How effective is Iran's large-scale strike? Israel's claim that 99 percent of the missiles and drones launched by Iran have been intercepted, is very much in the style of Zelensky. However, the eyes of people all over the world are clear, and a large number of videos show that many Iranian missiles have easily broken through the defenses of the "Iron Dome" and "Arrow" missiles, hitting the target, and even showing that two missiles have hit the same target one after another, of course, this can also be said to be "the missile was successfully intercepted by a ground target".
Foreign media said that many of them belonged to hypersonic missiles, which were completely beyond the interception capability of the Israeli army, and at least 7 hypersonic missiles hit Nevatim Air Base in the Negev Desert, and another Ramon Air Base was also hit by multiple missiles.
A widely circulated video shows what appears to be a sudden acceleration of Iranian missiles at the end of their range, standing out in a large field of light from the explosion of the interceptor missile, and then bursting into a huge flame. This ability to accelerate abruptly at the end has never been seen before, and it is the first way to make the end maneuver public.
Iran's audacity to attack Israel itself is now unique among sovereign countries in the Middle East, and it has played a significant role in enhancing Iran's prestige in the Arab world. Other countries dare not speak out against Israel, let alone bomb it with missiles. Moreover, the tactics used by Iran are also commendable, fully drawing on the experience of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
In view of Israel's large number of "Iron Dome" and "Arrow 1/2/3" interceptor missiles, plus the United States and Britain and other continents to help, it is not easy for drones and missiles to penetrate the defense, if a swarm of swarms are fought, it is likely to be like Hamas and Allah rockets, thunder and rain.
But Iran, after all, has a lot of experience in the struggle, and they obviously planned the timing of the launch of various weapons, and the first to arrive in Israel was the slower-flying but long-range "small motorcycle" Shahed-136 drone. This kind of drone with wings like a big triangle is very cheap, using the same engine as a motorcycle, it is said that the cost of a drone is only a few thousand dollars, that is, thirty or forty thousand yuan, and there are even exaggerated claims that it is 20,000 yuan, which is simply outrageous, but the range can reach 1000 kilometers.
In the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia once imported a large number of "Iranian motorcycles", and under the guidance of the GLONASS global navigation/positioning system, it attacked deep targets in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, which caused great trouble to the Ukrainian side. Now that Iran has concocted the same method, it has first launched a large number of Shahed-136s, and these drones are flying towards Israel like locusts, and it is impossible for the Israeli army not to react, because this kind of drone carries a 50-kilogram warhead, which is more powerful than the explosion of a large-caliber artillery shell, so the Israeli side has no choice but to intercept as much as possible.
At present, the Israeli army has used the "Iron Dome" air defense system, and the effect is still good, hitting a large number of "small motorcycles", but the cost of one Iron Dome missile is as high as 35,000 US dollars, equivalent to more than 200,000 yuan. Moreover, in order to ensure the hit rate, intercepting a drone often requires 2 rounds of Iron Dome, and the blood of the party is lost, and the heart is dripping blood.
What is even worse is that the "small motorcycle" consumes a large amount of Israeli interceptor missiles, and in fact plays a role in opening the way; even if it does not hit any target, if it can consume hundreds or thousands of rounds of Israeli interceptor missiles, it will already be quite successful.
Iran's cruise and ballistic missiles came into play when a large number of drones slammed into Israeli air defenses to attract the attention of the other side. According to the Israeli side, Iran has launched more than 150 missiles of various types, and its speed and penetration capabilities far exceed those of drones. With the "Iron Dome" being consumed by UAVs in large quantities, it is no longer possible to rely on it to stop these more than 150 missiles. The Israeli military used air force warplanes to launch air-to-air missiles to blow up low-flying Iranian cruise missiles, and also released related videos to show off. However, this method of warfare cannot deal with Iran's killer weapon -- ballistic missiles.
Iranian ballistic missiles have been developed for many years and are combat-tested, with a wide range of models from short to medium range. Missiles launched from Iran soil need to have a range of more than 1,300 kilometers to reach Israel, and Iran's medium-range missiles include the 2,500-kilometer "Mudstone", the 2,000-kilometer "Castle Breaker", and the 1,400-kilometer "Qasim", named in honor of Soleimani.
These medium-range missiles are large enough to fly out of the atmosphere during flight, where the warhead separates from the body and then hits the target at extremely high speeds. Fuel tanks for missiles that had been separated and abandoned were found in various parts of Jordan and Israel. The Iron Dome is okay for attacking rockets, unmanned aerial vehicles, and cruise missiles, but it will be out of action against medium-range missile warheads that come at high speed, and the Israeli military must come up with a higher-end and more expensive "arrow" anti-missile interception system.
In an online video, a bizarre spiral point of light appeared, which was interpreted as the "Arrow 3" interceptor missile hitting the incoming warhead outside the atmosphere, and only in this case can the spiral effect appear.
However, under such extremely high-speed conditions, the success rate of such a "needle-to-wheat" type of interception cannot reach 99 percent, and a large number of ballistic missiles will inevitably slip through the net, so there will be a situation in which many missiles have successfully penetrated defenses. In this large wave of ballistic missiles, Iran has also mixed some hypersonic missiles, which is the core force of this attack. The scene of the sudden acceleration at the end is probably the work of this missile.
Iran's hypersonic missile, which was made public only last year, is known as "Fatah" or "Conqueror", with a range of 1,400 kilometers and a speed of up to Mach 15, that is, it can fly about 18,000 kilometers per hour, taking into account the acceleration process and ballistic curve during launch, the missile can hit the target within 400 seconds, leaving Israel with little reaction time.
The most critical thing is that this missile uses a double-cone warhead, which is characteristic of entry-level hypersonic weapons. It is said that it is an entry-level because the shape of the warhead is not a waverider, the ability to maneuver is limited, and at the same time there is no air intake, so it is impossible to use a scramjet engine.
However, this kind of aerodynamic warhead does not fly out of the parabola like traditional ballistic missiles, and can make maneuvers in the form of "drifting" in the upper atmosphere, and the highest point of the ballistic trajectory is also relatively low, and the radar of the Israeli military interception system is limited by the curvature of the earth, and it is already late when it is discovered.
Although the missile is not capable of large-scale lateral maneuvers like the high-end "wave-riding" warhead, nor is it like the Russian "Zircon" that can penetrate the defense at an altitude of no more than 8,000 meters, but even this is enough for the "Arrow" anti-missile system to drink a pot. In particular, if the missile can suddenly accelerate at the end of the trajectory, the Israeli military can only stare dryly.
Judging from the actual combat effect, Iran's primary version of the hypersonic weapon completely ignored the interception of the Israeli air defense system, swaggered through the sky over the fireworks-like theater of operations, and hit the target. The Israeli army admitted that the airbase had been hit by missiles, but said that only some taxiways had been damaged, the damage was "minor", and the airfield had resumed operations.
However, judging from the satellite photos, there are obvious traces of the Israeli army being hit on the airfield in the Negev desert, and it remains to be verified whether the actual losses are as the Israeli army says. In addition, this time Iran actually stopped attacking Israel, and did not want to make things too big.
This is just like when Iran launched a large number of missiles to attack the US military base in order to avenge the killing of Soleimani, the battle was very large, and it did hit the base, but it was ventilated in advance, and the missiles were also hit in inconsequential places, and the US military was just a concussion.
This time too, Iran did not carry out indiscriminate strikes on densely populated areas of Israel, which would inevitably result in huge casualties. The missiles were aimed at military targets only, and most likely only at the runways of military airfields, in order to reduce Israeli casualties. So that both sides have steps down.
As Iran expected, only one person was injured in Israel, although the Israeli side was very tough at the beginning, saying that it would retaliate, but in the end it gave up the retaliation at the request of Biden, which looks more like a big drama performed by Iran, the United States and Israel.
In any case, the performance of Iran's hypersonic bombs is still very impressive, and the anti-missile system built by the West at a huge cost is basically ineffective in front of it, which also proves the correctness of the development route of hypersonic weapons, and all parties will pay more attention to this weapon in the future.