Reporter Lin Chunxia
The "report card" of China's economy for the first quarter was released on April 16. Judging from the leading indicators that have been announced, in the first quarter of this year, China's economy showed a continuous upward trend, and there was little suspense about achieving a "good start".
The positive factors have accumulated and increased, and the economy has rebounded steadily in the first quarter
After the first quarter, how did China's economy perform? Experts interviewed by a reporter from the China Economic Times said that the leading economic indicators that have been released have released a positive signal that China's economy will get off to a good start. External demand is picking up, exports are soaring, the supply side is better than the demand side, the momentum of industry and service industry is increasing, and the effect of fiscal policy and monetary policy is gradually emerging, and the GDP growth rate is expected to be around 5% in the first quarter.
Foreign trade has achieved a "good start", the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) has returned to the expansion range, and transportation and logistics have been "active...... A series of leading indicators have shown a good momentum of development.
According to official data, in the first quarter, the total import and export value of the mainland exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time in the same period in history, reaching 10.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, a new high in six quarters. Vehicle exports remained at a high level, with 1.324 million units being exported, reflecting a 33.2% y/y increase. In March, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index and composite PMI output index were 50.8%, 53.0% and 52.7% respectively, up 1.7, 1.6 and 1.8 percentage points from February, and the three major indices were all in the expansion range. In addition, the logistics industry prosperity index in March was 51.5%, up 4.4 percentage points from the previous month. In particular, the upstream and downstream activities of the supply chain have become active recently, driving the recovery of logistics demand to accelerate, and indicators such as the total business index, new orders index, and equipment utilization index have rebounded.
Xu Hongcai, executive director of the Chinese Society for Policy Sciences and deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee, told the China Economic Times that in the first quarter, the mainland's economy continued the momentum of steady recovery last year, the endogenous growth momentum gradually increased, the economic structure continued to be optimized, and the role of new quality productivity was more obvious.
"Investment, consumption, and foreign trade have all grown steadily. Xu Hongcai analysis said that in the first two months of this year, the national fixed asset investment increased by 4.2% year-on-year, with the release of policy effects, investment growth or continue to rise, is expected to average 4.2%-4.3% investment growth in the first quarter. Consumption is back to normal. In the first two months of this year, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 5.5%, and in March it may fall back to about 5.3%. Foreign trade picked up, and the average growth rate of imports and exports reached 5%. The manufacturing PMI exceeded the 50% line for the first time this year, indicating that the business situation of small and medium-sized enterprises has improved significantly, and market demand is picking up. These leading indicators are positive, indicating that the potential of economic growth is being released.
"Judging from some leading indicators in the first quarter, the economic recovery is more obvious. Zhou Tianyong, director of the National Economic Engineering Laboratory of Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, told the China Economic Times that in addition to the high exports, the production and sales of automobiles in the first quarter were booming, with production and sales of 6.606 million and 6.72 million respectively, an increase of 6.4% and 10.6% year-on-year respectively, achieving a "good start". He said that as a pillar industry of the national economy, the automobile industry plays an important role in stabilizing growth, stabilizing employment and stimulating consumption. In addition, from January to February, the industrial added value increased by 7.0% year-on-year, and the power generation above designated size also increased year-on-year.
Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, analyzed the characteristics of the recent economy to the reporter of China Economic Times. He said that the business activity index of the service industry in March was 52.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, rebounding for three consecutive months and stronger than seasonal. The production and operation of the producer service industry is relatively active. The business activity index of the construction industry was 56.2%, up 2.7 percentage points from the previous month, roughly the same as the season. The pace of resumption of infrastructure projects is slightly better than that of real estate projects, but both are slower than the same period in previous years. The manufacturing PMI rebounded by 1.7 percentage points from February to 50.8%, which was stronger than seasonal, and the five major indicators all improved. On the whole, the productivity of the service industry is better than the living performance, the infrastructure of the construction industry is better than the real estate, the supply and demand of the manufacturing industry are booming, and the purchase price is stronger than the ex-factory price.
"Overall, the economic recovery momentum at the beginning of the year is stronger than expected, and GDP growth is expected to reach about 5% in the first quarter. Wen Bin said.
To ensure steady growth throughout the year, it is still necessary to continue to exert policy "combination punches".
In the first quarter, China's economy is likely to usher in a "good start", which will lay a good foundation for steady economic growth throughout the year.
However, the interviewed experts pointed out that it is still necessary to see that aggregate demand and endogenous economic growth momentum are still facing problems such as insufficient, and the next step is to continue to exert a number of policies to ensure sustained and stable economic growth throughout the year.
"Although the economy is picking up at present, the problem of insufficient aggregate demand cannot be ignored, mainly reflected in prices. Xu Hongcai said that although the CPI in the first quarter was somewhat positive, the decline in the prices of food, fruits and vegetables, especially pork, affected the CPI. In addition, PPI is growing negatively every month, which is contrary to the trend of rising global commodity prices, indicating that insufficient demand or overcapacity remains. In the next step, monetary policy and fiscal policy must continue to exert force, and there is still a lot of room for RRR and interest rate cuts. In addition, it is necessary to put in place the financial funds budgeted at the beginning of the year as soon as possible, so that the project can be implemented as soon as possible. At the same time, we will optimize the business environment, expand opening up to the outside world, and encourage innovation.
Zhou Tianyong believes that the month-on-month growth rate of CPI in March turned from positive to negative, indicating that residents' ability to pay is still insufficient, and it is necessary to pay attention to it. Consumption is becoming increasingly important in driving domestic economic growth. In his view, in order to stabilize the economy throughout the year, in addition to the continuous efforts of fiscal and monetary policies, it is also necessary to increase the relaxation, liberalization, and revitalization of many aspects, reduce the examination and approval links, optimize the business environment, and protect the property rights of private enterprises.
Wen Bin believes that from an external point of view, the momentum of global economic recovery has recovered, and the external demand faced by the mainland economy has shown signs of improvement, but geopolitical uncertainty is still high. Internally, the economy performed better than expected in the first quarter. Consumption showed a recovery trend, and residents' willingness to consume has been boosted. During the Spring Festival, the consumption of various living services exceeded expectations, infrastructure and manufacturing investment remained stable, and the manufacturing PMI reached the highest level in a year.
At the same time, Wen Bin pointed out that some shortcomings in the process of economic recovery are still worthy of attention.
First, infrastructure investment is still slow. The construction industry sentiment index rebounded in March, but not beyond seasonality. At present, the economy has improved and the urgency of infrastructure construction has declined, but it is still necessary to do a good job in making up for shortcomings and supporting the economy.
Second, the real estate market needs to be boosted. The performance of the real estate market is still the key to whether the economy can stabilize and recover, and the relevant policies should be implemented in detail in the next stage.
Third, the employment situation needs to be improved. The employment index of the manufacturing industry rebounded in March, but the employment index of the service industry and the construction industry fell month-on-month, and the overall employment pressure still cannot be ignored. In the next stage, we should further optimize the market-oriented, rule-of-law and international business environment, and continue to boost the confidence of foreign-funded enterprises and the private economy, so as to provide more jobs.
For the direction of the corresponding policy adjustment, Wen Bin believes that in the face of a relatively complex economic situation, the importance of counter-cyclical adjustment of monetary policy has increased, which also means that the follow-up monetary policy orientation is still loose, and it is expected that financial support for the real economy will be more sustainable this year. The prudent monetary policy is precise and effective, there is still room for RRR and interest rate cuts, and structural monetary policy tools are strengthened. The proactive fiscal policy should be moderately strengthened, and the issuance of 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and local bonds should be accelerated, which will form a strong support for the growth rate of social finance.