Attention! Today's market is unusual! Blue chips are dancing, the micro-market is plummeting, and the market direction has changed greatly, what is this signal? Dark Horse's exclusive perspective, give you a reliable analysis!
The new version of the "National Nine Articles" is of great significance and has a clear orientation, will it detonate a new round of value investment?
The market has staged two days of ice and fire, CSI A50, SSE 50, CSI 300 and other weighted value stocks have risen sharply, and the micro-cap stock index has plummeted.
The wonderful sharing was delivered on time, and friends and friends took what they needed to read it carefully.
Perspective the stock market puzzle, insight into the trend of the industry, grasp the investment opportunities, be a person who understands the stock market, and make a clear investment!
1. Market trends and hot topics
1. The new version of the "National Nine Articles", have you really read it?
Compared with the 2004 version and the 2014 version of the "National Nine Articles", the 2024 version of the "National Nine Articles" has many new highlights: it is particularly important to improve the investment value of A-shares, strengthen the construction of the investment side, enhance endogenous stability, and promote the long-term healthy growth of the stock market. Promoting the healthy growth of the stock market is an important part of the implementation of the strategy of becoming a financial power. In my opinion, the new version of the "Nine Articles" is nothing more than a guiding document to guide A-shares to a long-term, slow-, and healthy bull, and the policy guidance is very clear and of great significance. Looking forward to the future, under the strong support and guidance of the policy, A-shares have great hope to get out of the long-term and slow cattle and healthy cattle, gradually take off the hat of the speculative market, and build into a real investment market.
Today, the micro-cap stock index plummeted nearly 9%, and the value blue-chip indices such as CSI A50 and CSI 300 rose by more than 2%. Excessive speculation that disrupts the normal order of the market, such as "speculating on small speculation and new speculation on shells", will be gradually corrected.
A-shares, which have been adjusted for more than 3 years, the overall valuation of the market has been pressed to a historical low and a large bottom area, many big blue chips and big white horses have plummeted by 780%, and the value of medium and long-term investment is very prominent, coupled with the guidance of the policy, I think 2024 will become the starting year of a new round of value investment.
2. What is the signal that big finance and liquor are trying their best to protect the disk?
Today's disc is both hot and cold:
On the one hand, the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 rose sharply, mainly driven by the sharp rise in banks, securities, insurance, and liquor.
On the other hand, the general adjustment of CSI 1000, CNI 2000 and micro-cap stocks is mainly caused by the release of individual stock risks.
The former is not only the embodiment of the main force in responding to the value investment orientation of the "National Nine Articles", but also the performance of maintaining market stability. The sudden change in the situation in the Middle East over the weekend will inevitably cause market concerns. Today, the main force took decisive action to maintain the stability index to avoid excessive panic in the market due to the events in the Middle East, which has a positive effect on stabilizing market confidence.
The sharp decline in the micro-cap index is a specific manifestation of the main short-term risk aversion and rebalancing and stock swap trends, and it is necessary to be sensitive to this trend. After quantitative trading was officially included in the regulatory supervision, the rising logic of micro-cap stocks weakened, so the dark horse recently clearly reminded the medium-term risks of micro-cap stocks. Today's sharp drop in micro-cap stocks is not the end of the correction, and the short-term still needs to be guarded against.
Next, let's talk about the insurance sector by the way.
The white line is an important pressure level for the insurance sector, and the last wave of rebound is a pullback when it encounters the pressure of the white line. I think today's rally is an over-bearish rebound, rather than a reversal of the medium-term market, because the fundamentals of the insurance sector have not officially reversed, and it is difficult to support its continued bullishness. The net profit of the five major insurance companies that have published annual reports has declined year-on-year. Insurance performance in the fourth quarter of last year was generally not very good, and there is no sign of recovery for the time being.
If you look at it from a medium-term perspective, I think the insurance sector is a high-quality track, which is determined by China's economic fundamentals, and the industry is still far from the ceiling. The position and valuation of the sector are relatively low, and there is no problem with medium and long-term fixed investment, but it is still necessary to be cautious if the heavy position is reversed.
3. Big technology differentiation, opportunities approaching?
After continuous adjustments, there are new trends in the technology track. 5G, CPO, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, Hongmeng, Internet and other sub-sectors fell greatly, while semiconductors and CNI chips performed more resistantly.
The significance of the differentiation of the technology market from a high level to a low level is different. At a high level, sentiment boiled, turning from a general rise to a differentiation, which is a manifestation of the lack of bullish power and the recovery of bearish power. At a low level, sentiment is sluggish, and it turns from a general decline to a differentiation, which is a manifestation of the bulls' strength beginning to recover and the bears' lack of attack.
Judging purely from the trend of the disk, the technology track began to fall and decelerate, which is a leading signal to stop falling. However, due to the overall environment of the market, the stop fall may have to be delayed, and the long and short changes in the disk should be paid attention to. If there is a clear signal to stop falling, I will post an analysis in a timely manner during the session.
Second, the finishing touch
1. CSI 300
The third "National Nine Articles" particularly highlight the construction of the investment side, promote listed companies to enhance investment value, continue to expand long-term investment strength, increase delisting supervision, further reduce the value of "shell" resources, strengthen transaction supervision, and promote the smooth operation of the market, etc., which not only lays the foundation for the future growth of A-shares, but also has a significant impact on the market style.
On the whole, the new version of the "National Nine Articles" is more favorable to the value of big blue chips, big white horses, industry leaders and other value targets, and the previous "speculation and new speculation" and high-frequency quantification will gradually be corrected, so as to cultivate market value investment, long-term investment concepts, strengthen long-term investment strength, and enhance the internal stability and value attributes of the market. From this perspective, the CSI 300 has benefited significantly as a representative index of China's core assets and the cornerstone of A-share value investment.
After the implementation of the comprehensive registration system, there will be more and more A-share listed companies, and now there are more than 5,000, and it is not ruled out that there will be more than 8,000 in the future. Institutional investors are more in pursuit of investment certainty, and will give priority to the selection of large blue chips and big white horses with stable operation and strong anti-risk ability, and a large number of small and micro companies will be marginalized by institutions and reduced to "penny stocks".
For individual investors, due to the lack of powerful stock selection tools and advanced stock selection methods, they will also tend to choose those well-known big blue chips and big white horses. Because these value blue-chips are very recognizable from industry leaders, they will be remembered as soon as a certain industry is mentioned. Just like when we mention liquor, we will think of Moutai and Wuliangye for the first time, SMIC for the first time when we mention chips, Yili for the first time when we mention milk powder, and Midea and Gree for home appliances for the first time. Therefore, the implementation of the comprehensive registration system will be more conducive to the CSI 300 in the long run. Borrowing from the long bull market of U.S. stocks, it is actually brought up by well-known leading companies such as Microsoft, Google, and Apple. The long-term bull path of A-shares in the future is likely to be the same.
In the previous round of bear market, the CSI 300 plummeted 48%, the largest decline since 2009, and the adjustment was quite sufficient, PE and PB valuations have fallen below 2018/2016/2014 and other important lows, at a low level in more than 10 years, and the medium and long-term investment value and cost performance are very prominent. This is also the main reason why mainstream funds have bought hundreds of billions of yuan in CSI 300 ETFs in recent months.
2. Precision medicine
AI is on fire, high-dividend assets are on fire, pro-cyclical is on fire, gold brass is flying to the sky, but why is there no movement in medicine and medical care?
First of all, to clarify my view: I am firmly optimistic about the current allocation value and medium-term market potential of the medical industry, not only will I not consider reducing my position, but I will increase my position in batches.
It's not that I'm bullish on it because I hold healthcare, it's that the fundamentals of the healthcare industry make me have to be bullish on it.
First, the fundamentals are solid and the industry is highly certain.
As a rigid social demand industry, pharmaceutical and medical care is backed by a huge market of 1.4 billion people in China, and few industries can compare with it in terms of certainty. Even if it is a very iron liquor, it can't compare to it. One can not drink alcohol, but not without seeing a doctor. This is also the fundamental reason why institutional investors such as public offerings, private placements, social security, insurance funds, and foreign capital, as well as individual investors such as Super Bullsan prefer the medical industry.
Second, the growth potential is huge, and the long-term growth is outstanding.
The pharmaceutical and medical industry is related to human life and health, and itself has long-term growth, which is very obvious in the US stock pharmaceutical giants.
For example, Novo Nordisk, a world-class pharmaceutical giant, has walked out of a 37-year cycle of upward trend since 1988.
As the world's second largest economy and the most dynamic emerging economy, China has a population nearly four times that of the United States, and the pharmaceutical industry has broader development potential, which is 108,000 miles away from the industry ceiling.
Looking at the world, among the top 20 world-class pharmaceutical giants in terms of total market capitalization and sales, not a single Chinese pharmaceutical company has been shortlisted. This gap reflects the huge growth potential of China's pharmaceutical and medical companies. China's pharmaceutical and medical market is too huge, and if nothing else, China will have the world's top 10 and top 20 pharmaceutical giants in the next two or three decades.
Third, the valuation is low, the location is low, and the cost performance is high.
This round of bear market medical plummeted by 69%, the largest decline in history, equaling the extraordinary 2008, and the adjustment has been extremely sufficient in terms of space.
The current valuation of healthcare has fallen below the lows of the previous two bear markets and is in the historic big bottom zone, and the value of medium- and long-term investment is very prominent. If the current position is used to erase the high point of the last round of bull market, there is more than 2 times the increase, and after the 69% plunge, I don't think it has much room to fall, and from the perspective of return and risk comparison, the current cost performance is already very high.
I am more optimistic about the precision medicine index in the big health track, which has a greater decline than CSI Medical, more adequate adjustment, and wider industry coverage, including almost all subdivisions of the big health industry except traditional Chinese medicine, and well-known leaders such as chemical drugs, biological drugs, innovative drugs, and medical devices.
In the afternoon, the index rose and fell, and the market still had short-term adjustment pressure, as far as the index was concerned, I think there was little room for downward movement, and the risks were mainly concentrated in individual stocks, especially the strong stocks that had risen sharply in the short term should be careful to make up for the fall.
Finally, please give a thumbs up, give encouragement and support, thank you very much!
The above content is personal opinion only and is not intended to be instructive. The mention of individual stock funds is only to record market views and the actual operation process, and accumulate materials for future creations, without making any recommendations, please do not blindly follow up. Past performance is not indicative of the future and investors should be aware of the risk of market volatility.