In the past few days, the situation in the Middle East has been a bit uncontrollable.
Since Israel bombed the Iranian embassy, Iran, for its part, has been emphasizing every day that it will take action to retaliate against Israel. Many people are also speculating whether the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict will escalate into a regional war. Depending on the situation on this side, we must not just look at what the two sides say, but also combine the actions of the two sides.
First of all, on the Iranian side, the big move is not small. There are rumors on the Internet that the Iranian army has entered the territory of Syria and may launch an offensive on the Golan Heights. However, I haven't seen any authoritative media confirm this news, so I won't comment on it.
But some of the information that can be confirmed can also reflect Iran's state of readiness for war.
According to a number of media sources, on the night of the 10th, the Iranian government announced the closure of the airspace near Tehran and the suspension of all flights to Tehran, coupled with the previous announcement by the Iranian Ministry of Defense that its missile forces are ready for war, these actions are enough to attract attention from the outside world.
Experience has also taught us that you can question Iran's guts, but you can't ignore U.S. warnings.
According to a report by Bloomberg 10, U.S. intelligence officials believe that Iran may use "high-precision missiles" to attack the Israeli mainland. And US President Joe Biden also stressed at a press conference that Washington will do everything to protect Israel from Tehran's attack.
It has also been reported that in the past two days, the Israeli army, the US military and the Cyprus Defense Forces have conducted joint military exercises on the island, suspected to be in preparation for a possible Iranian attack.
Now this posture is ready to fly, either it will start tonight, or it still can't be fought.
Let me say what I think, first of all, I think that Israel underestimated Iran's ability to act at the beginning.
Iran is constantly clamoring for retaliation and military preparations, not only for the United States and Israel, but also for the people at home. In fact, many people ignore that before this, the contradictions in Iran were also quite big, the weak economy and the repeated terrorist attacks by the anti-government army, the Iranian people actually complained about the Iranian government, and there were many demonstrations, and even the pro-American faction in Iran has risen.
Now, Israel has openly bombed the Iranian embassy, a proper act of war, and the United States is backing Israel. As for the Iranian people, we must unite and open up to the outside world, and who dares to oppose it. In this way, many of the Iranian government's actions can be justified. It is for this reason that the Iranian government must take a tough stance in order to unite the country. So does this mean that Iran does not want to engage with Israel?
My second point is that the Iranian government may not actually be doomed personally, but the IRGC is already doomed.
Iran does not need to punish Israel by personally ending up, the Iranian government can use the pro-Iranian forces brought out by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, such as the Houthis, Allah, and Shiite militias, to punish Israel.
Now that Israel has bombed the Iranian embassy, Iran can stand on the moral high ground and increase its funding for these armed forces, so that it can continue to launch larger attacks against Israel and the US military in the Middle East. In the end, the United States and Israel will be forced to make concessions, and even change the political landscape in the Middle East.
But even if Iran does not want to fight, it does not mean that there is no possibility of war. Historically, the outbreak of many wars was also caused by the superposition of fuses at the beginning, and the so-called involvement of the whole body was like no one could have expected that an assassination would lead to the outbreak of World War I.