After the United States, Japan, and the Philippines sent unprecedented wrong and dangerous signals to China, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz led a huge political and business delegation to visit China, and stayed for three days.
A few days ago, the leaders of the United States, Japan, and the Philippines gathered in the United States, and the three sides set up a new small circle to contain China in the Asia-Pacific region, especially in the South China Sea. Biden was about to step down and finally made progress in the Indo-Pacific strategy, but before he could rejoice, there were discordant voices from his Atlantic allies.
On the 14th, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited China, and Germany's visit to China lineup was luxurious, not only three cabinet ministers in charge of environment, agriculture and transportation, but also more than 10 executives of German automobile and chemical companies such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and BASF. They stayed for three days, and they will travel to Chongqing, Shanghai and Beijing in three days, which shows that Germany attaches great importance to the trade relationship between the two countries, and also sets a new record for the current German government.
This is Scholz's second visit to China since taking office, the first being in November 2022. Comparing these two times, it can be seen that Germany's attitude towards China has taken a clear turn. Last time, he stayed in China for just one day. Since Scholz came to power, Germany has failed to continue the political legacy of the Merkel government and has deviated from its line toward China. Germany and the United States are getting closer and closer, and Scholz echoes the United States, agreeing that it should get rid of the so-called "dependence" on China, reorganize the supply chain and industrial chain, and also throw out the remark that "you can't put all your eggs in the same basket".
It was in this diplomatic context that Scholz visited China for the first time since taking office, when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine was raging, and the entire Western public opinion towards China was very hostile, so Scholz was questioned by all sides, and after that visit, although Sino-German relations were repaired, they still failed to return to the peak of the Merkel period due to various factors.
Over the past year or so, differences and frictions between China and the EU on "decoupling" and countervailing issues have intensified, and Germany has also issued its first "China Strategy" document, claiming that China is a so-called "systemic competitor" and proposing to "de-risk" China's economy. But the world is changing, and Scholz and Europe as a whole are realizing that a bigger crisis is looming than the "China threat" that chases after the wind.
The Wall Street Journal recently published an article saying that because former President Trump is too popular in the polls and is likely to defeat Biden in the 2024 U.S. election, European countries can't help but begin to reevaluate their China and U.S. policies. During the Trump administration, the relationship between the United States and Europe was far from being as "in love with each other" as it is now, and it could even be said that it was a sword and a sword. Unlike China and the United States, Europe and China do not have geopolitical contradictions, nor do they have the "deep hatred" that the United States imagined, on the contrary, China and Europe still have close economic ties.
Germany, as China's all-round strategic partner, has the clearest understanding of this point, so Scholz has the answer to why he attaches so much importance to China's trip. According to the Wall Street Journal, this is likely to be a sign that Europe is moving closer to China again. Frankly, this concern is not unreasonable, and on April 1, French Foreign Minister Céjour also visited China, and he said on the spot that he would not seek "decoupling" trade with China, which, like Germany, also expects bilateral trade with China to be "healthy and sustainable".
The Netherlands has also made a different choice. Recently, the United States has tried to further tighten restrictions on China in the field of chip semiconductors, and Germany and the Netherlands have suffered a new round of pressure. The Netherlands has been asked not to provide repair services to China. However, not only did Germany not explicitly express its support for the US proposal, but the Netherlands has also been resisting US pressure.
During his recent visit to China, Dutch Prime Minister Rutte pledged to ensure that restrictions are not just targeted at every country. Bloomberg reported on the 13th that the Netherlands refused to sanction China, and so far it is still buying time, waiting to see who will win the US election and what impact the results will have on the restrictive measures.
Europe has realized that there is no fundamental conflict of interest between China and Europe, and there are no geostrategic contradictions. Guided by the recognition that China's rise is also an opportunity rather than a "risk" for Europe, China-EU relations are expected to get back on track, and I hope that the prediction of the Wall Street Journal will come true, and Scholz's visit will bring food for thought to other European countries and open a new chapter in China-EU relations.