase of different retirees, among which retirees with low pension levels can increase higher due to the low base. Of course, it depends on the individual's situation and so on. So, how much do you think it will rise this year?

Coming from: Social Insurance House

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